How the Kansas result changes the GOV landscape...

[wbrocks67]

IMO, the one thing the Kansas result showed is that this position of incredulous abortion restrictions is not going to work out for GOP governor candidates this fall, even moreso than Senate races.

You have Michels/Kleefisch, Mastriano, Dixon, Lake, etc., with all untenable positions on abortion in swing states that are even more pro-choice than Kansas was.

Not just that, but in Michigan in particular, you will likely have an abortion amendment on the ballot, which given the KS results, is a complete boon for Whitmer at this point (let alone Dixon's comments on no exceptions for rape or incest)

[wbrocks67]

IMO, the one thing the Kansas result showed is that this position of incredulous abortion restrictions is not going to work out for GOP governor candidates this fall, even moreso than Senate races.

You have Michels/Kleefisch, Mastriano, Dixon, Lake, etc., with all untenable positions on abortion in swing states that are even more pro-choice than Kansas was.

Not just that, but in Michigan in particular, you will likely have an abortion amendment on the ballot, which given the KS results, is a complete boon for Whitmer at this point (let alone Dixon's comments on no exceptions for rape or incest)

Its likely a boon for any Democrat in Michigan.

Michigan could be a real bright spot for Ds this year. GOP has horrific candidates (Dixon, Gibbs, etc.), while not only the abortion amendment helping turnout, but with all of that, the MI state legislature also has the fairest map it's seen in years.

[wbrocks67]

Michigan is Lean D, bordering on Likely D at this point.

Kansas is pure tossup/tilt R. Laura Kelly has a serious shot at winning re-election after this.

It will be interesting to see how Schmidt messages at this point. He was pro "YES" but it seems he hedged on further talk of what he would do about abortion pre-primary.

[wbrocks67]

GA is an interesting one. If Abrams can harness this issue, she may improve her chances quite a bit. It doesn't seem like it really has hit people in GA that Kemp has already signed in super restrictive abortion restrictions, so the onus is on her to make sure they know.

[wbrocks67]

RE: the PA amendment - looks like the earliest it would be on the ballot would be for next years primary.

[wbrocks67]

GA is an interesting one. If Abrams can harness this issue, she may improve her chances quite a bit. It doesn't seem like it really has hit people in GA that Kemp has already signed in super restrictive abortion restrictions, so the onus is on her to make sure they know.

The problem is that standing up to Trump already moved the Overton Window on Kemp. He looks like a moderate and is an extremist, which is actually an incredible position to be in for the POTUS nomination in 2024, if he can sneak past Trump and Desantis

This is true, though recent polling seems to indicate that it's fading a little bit. Abrams needs to really push though to make it fade completely.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, not much. We’ve seen many times how people vote for the Democratic position in referendums while still voting Republican. We saw quite a bit of this in 2014. The problem for Democrats isn’t their stances on the issues, it’s their image, as well as how ineffective they are at governing.

Not really sure you can go after Ds and their "image" in these particular races, since Whitmer, Shapiro, Evers, etc., are not the ones with image problems in these states compared to their R counterparts.

[wbrocks67]

The post-Roe landscape may honestly have saved Sisolak and Masto tbh.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, not much. We’ve seen many times how people vote for the Democratic position in referendums while still voting Republican. We saw quite a bit of this in 2014. The problem for Democrats isn’t their stances on the issues, it’s their image, as well as how ineffective they are at governing.

Not really sure you can go after Ds and their "image" in these particular races, since Whitmer, Shapiro, Evers, etc., are not the ones with image problems in these states compared to their R counterparts.

These image problems often affect all or at least a majority of Democrats, though.

Sometimes. But again, these particular candidates have also crafted their own personal message/brand outside of the national Ds. There's a reason Shapiro, for example, has nearly a +20 favorability in PA. That stuff will matter in these gov races.

[wbrocks67]

This helps Whitmer and Evers meaningfully given the total bans hanging in the balance there.  Probably helps Shapiro in PA, too, even though a ban isn't really in the cards there.  IDK if it helps or hurts Kelly.  The Kansas moderates could either stay angry at R's or alternatively feel safer voting straight ticket R in the fall knowing that state level abortion rights are now safe. 

Bottom line, it looks like there are more soft pro-choice Trump voters than we thought.

huh? If Mastriano wins, the republican state legislature will absolutely pass a ban.

[wbrocks67]

This helps Whitmer and Evers meaningfully given the total bans hanging in the balance there.  Probably helps Shapiro in PA, too, even though a ban isn't really in the cards there.  IDK if it helps or hurts Kelly.  The Kansas moderates could either stay angry at R's or alternatively feel safer voting straight ticket R in the fall knowing that state level abortion rights are now safe. 

Bottom line, it looks like there are more soft pro-choice Trump voters than we thought.

huh? If Mastriano wins, the republican state legislature will absolutely pass a ban.

Take a look at the makeup of the PA state supreme court and their rulings in recent politically charged decisions.
 There's about a 99% chance they would block the ban from ever taking effect.

Where is the info that they could even block it once the governor signs it? Even if it's possible for them to do so, you don't just leave those things to chance.

[wbrocks67]

It doesn't indicate any shift, truly. The two party primary vote was still 62-38 in favor of the GOP in Kansas. Just further proof that ballot measures like this and minimum wage increases can decisively pass while voters send Republicans to higher office.

Not sure how you can say that when in 2018, with competitive statewide races, two party primary vote was R+34. This year, with no big competitive Dem marquee races, it was R+24. That's a huge shift considering Rs advantage in KS.

And they have closed primaries too, so Indies were only allowed to vote in the amendment.