Looking back at their final polls, they seem to have overestimated Biden by about 4-5 points in most swing states which was about as bad as most pollsters were.
And midterms?
My recollection is that they first polled in 2018 with a limited but successful record. They were also successful in the 2020 Dem primaries, before having their unsuccessful 2020 general election.
Sounds about right from my recollection.
Personally IMHO most pollsters performed pretty crappy in the 2020 GE so I don't give tons of street cred to any of these, let alone in an off-year and odd-year GOV election in VA.
The odd years can be boiled down to enthusiasm, motivation and certainty of vote. The polls that include this measurement are best. In 2017, Northam voters were more interested (52%) and certain to vote (53%) while Republicans were not as motivated (Mid-40s). Trumps disapproval was around 52-53% at the time. The final result was 53.9% to 45%. Emerson, Monmouth and Trafalgar have written on the issue in recent polls. The certainty that voters will come out for your candidate will better indicate how voters are reacting to a variety of issues like candidate policies and approval ratings. Trump had a 53% disapproval rating in Virginia when Republicans lost in 2017, and most voters in New Jersey were motivated to remove Corzine (48.5-44-5) from New Jersey in 2009 cause 56% of them wanted to lower property taxes and end corruption.
I've never had an issue guessing races with dozens of polls providing the above information. You just need look inside Emerson, Monmouth, Q, Marist, Mason and Trafalgar.
No it was not. It was 57% in VA, according to exit polls, and pretty close to that nationally as well.
