2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Yahoo/YouGov now has D+7, double from their last poll

But perhaps most importantly, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that 45% of registered voters now say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, versus 38% who say they would vote for a Republican — a 7-point gap that has nearly doubled since last month. And when explicitly asked to choose between a “pro-choice” Democrat (47%) and a “pro-life” Republican (32%), that same gap actually doubles again, to 15 points.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-confidence-in-supreme-court-collapses-as-just-33-agree-with-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-090021689.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Sorry but you are very gullible if you think there’s any chance of a D+7 vote this year and a D+15 vote in any year

the way people on this forum just miss the point...

[wbrocks67]

Yahoo/YouGov now has D+7, double from their last poll

But perhaps most importantly, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that 45% of registered voters now say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, versus 38% who say they would vote for a Republican — a 7-point gap that has nearly doubled since last month. And when explicitly asked to choose between a “pro-choice” Democrat (47%) and a “pro-life” Republican (32%), that same gap actually doubles again, to 15 points.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-confidence-in-supreme-court-collapses-as-just-33-agree-with-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-090021689.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Sorry but you are very gullible if you think there’s any chance of a D+7 vote this year and a D+15 vote in any year

the way people on this forum just miss the point...

I got the point and I agree that the popular vote could have gone from R+6 to R+2, the same shift they are implying. I was more questioning  why you would post such a laughable poll with no commentary or analysis unless you actually work for the DNC

Because this is the Generic ballot poll thread and this is a new generic ballot poll. Are you dense? I'm sorry that the result is not to your liking, oh well.

[wbrocks67]

Yahoo/YouGov now has D+7, double from their last poll

But perhaps most importantly, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that 45% of registered voters now say they would vote for a Democrat for Congress if the election were held today, versus 38% who say they would vote for a Republican — a 7-point gap that has nearly doubled since last month. And when explicitly asked to choose between a “pro-choice” Democrat (47%) and a “pro-life” Republican (32%), that same gap actually doubles again, to 15 points.

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-confidence-in-supreme-court-collapses-as-just-33-agree-with-decision-to-overturn-roe-v-wade-090021689.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

Sorry but you are very gullible if you think there’s any chance of a D+7 vote this year and a D+15 vote in any year

the way people on this forum just miss the point...

I got the point and I agree that the popular vote could have gone from R+6 to R+2, the same shift they are implying. I was more questioning  why you would post such a laughable poll with no commentary or analysis unless you actually work for the DNC

Because this is the Generic ballot poll thread and this is a new generic ballot poll. Are you dense? I'm sorry that the result is not to your liking, oh well.

Let me rephrase. Post all the hack polls you want, but I think you should at least occasionally accompany them with some kind of commentary (other than the implied “Blue wave incoming!”). Everybody here knows that a pro-life R would never lose by 15 points to a pro-choice D, so it’s a waste of time unless there’s a new point to be made. The point of the forum is for quality discussion, not convincing us all that we’re always in a blue wave.

Again, I have no idea what you're talking about. This thread is for POLLS. This was a new poll, from YouGov, not a hack outlet, so I posted it here. Please don't police what I should or shouldn't post in here. Again, just because you don't like what the poll is showing doesn't mean you need to lash out.

[wbrocks67]

Wonky result from YouGov/Economist - their GCB remains at R+5 for a second week, but Ds have a 2pt advantage on both the questions of "what is your preferred senate/house outcome this year" ....

Also genuine question - is this thing weighted between age groups? Their sample contains only 150 people who are <44 years old but 620+ people who are >44 lol

(also makes crosstabs essentially useless for many categories including <44, blacks, hispanics, etc.)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/uhxw71f4tf/econTabReport.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Wonky result from YouGov/Economist - their GCB remains at R+5 for a second week, but Ds have a 2pt advantage on both the questions of "what is your preferred senate/house outcome this year" ....

Also genuine question - is this thing weighted between age groups? Their sample contains only 150 people who are <44 years old but 620+ people who are >44 lol

(also makes crosstabs essentially useless for many categories including <44, blacks, hispanics, etc.)

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/uhxw71f4tf/econTabReport.pdf

Yes it is weighted. It is a professionally done poll.

The GCB is moving a few points to the Dems at the moment, possibly as a result of Dobbs. Given that polls are random sampling, a zero week to week change in some polls is to be expected, along with the movement to the Dems in some of the other polls.

also of note, the approval for SCOTUS overturning roe in this poll is 43/50, way closer than any other poll I've seen.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1542228065123811329

Any guesses?

I would guess Ds taking the senate/ adding seats?

[wbrocks67]

voters think state legislatures are the best forums to decide abortion policy (44%) followed by Congress (31%) and the Court (25%)

sure, in theory. but this is not reality, when state legislatures are going extreme and banning it outright or banning it without any exceptions for rape, incest, etc.

leaving it up to the states, if the states were actually sensible about it, is a hypothetical good idea. but it's not what it's actually happening when you leave it up to them.

[wbrocks67]

voters think state legislatures are the best forums to decide abortion policy (44%) followed by Congress (31%) and the Court (25%)

sure, in theory. but this is not reality, when state legislatures are going extreme and banning it outright or banning it without any exceptions for rape, incest, etc.

leaving it up to the states, if the states were actually sensible about it, is a hypothetical good idea. but it's not what it's actually happening when you leave it up to them.

Problem is that what you consider ‘sensible’ doesn’t align with a big chunk of the countrys’ position on this issue.

I think the biggest takeaway from this poll is that people don’t want the court to just go back and forth on legislating this. People want Congress to come to an agreement on guidelines for when abortion must and must not be legal.

If Dems would get their sh**t together and support the Collins-Murkowski legislation that’s already been proposed publicly, they could really turn the screws on Rs and make some serious progress on this issue. It’s possible that they could even convince one or both of them to support temporarily removing the filibuster on issues of civil rights, and use that as a tool to force McConnell to the table.

Instead Dems won’t accept anything other than the extreme legislation proposed by Klobuchar that very little of the country agrees with. The vast majority of Americans do not want third trimester abortion to be legal outside of very rare exception cases, and most want us to move to the European standard. Dems could force this to become the main topic of discussion for months on end if they pursue a legitimately popular platform on this topic all summer long, and use that as a cudgel against Rs in November to boot. Plus, if you win and force concessions from McConnell, then R base voters will be angry at their candidates and Biden’s approvals should rise.

It’s such an obvious move that it’s honestly pathetic that Dems can’t just get their sh**t together and accept that third trimester abortion is just not popular. People basically perceive it as murdering babies, largely because that’s basically what it is. It’s also a minuscule portion of actual abortions - from a practical perspective, ensuring that abortion is legal through 15 weeks and legal always during exceptional cases will cover 98-99% of abortions currently performed. The last 1-2% of abortions I don’t even personally agree with being legal, and even if I did it’s not a political hill worth dying on.

You're trying very hard to act as if Rs somehow have a leg up on this discussion when they do not. Voters are generally with Democrats on this issue. Most voters were fine with Roe v Wade being the law of the land.

If you honestly believe Murkowski or Collins would ever help blow up the filibuster with Ds then I don't know what to say honestly.

[wbrocks67]

Monmouth tied at 47-47, was R+4 in May

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_070522/


Harvard-Harris also tied at 50-50

https://harvardharrispoll.com/key-results-june/

[wbrocks67]

and now Rasmussen at 50-50

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1544349237571371015

[wbrocks67]

NVM looks like 538 entered the Harvard poll as Rasmussen, so now its fixed.

[wbrocks67]

The GCB question in the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker had an error and has been removed from their data for surveys prior to this week, with the following disclaimer:

The results for the question, "If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" that were previously included in this document are no longer being reported after YouGov discovered a programming error that resulted in some registered voters not being asked the question. Since the people asked were not a representative sample of all registered voters, the data does not meet YouGov’s standards and has been removed.

The problem has been corrected for this week's survey, which shows D 43, R 40.

Would make sense why it randomly shifted to R+5 the past few weeks.

Though 43-40 is still useless though with so many undecideds, ugh.

[wbrocks67]

The GCB question in the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker had an error and has been removed from their data for surveys prior to this week, with the following disclaimer:

The results for the question, "If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" that were previously included in this document are no longer being reported after YouGov discovered a programming error that resulted in some registered voters not being asked the question. Since the people asked were not a representative sample of all registered voters, the data does not meet YouGov’s standards and has been removed.

The problem has been corrected for this week's survey, which shows D 43, R 40.

Would make sense why it randomly shifted to R+5 the past few weeks.

Though 43-40 is still useless though with so many undecideds, ugh.

Yes, it would.  I've dropped a note to 538 suggesting they remove the broken ones from their database.

Would also make sense as we noted last week - there was a huge disparity between the "preferred outcome" questions (D+2) and the GCB question (R+5)

Hopefully 538 drops them.

[wbrocks67]

Malinowski (NJ-7) raises $1.3M in Q2, has $4.2M cash on hand

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/malinowski-scores-humungous-fundraising-haul-in-nj-7-re-election-bid/

[wbrocks67]

> Pat Ryan (D, NY-19) raised over $1M in the 6 weeks since announcing his campaign; nearly 40% of which came in the week following the Dobbs ruling

> Susan Wild (D, PA-07), raised over $1M in Q2, contributions online from new donors doubled after Dobbs ruling

https://www.axios.com/2022/07/06/democrats-roe-v-wade-fundraising

[wbrocks67]

The GCB question in the Economist/YouGov weekly tracker had an error and has been removed from their data for surveys prior to this week, with the following disclaimer:

The results for the question, "If an election for U.S. Congress were being held today, who would you vote for in the district where you live?" that were previously included in this document are no longer being reported after YouGov discovered a programming error that resulted in some registered voters not being asked the question. Since the people asked were not a representative sample of all registered voters, the data does not meet YouGov’s standards and has been removed.

The problem has been corrected for this week's survey, which shows D 43, R 40.

Would make sense why it randomly shifted to R+5 the past few weeks.

Though 43-40 is still useless though with so many undecideds, ugh.

Yes, it would.  I've dropped a note to 538 suggesting they remove the broken ones from their database.

I got a reply that said they were going to keep the problematic polls in the database for now.

I was wondering, since they hadn't been removed yet. Total bad call by 538, the polls own organization said the data was terrible, so I can't imagine a single reason why they would need to keep them in at all.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1545147318533513216

[wbrocks67]

538 still refusing to remove the wrong YouGov/Economist polls.

[wbrocks67]

Hoping that this NYT/Siena national poll eventually has a GCB in it... assuming they're just reporting different poll results each day to milk it for all its worth

[wbrocks67]

NYT/Siena has RV at D+1, 41-40, while in LV, it's R+1, 44-43.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/13/upshot/poll-2022-midterms-congress.html?smid=tw-share


Morning Consult/Politico has D+4, 46-42.

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/07/12125609/2207038_crosstabs_POLITICO_Adults_v2_07-13-22_SH.pdf

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist has D+3 today, 43-40

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/sdsvy1azjc/econTabReport.pdf?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=website_survey

[wbrocks67]

What is the change for Morning Consult/Politico?

Looks like last one was D+3, 45-42 on 6/24-25

[wbrocks67]

New Yahoo News/YouGov

Adults - D+5, 37-32
RV - D+4, 43-39

https://www.scribd.com/document/582412021/Yahoo-News-Survey-20220708#fullscreen&from_embed

[wbrocks67]

Yikes, Vega only raised <$250K in Q2. Spanberger has $4.9M COH, she has $246k.

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1548037238092468224

[wbrocks67]

Some PA #s

PA-01
Fitzpatrick (R) - $407K raised, $1.03M COH
Ehasz (D) - $166K raised, $147K COH

PA-06
Houlahan (D) - $679K raised, $5.57M COH
Ciarrocchi (R) - $118K raised, $194K COH

PA-07:
Wild (D) - $891K raised, $3.1M COH
Scheller (R) - $415K raised, $1.19M COH

PA-08:
Cartwright (D) - $826K raised, $2.73M COH
Bognet (R) - $516K raised, $580K COH

PA-17:
Delizio (D) - $420K raised, $348K COH
Shaffer (R) - $701K raised, $937K COH (loaned campaign at least $500K in June)