2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

It's extremely odd that AZ-02 is competitive but Dems don't seem to want to bother in AZ-01 and AZ-06, both tiny Biden districts. I know they need to focus on their incumbents, but it also seems hard to imagine that the GOP is running away with it in 01 and 06 too.

If Dems lose House by 3-6 seats and its bc AZ-1, CA-45, NE-2, NM-2 don't flip, there are going to be real questions. The Dem establishment just has a bad attitude in general, there is no killer mentality.

To be fair, they seem to be investing heavily in NE-02 and NM-2. Unfortunately the first two don't seem to be a priority.

[wbrocks67]

I don't remember there being such a wide range of results in GCB polling in 2018 or 2020. We're seeing anything from D+4 to R+6. Those are extremely different results!

The only polls that have hit that high are Trafalgar, Harris, and Rasmussen, though. Most of the GOP leads have typically been R+1-3 if they are found.

[wbrocks67]

That Ipsos poll has literally gone back and forth for weeks now, I kid you not. It oscillates between D+4 and D+1 every other week.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the RV i believe is more or less the same as last week (D+1) but the LV model moved from D+2 to R+1 this week.

They give a really nice glimpse in their poll of who exactly is a "likely voter" - I wish all pollsters did this. It's essentially whoever says they have already voted, "definitely voting" or "Probably voting".

In terms of demographic groups, this is who they deem a LV:

Men - 59% yes, 41% no
Female - 63% yes, 37% no
Whites - 67% yes, 33% no
Black - 51% yes, 49% no
Hispanic - 46% yes, 54% no

18-29 - 29% yes, 71% no
30-44 - 47% yes, 53% no
45-64 - 72% yes, 28% no
65+ - 91% yes, 9% no

2020 Biden voters - 87% yes, 13% no
2020 Trump voters - 89% yes, 11% no

Democrats - 66% yes, 34% no
Republicans - 76% yes, 24% no

So LV model shifted because it thinks there is a Democratic collapse in turnout compared to Republicans, mostly seemingly because it does not expect 18-29 year olds to be a likely voter.

[wbrocks67]

As for how it breaks down to “I have already voted”, “Definitely will vote”, and “Probably will vote” totals

Males: 64%
Females: 69%

Whites: 72%
Blacks: 56%
Hispanics: 56%

18-29: 42%
30-44: 51%
45-64: 75%
65+: 92%

2020 Biden voters: 88%
2020 Trump voters: 90%

Democrats: 74%
Republicans: 79%

So again, this is why GOP has an advantage in LV model this week - their intention to vote is larger for those 3 categories. Democrats have a rather large "Maybe will vote" (8%) compared to Republicans (3%)

[wbrocks67]

Zooming out to see the bigger picture-

538 GCB average

June 19: R+2.3
July 19: R+1.7
August 19: D+0.5
September 19: D+1.4
October 19: D+0.3

A lot of hay has been made of GOP momentum, but we're... essentially where we were two months ago, and in the same place we've been for three months now (Tied-D+1-ish)

[wbrocks67]

Zooming out to see the bigger picture-

538 GCB average

June 19: R+2.3
July 19: R+1.7
August 19: D+0.5
September 19: D+1.4
October 19: D+0.3

A lot of hay has been made of GOP momentum, but we're... essentially where we were two months ago, and in the same place we've been for three months now (Tied-D+1-ish)

I think a lot of people set their expectations too high or misunderstood what a neutral environment might look like. A lot of people were acting like we're in a 2012/2018 style environment, but the people who think we've reverted to a 2010/1994 style environment are also wrong.

It's a 2016/2020 style environment. That means Republicans win the House, probably not more than 20-25 seats. Democrats likely keep the Senate, but they could still lose it if a lot of races are close.

A 2016/2020 style environment would average out to like D+1 though, (which is where the average is pointing us), and that would mean a probably pretty close House result, wouldn't it? (I feel like Ds need to win by 2 to have a chance)

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs steady,

D+4 among RV (49-45) and D+3 among LV (49-46)

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2022?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[wbrocks67]

DailyKos/Civiqs poll:

How likely are you to vote in the general election this November?
Democrats: 92% (definitely will vote/already voted)
Republicans: 92% (definitely will vote/already voted)

Including “probably” will vote pushes Democrats to 97%, Republicans to 96%

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_monthly_banner_book_2022_10_3n84fh.pdf

Some polls show this to be equal, some have Dems slightly ahead, others have Reps slightly ahead. I almost wonder if it's just how it's worded or the particular sample.

[wbrocks67]

CNBC has R+2 on GCB, 48-46

Was tied in September, R+2 in August

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1583059484192419841?s=46&t=L6ZgwgtdIOnSjYx1PxpqNg

If the GCB average is to be believed, we're essentially back to where we were in August overall, essentially

[wbrocks67]

CNBC / Hart is good for the GOP. +2 in RV. GCB on 538 will cross back into the red in the next few days it seems.

Will probably today if Monmouth finds an R lead.

They found R+2 in September, D+3 in August among RV.

[wbrocks67]

CNBC / Hart is good for the GOP. +2 in RV. GCB on 538 will cross back into the red in the next few days it seems.

Will probably today if Monmouth finds an R lead.

They found R+2 in September, D+3 in August among RV.

I actually think Monmouth is likely to be unchanged. They just got an R friendly sample in September, which might not happen again even if there’s some actual movement. I’m thinking R+3 on RV, which might not be enough of a swing to change it.

Yeah, I'm interested to see where it goes once the 1-2-3 punch of Trafalgar, Rasmussen and Harris' +5-7 polls are cycled out of the average. We've seen tiny movement in some of the trackers this week (Politico/YouGov-Econ) while others have stayed steady (MC tracker/YouGov-Yahoo)

[wbrocks67]

CNBC / Hart is good for the GOP. +2 in RV. GCB on 538 will cross back into the red in the next few days it seems.

Will probably today if Monmouth finds an R lead.

They found R+2 in September, D+3 in August among RV.

I actually think Monmouth is likely to be unchanged. They just got an R friendly sample in September, which might not happen again even if there’s some actual movement. I’m thinking R+3 on RV, which might not be enough of a swing to change it.

Monmouth is R+4. Of course Dems will lose if they only win moderates by 6, lose white college by 1 and lose 35-54 by 16 as this poll suggests. It is worth wondering if they’ve lost some white college support since August. A few polls suggest this.

Yeah, this poll is essentially a worst case scenario for Dems. It has them losing White College by 1 and even losing *Women* by 1, 47-46.

[wbrocks67]

Under the hood, the differences are pretty stark from their last poll to now:

September - Men were R+18 (54-36) and Women D+10 (51-41)
Now - Men are R+9 (52-43) and Women R+1 (47-46)

September - White college+ were D+20 (58-38)
Now - White college+ is R+1 (49-48)

September - White non-college were R+30 (62-32)
Now - White non-college are R+22 (58-36)

[wbrocks67]

One thing that is interestingly largely consistent is the delta between Biden approval in online pollsters and live-caller pollsters.

The "high quality" live caller pollsters like NYT/Siena, Monmouth, and ABC/Wapo have all found Biden's approval around 39% and closer to between -16 and -20.

Meanwhile, most of the online pollsters have found it closer to the 45% range. Average remains about -9 in the 538 RV/LV average (44/53)

[wbrocks67]

Oh now the usual suspects believe the polls, lol.

Dont believe in polls, believe in fundamentals.  They’ve all been pointing in the same direction the entire year.

This isn't true, but okay.

[wbrocks67]

Under the hood, the differences are pretty stark from their last poll to now:

September - Men were R+18 (54-36) and Women D+10 (51-41)
Now - Men are R+9 (52-43) and Women R+1 (47-46)

September - White college+ were D+20 (58-38)
Now - White college+ is R+1 (49-48)

September - White non-college were R+30 (62-32)
Now - White non-college are R+22 (58-36)

Huh, what do we think accounts for a nine point shift --> D in the male vote? Actually come to think of it, what accounts for an eleven point shift --> in the female vote?

Just sampling variance, though the shifts in both are still really large.

[wbrocks67]

Oh now the usual suspects believe the polls, lol.

Dont believe in polls, believe in fundamentals.  They’ve all been pointing in the same direction the entire year.

I mean, you can also look at special election results that occurred when the CGB was even worse for Dems, what does that tell you?

Low turnout special elections are not fundamentals.

They should be taken into account, however.

They were incredibly indicative in 2018, and they were also indicative in 2021 - NM-01 represented a good environment for Dems, Fall 2021 clearly represented a worse one for Dems.

[wbrocks67]

If y'all really want to believe that it's an R+6 environment, be my guest.

Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, etc. would not be competitive in that environment.

[wbrocks67]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

[wbrocks67]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode). 

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

[wbrocks67]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode). 

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

The GOP is the clear favorite to win the House lets be honest. That said, usually by now in a wave you begin to see polls with challengers pulling away with a clear edge and we really haven't so far. Golden, Wild, Axne would be well behind by now (even with a GOP polling bias) in a 2010 type year and yet they are at worst still in the game.

Oh 100%. That's why I think the average being about a tie to D+1 lines up a lot with what we're seeing, and also lines up with a very close House but a small R edge in the house.

[wbrocks67]

The irony is that anytime there is a D+1 poll or something, no one cares, but suddenly when there is an outlier like R+6, suddenly that's the only poll that matters.

I have to laugh that many of these same people were crapping all over Monmouth for being terrible and now suddenly they are the gold standard(TM) of polling results.

Was Monmouth "the one where the guy said he wouldn't do more polls because he botched the 2021 New Jersey Gubernatorial election?" (which is also the title of my favorite FRIENDS episode). 

Yes. And I'm not saying Monmouth is wrong. But I think it's hypocritical for the many people who have also discounted Monmouth went they've had favorable results for Ds to now suddenly believe them when it finds a good result for the GOP.

There are plenty of results that we continue to get that show we are not in an R+4 or R+6 year. Hell, we just got a poll out of Pennsylvania with a *D+2 GCB*. You're not getting that in a "red wave" year. But at this point, it's just choose what you want to believe.

The GOP is the clear favorite to win the House lets be honest. That said, usually by now in a wave you begin to see polls with challengers pulling away with a clear edge and we really haven't so far. Golden, Wild, Axne would be well behind by now (even with a GOP polling bias) in a 2010 type year and yet they are at worst still in the game.

In 2014, there were no Dem incumbents well behind at this point in the House.

2014 =/= 2022

[wbrocks67]

The only reason the Emerson poll really moved:

https://twitter.com/rudnicknoah/status/1583406825663533056

[wbrocks67]

I'm not liking a lot of what I'm seeing.

Yep, Democrats are doing what they do best, choking at just the wrong time. Leadership needs a full cleaning out after this election.

This kind of stuff makes no sense. Democrats are focusing on the same thing now that they were in September, and the same thing that they were focusing in on August.