NM-01 Special Election Prediction and Margin

[wbrocks67]

Some of these predictions are... interesting. Dems lead nearly +30 in the early vote. Republicans would have to make up a LOT of ground on Election Day for the outcome to even be <15

[wbrocks67]

Some of these predictions are... interesting. Dems lead nearly +30 in the early vote. Republicans would have to make up a LOT of ground on Election Day for the outcome to even be <15

For once,  I was actually right. Not sure why people in here were predicting anything less than 15, let alone 10, for Stansbury when the early vote was literally Dem +28.

[wbrocks67]

Some of these predictions are... interesting. Dems lead nearly +30 in the early vote. Republicans would have to make up a LOT of ground on Election Day for the outcome to even be <15

For once,  I was actually right. Not sure why people in here were predicting anything less than 15, let alone 10, for Stansbury when the early vote was literally Dem +28.

2016/2020 polling PTSD, also TX-06 PTSD.

Not even the polling though - we had concrete early vote data and a history of NM-01 being a very mail-in type of district (both 2020 and 2021 had <30% on election day). Sometimes the data can tell you a lot if you don't ignore it.

I could see people guessing like Stansburry +17 or something, but anyone doing less than even Stansbury +15 were not paying attention.