Oregon Governor Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, Johnson seems more and more like a quack and a dud the more her "campaign" continues.

[wbrocks67]

Who is donating to Johnson for her to get $10M?? Similarly, Drazen with $6M?

Senate candidates in swing states can barely raise $1-3M and Christine Drazan can raise $6M? Huh?

[wbrocks67]

This might actually be one of the spots where a Biden visit with Kotek would do more good than harm tbh.

[wbrocks67]

It sounds like the debate was illuminating in that Johnson clearly showed she's the crazy dingbat that she is, and clearly playing spoiler here.

[wbrocks67]

To be fair, the Kotek internal, and the Drazan one IIRC still had Johnson in high double digit teens. I would expect if Johnson sinks below <10% that a lot of that support would go to Kotek, but I guess we'll need to wait for further polling.

If Biden successfully helped nationalize the race, I think that will ultimately be helpful for Kotek.

[wbrocks67]

The final EV in OR in 2020 was about D+12, so if Dems can keep it close where they are now, they should be fine.

[wbrocks67]

You wonder if this is where it falls apart for Johnson - the final two weeks of the race has Kotek spending $3.1M, Drazan $1M, and Johnson only $266K.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1585719832128913408

[wbrocks67]

Do we know what the final EV total was in 2018?

[wbrocks67]

I meant what was the final VBM total ("early vote") going into Election Day. Target Smart has these by voter registration:

2018: 1.86M (42.0% D, 30.3% R, 27.7% other)
2020: 2.38M (39.8% D, 28.8% R, 31.1% other)

[wbrocks67]

What are your final thoughts on OR-04, 5 and 6 based on this?

[wbrocks67]

Very curious how Kotek did in OR-04, 05, and 06

[wbrocks67]

Interesting! So I'm gonna assume Kotek definitely lost OR-05 and OR-06 then, if she was only +2 in OR-04