Anyone else feeling so confused by this cycle?

[wbrocks67]

I think we're in unchartered territory, and I think a lot of the punditry of "well it's a D in power so the Rs will have a red wave" is such antiquated thinking.

2016 was truly a turning point for politics. Especially with the turbo charged turnout we have seen since. When you combine that with shifting coalitions (college+ whites, who are highest to turn out midterms historically now voting more D than ever), on top of the SC decision, it truly changes the entire game.

I've said this before in other threads, but I think the biggest thing that pundits are missing is that historically, with turnout, the party in power has usually lost bc their side just doesn't turn out. That's pretty much the gist, the party out of power gets mad and upset and turns out. That calculus is just not happening this year. If anything, the D side can almost claim that mantle just as much as Rs given the SC decision. I think that's why you see now the GCB at parity, and the special elections have borne that out.

[wbrocks67]

I feel (and I'd be interested in seeing if this is actually true) that there a fewer polls than there were at this point in 2018.

100%. Some of these races have been lucky to get 1 poll in the past 2 months.