AK-AL Special election: Peltola wins!

[wbrocks67]

When will we know the Alaska special election results?

8/31 is when they tally everything up

[wbrocks67]

It appears there is likely at least 8-12K additional votes to count too.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1563012092260921344

Wasserman phrased it weird, but Palin needs to be ranked 2nd in 32,500 of the 50,000 Begich ballots. Pelota could pull this off.

That's assuming all of Begich's votes transfer. Assuming nothing else is left, ultimately, Palin needs somewhere between 65-70% of Begich's transferable second preferences to win (with 50k - which won't happen - she needs 65%; with 40k, she needs 68%; with 35k, she needs 71%; etc).

Realistically, Peltola could still win with one-third (or slightly less) of Begich's transferables.

Not sure if you meant this in terms of nothing else being left, but there still roughly 8-10k left to count.

[wbrocks67]

I Hope if Peltola wins, Sabato and Cook are going to f***ing update their ratings

eh, I expect them to be overly cautious all the way up until Nov. They still seem to really not understand this environment.

[wbrocks67]

okay... well then how many are actually left then

[wbrocks67]

Honestly I’m just gonna wait another 2.5 hours and then we’ll know.

This. If there's another 900 ballots, cool, even better for Peltola. But we might as well just wait to see what happens at this point

[wbrocks67]

Red wave cancelled!

The fact that Peltola was only shy ~2% of Bidens 2020 share and then now has won shows that yes, Palin being a horrific candidate meant something, but this shouldn't have even been possible in an alleged "red wave" environment with Biden as president.

Also LOL @ Jotline Hosh coping so bad on Twitter.