2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Absolutely nothing for AZ, NH, WI. Still having to spend ~$4M in NC and OH. Curious.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1587578512621248516

[wbrocks67]

Of note that CNN and Marist are both closer among RV - CNN is R+1 and Marist is tied.

Politico/Morning Consult at D+5 again this week, 47-42

[wbrocks67]

"Republican pollsters are flooding the zone with pro-GOP polls to skew the averages" is technically true (and these polls may wind up being "accurate" even if they aren't conducted well, the two aren't necessarily correlated) but the bigger warning sign is that Democratic candidates/groups aren't responding to it with their own numbers. And I guarantee you, they haven't stopped polling.

It doesn't really seem to be a lot of Republican internals, though, per se. We've seen a few from Walker and the NRSC, but the majority that I think most people are thinking of are Trafalgar, IA (for American Greatness, etc.), Wick, co/efficient, that usually do work for GOP clients but aren't necessarily GOP internals.

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist tied among RV (48-48) and LV (49-49)

Shows how groups will shape the race - Q-pac's universe has Ds only +4 among 18-34 year olds and Rs +4 with Latinos

YouGov's universe has Ds at +27 among 18-29 year olds and +29 among Latinos

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/2a0eir3enp/econTabReport.pdf

The latter is closer to what you'd expect, given recent elections, but we shall see!

[wbrocks67]

We have a general consensus among RV, with outliers in two directions:

Polticio/MC: D+5

NewsNation: R+1
CNN: R+1
YouGov: tied
Marist: tied

Quinnipiac: R+4

A lot of the other variation lies within LV models

The Split Ticket guys have a "nonpartisan" poll aggregator that has it around R+0.4 I think right now. I've said for a while now I think the overall average is close to a tie, and that seems to be about right right now.

[wbrocks67]

Look, if we're gonna get trash from Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and IA injected into the average, then Big Village is welcome too!

[wbrocks67]

The YouGov/Yahoo one also has D+2, 49-47, among those "already voted/will definitely or probably vote"

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1588185745671405569

D +14 sample..

Interesting.

However, the vote recall for 2020 is Biden +6, so the Independent sample being more GOP leaning makes up for that.

If you account for it being +1.5D too much over 2020, you get closer to the tie that YouGov/Economist found.

[wbrocks67]

Barrett is now tied with Slotkin per Mitchell Poll

Democrats are facing a WIPE-OUT in the House.

Biden made a collossal misjudgment yesterday Night with his Speech. All what he did is probably "Supercharge" E-Day Turnout among Trump Voters even more.

If Slotkin is tied, that's basically what the 2020 result was in that district. So that would mean Dems are basically duplicating 2020 results there. How is that a wipe-out?

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen drops their final(?) GCB poll - R+5

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1588552860362747907

[wbrocks67]

This is pretty interesting - it was taken all across the month of October (sample size is insane), but what is the most interesting is that every one of the people who was interviewed didn't get polled on "generic" D or R, they got polled on their specific congress person in their district.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1588224064463716354

[wbrocks67]

I have no idea if Civiqs will bear out, but it is interesting that this thing has been steady for a very long time.

https://twitter.com/DrewLinzer/status/1588599108151148544

[wbrocks67]

Final NBC poll also shows about a tied race. ABC/Wapo gives Rs an extra pt in LV, while NBC gives Dems an extra pt in LV.

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1589256512941486086

[wbrocks67]

It’s very annoying that Selzer does a national poll, but only in March and September(?) and not before actual major elections.

Also, it’s a minor point, but do people not realize that “internals” and partisan polls are not the same thing?  The vast majority (like 90-95%, at least this cycle)  of partisan polls in the RCP/538 averages are not internal campaign polls, they are polls done by partisan firms intended for public consumption.

Exactly- a point that Nate Cohn has understood but people like Silver seem to be misunderstanding. No one is claiming that Trafalgar, IA, Co/efficient, Wick are "internals". But they ARE GOP-aligned or GOP-adjacent. Democrats don't really have outfits like this, other than like GSG or GBAO, and they mainly stick to internal polling themselves with little to no public releases. Internals have been pretty rare for both sides this cycle.

[wbrocks67]

The ABC and NBC results aren't really that crazy, in that again, most of the nonpartisan pollsters have averaged out to a close tie most of the time (we just had a ton of them converge on R+1/tie/D+1 in the last week or so, and these two are no different)

Civiqs has been a bit more bullish for Dems, as has Morning Consult/Politico.

Morning Consult's midterm tracker though is tied, while YouGov/Economist is tied now too. Yahoo has found closer to D+2 while CBS/YouGov has been closer to R+2.

Essentially, when you cut out all of the outliers, everything has generally been close to a tied result. Even the last ABC/Wapo and NYT/Siena polls were close to a tie among RV; it was their LV models that were a bit outlier-ish.

[wbrocks67]

Wasserman kind of touching on it, but amazing that none of the pundits have even touched the fact that almost all of the nonpartisan house polling looks.... surprisingly good for Dems. Of course, it goes against their narrative so I'm not surprised.

[wbrocks67]

The ME-02 result is... odd? Considering even if Golden doesn't win outright, he's likely to win b/c of the Independent vote going for him in the 2nd round.

Cartwright losing also kind of goes against all the stuff we've seen from that district polling wise.

Quite a bit of curious choices on there.

[wbrocks67]

The ME-02 result is... odd? Considering even if Golden doesn't win outright, he's likely to win b/c of the Independent vote going for him in the 2nd round.

Cartwright losing also kind of goes against all the stuff we've seen from that district polling wise.

Quite a bit of curious choices on there.

They are both running in Trump districts in a year that will prolly be worse than 2020 for Dems. Yes they have both made an effort to distance themselves, but with the way things are looking, Golden may need like a 12 point overperformance of partisanship which is quite tricky though not impossible.

I mean I'm literally just going off of public polling, all of which has had Cartwright and Golden ahead.

[wbrocks67]

From what I'm getting from Split/Ticket, Cook, and Crystal Ball, is essentially them saying the polls are wrong in GOP's favor lol. Because the GCB and specific house polling is not really correlating with their general predictions.

[wbrocks67]

Last minute GCB polls-

Morning Consult/Politico: D+5 (48-43) - was D+5 last week
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/07/voters-blame-democrats-poor-economy-inflation-00065325

YouGov/Economist: D+1 (47-46) among RV, R+1 (49-48) among LV - was tied last week
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/pyh97ixj6q/econTabReport.pdf

[wbrocks67]

Data for Progress one is weird, basically this last one comes down to them assuming there's going to be major R turnout.

Their last poll had R+4 overall, but Rs winning Indies by 11 (52-41). They had about equal # of Ds and Rs sampled for turnout.

This last one has R+4 overall again, but Ds now winning Indies by 4 (52-48). It remains stable overall because now they have a R+4 sample edge.

So essentially comes down to turnout, if GOP actually has a huge turnout edge.

[wbrocks67]

The language is a little more complicated, but I still read the implication that Walker could win on the night. And I don’t see that squaring with a CCM win.

Warnock has also led most of the nonpartisan polling (Emerson, NYT/Siena, Marist) or been tied (ECU, Research, etc.) Walker has mostly only led in non-partisan polling.

[wbrocks67]

I'm quite baffled by the PA change. It sure is close, but Oz has led in *1* nonpartisan poll, and it was by a single point. He hasn't been able to top 48% in any poll besides one (and that was the CBS/YouGov where people were essentially forced to pick).

Even the GOP polls that have him winning only have him at 47-48%, which certainly seems like his ceiling.

Seems like their just going off of the "PA polls overestimate Democrats" usual thing.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RonBrownstein/status/1589767818895319040

We've seen this pretty consistently - all of the Latino-only polls this cycle have generally been around D+25-30. This also lines up with Civiqs too FWIW (D+27)

Not sure who is right, but it's interesting that both Latinos and young voters are considerably more Dem when we get these big sample polls vs. the small subsamples.

[wbrocks67]

Ipsos finally pushed people, FWIW

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1589757424323682306