2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

The Economist/YouGov tracker has the GCB at D+5 (45/40) this week, up from D+4 (43/39).

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/xeu4apb94g/econTabReport.pdf

POLITICO/Morning Consult also at D+5 this week, 46-41. Margin unchanged from last week (47/42)

[wbrocks67]

I’m not sure what’s going on in AZ-2, but something definitely is imo.  Between that Republican internal showing (IIRC) Crane up by only like 1%, the NRCC dumping money on this district, and now this, it’s clear this race is more competitive than expected.  That said, I kinda wonder what might account for this as this doesn’t seem like a place where Dobbs would cause an especially strong shift and while O’Halleran has run many a competitive race, he always struck me as a pretty generic/unremarkable backbencher.  Thoughts?

Could be totally off, but I wonder if the entire GOP statewide ticket is hurting the party across the board? Maybe Kelly is giving off some coattails to everyone else? It does seem odd that this race in particular would be competitive, bc on paper it really shouldn't be. I only say this bc they moved AZ-01 in Ds direction too.

[wbrocks67]

Greenberg have D's ahead GCB 50)47

https://democracycorps.com/national-surveys/winning-a-cost-of-living-election/

June 2022: R+2 (49-47)
July 2022: D+2 (50-48)
Sept 2022: D+3 (50-47)

[wbrocks67]

Am I right that basically every poll shows the Democrats tied or leading the generic ballot at this point? I think the only ones that do not are fake polls run by far-right Republicans (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, etc). And yet the consensus continues to be that Republicans are favored? Everyone is just assuming there will be a huge polling miss (there was not in 2018) or a sudden shift to the GOP (Labor Day was over two weeks ago and still no sign of this at all).

Yep, the only ones currently showing a R lead recently are Traf, Rass, OnMessage (GOP internal push poll), and Data for Progress.

So 1 internal, 2 that have historically overrated GOP, and 1 that has been rather GOP-leaning this cycle.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1572938450835279872

[wbrocks67]

Marquette's new national poll also finds D+6, 47-41

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1572947273255768064

[wbrocks67]

I’m excited for when the GCB is like D +2 and most people are truly expecting the house to hold. It’ll make for a great meltdown, even better than it would have been before when we were heading for R+7

We could still be on track for this

I mean, the house could very well hold. It was D+3 in 2020 and that was with a small margin of seats, so D+2 with a new map that is the tiniest bit better for Ds than the last one could produce a D house.

[wbrocks67]

I’m excited for when the GCB is like D +2 and most people are truly expecting the house to hold. It’ll make for a great meltdown, even better than it would have been before when we were heading for R+7

We could still be on track for this

I mean, the house could very well hold. It was D+3 in 2020 and that was with a small margin of seats, so D+2 with a new map that is the tiniest bit better for Ds than the last one could produce a D house.

Not the point. My point is that D +2 GCB almost certainly means a republican popular vote win because that left slant has happened every election of this generation except for one. Also:

1) How predictable it was that the GCB would always end up here

2) How Atlas is so receptive to “good news” and so skeptical of “bad news”

It's confusing to me why people continue to discount 2018, the literal last midterm, just to push whatever narrative they want

[wbrocks67]

"Premise" has D+12 on the GCB, 46-34 lol

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20220922_US_Premise.pdf

Bumps 538 average up to D+2.0.

Funky poll, has GCB at D+12 but Biden only +2 in a 2024 rematch and his approval at 41/51 lol.

[wbrocks67]

Good news: the 538 general ballot is now D+2.0, the highest since last November.

Bad news: the last time Democrat’s had this “big” of a lead, they lost VA and almost NJ

I feel like the VA and NJ races FWIW were very outside of what was going on nationally and very specific races. VA had a ton of local headwinds while Murphy also had to contend with NJ not usually being willing to re-elect a sitting Dem gov.

I think to the PA result where the Supreme Court race was R+1, which lined up perfectly with a national GCB of D+2, compared to 2020 (Biden wins by 1 with +4 nationally)

[wbrocks67]

Cygnal (R) has GCB tied, 47-47

same as their last poll in August

https://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/September-Cygnal-National-Deck.pdf

[wbrocks67]

It's also worth noting that universal swing isn't real. Even people expect neutral national environments have many Biden + 5-10 seats rated as tossups while a few Trump seats are also tossups.

Given the specific dynamics in VA and NJ, they likely voted slightly to the right of what you'd expect given the true "National Environment". I also feel like that Pennsyalvania SC Court race isn't really fair to use because of how much less partisan that sort of election is and the lower turnout. Also somebody above said that race was R+1 which isn't true, it was R+5 which while isn't as brutal of a shift for Dems, still isn't great.

The Supreme Court elections are just as partisan. People knew McLaughlin was the D and Brobson was the R, and the ads reflected that.

There was also nearly 2.8M turnout which I wouldn't call "low turnout"

Also, yes it was R+1. It was Brobson 50.45, McLaughlin 49.55.

[wbrocks67]

It's also worth noting that universal swing isn't real. Even people expect neutral national environments have many Biden + 5-10 seats rated as tossups while a few Trump seats are also tossups.

Given the specific dynamics in VA and NJ, they likely voted slightly to the right of what you'd expect given the true "National Environment". I also feel like that Pennsyalvania SC Court race isn't really fair to use because of how much less partisan that sort of election is and the lower turnout. Also somebody above said that race was R+1 which isn't true, it was R+5 which while isn't as brutal of a shift for Dems, still isn't great.

The Supreme Court elections are just as partisan. People knew McLaughlin was the D and Brobson was the R, and the ads reflected that.

There was also nearly 2.8M turnout which I wouldn't call "low turnout"

Also, yes it was R+1. It was Brobson 50.45, McLaughlin 49.55.

You’re on the ground so I trust you on stuff like ads, but ballotpedia says it was R + 5. I tried looking for a site that said otherwise but couldn’t find anythibg

LMK if this works - https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/General/SummaryResults?ElectionID=84&ElectionType=G&IsActive=0

That's the most up to date, the DOS website. I think ballotpedia and places like NYT also just stopped counting after that night (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/11/02/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html)

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen GCB R+2, 44-42. It was R+1 last week, 43-42

https://t.co/qKl4PHUAz5

[wbrocks67]

McLaughlin has GCB at R+4, 48-44.

Funny enough, at the same time they have Biden's fav at 49/49 and job approval at 48/50 lol.

[wbrocks67]

ABC/Wapo coming out of retirement. New poll release tonight at midnight.

CBS battleground tracker will have an update Sunday morning too

[wbrocks67]

I don't see an LV model in this poll?

What I will say is that the poll has Biden -16 in approval among RVs, which is significantly off from the -8 (44/52) average it's sitting at on 538 right now.

This was also rather... surprising:

Democrats hold a 10-point advantage among women under age 50, down from a 32-point lead ahead of the 2018 election.

Bit of an anomaly considering what we've seen with other polls, motivation of women post-Dobbs, and the specials.

[wbrocks67]

ABC/WashPo has R+1 with registered and Rs getting 18% of the black vote and Trump 23% in 2024. The topline isn't at all odd but if you expected a quality poll that made sense, this won't be it. We are going to have historic uncertainty on election day with all these polling misses the past 5 years.

Yeah, them also having Trump +2 in the 2024 rematch is also giving me major pause among other things. Given what has happened this year, especially with Trump, having Trump doing a whole 6% better than 2020 is... a result.

[wbrocks67]

ABC/WaPo is 51-46 R for LVs. Which would be a big change from what the specials have shown, but that’s not impossible.

I can’t emphasize this enough, but I really don’t think it would be so much a "big change" from the specials as an entirely different electorate. Very important distinction, and also why I really caution people against reading this much into special elections.

Fair point, but looking at the last several elections, what has been a better indicator of Election Day: special elections or the generic ballot polling? We can be cautious about special elections, but we need to be even more cautious about polling. ABC’s LV screen isn’t the gold standard.

This LV screen increasing R performance seems at odds with your point that special elections would be more D than the general election. Who is a more likely voter than someone who shows up for a special?

Where is the LV screen? I don't see any in the crosstabs.

[wbrocks67]

For reference, the CBS battleground tracker forecast was

July: R 230 - D 205
August: R 226 - D 209

[wbrocks67]

ABC/WaPo is 51-46 R for LVs. Which would be a big change from what the specials have shown, but that’s not impossible.

I can’t emphasize this enough, but I really don’t think it would be so much a "big change" from the specials as an entirely different electorate. Very important distinction, and also why I really caution people against reading this much into special elections.

Fair point, but looking at the last several elections, what has been a better indicator of Election Day: special elections or the generic ballot polling? We can be cautious about special elections, but we need to be even more cautious about polling. ABC’s LV screen isn’t the gold standard.

This LV screen increasing R performance seems at odds with your point that special elections would be more D than the general election. Who is a more likely voter than someone who shows up for a special?

Where is the LV screen? I don't see any in the crosstabs.

I’ve only seen it in the reporting as 51-46 for R. Is it really not included in the data?

Unless there's a tab I'm not seeing, I don't see it. They have it broken down by adults and RV, but no LV.

[wbrocks67]

Actually wait, I found it - it's in the article but wasn't in the crosstabs

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-struggles-party-democrats-2024-poll/story?id=90427262&cid=social_twitter_abcnp

[wbrocks67]

Women younger than 40 support the Democratic candidate in their district by 19 points, but did so by 43 points in the 2018 exit poll.

If this actually happens, yes, the GOP is winning. But given everything we have seen, I don't imagine this being the case.

[wbrocks67]

I love how everyone just decides that the most recent poll that they’ve seen is the most accurate, even if it’s only a day or two after another poll

Like just look at the reaction to Wisconsin polling

Barnes+2 = Democrats may pull this off, it’s a tossup!

Johnson+1 = Titanium Ron Jon can’t be beaten… Democrats are fools for investing in this race.

Exactly - R+1 / R+5 is a pretty big outlier compared to what we've been seeing but I'm not surprised that a few people here now accept this is as the "real" result and the last month of polling to be wrong.

[wbrocks67]

July: R 230 - D 205 (R+25)
August: R 226 - D 209 (R+17)
September R 223 - D 212 (R+11)

GCB is R+1 here, was R+2 in August, and R+4 in July.