2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Fox has GCB at R+3, 44-41.

They had it at R+3 in June as well, 47-44.

https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-voters-say-economy-bad-expect-get-worse?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab&mibextid=CqRI5M&fs=e&s=cl

[wbrocks67]

Are Republicans even trying?

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1548692194030194689

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1548728935118041088

[wbrocks67]

Money doesn’t vote for f**ks sake.

Of course it doesn't. But people really trying to pull this "money doesn't matter!" narrative are just being incredibly naive. Of course it matters, and it especially matters in competitive races.

So funny now that Rs are doing badly in the money race and all of a sudden fundraising makes no difference.

[wbrocks67]

Fundraising numbers used to be a good publicly-accessible metric for how much support various candidates have amongst their own partys’ establishment. The problem is that as Democrats have garnered more and more of the college white vote, they’ve also begun massively outspending Rs on the campaign trail (especially since 2016), particularly at the senate level. We have seen the results amongst a more partisan, online-oriented electorate (where it is cheaper than ever before to get your message out), and they’ve been…not great.

Dems lit hundreds of millions on fire in senate races they didn’t come within even eight points of winning in 2020 (see: SC, ME, KY, etc.).

The reality is that while in-state dollars matter a little, out-of-state fundraising can often be actively counterproductive due to opening up an easy new line of attack for your opponent. And Dems have way more mega donors than Rs do these days, which is not translating to results in many places.

So no, the fundraising numbers don’t really matter all that much - we’ve seen this show before. If you could dig up in-state fundraising dollars though, that would be way more interesting.

I think metrics like the Fetterman/Oz race are definitely points that stand out, as in you have one candidate raising $5M worth of contributions <$200 and the other... $150K.

I think the point here is that even as Dems get more of the upper middle class/college+ vote, you'd still expect Rs to be doing well since this should be an incredibly easy environment for them to raise $$$. If they can't raise it during a midterm where Bidens approval is <40%, then that is a terrible look for them imo.

And it's not like Rs cant raise money. Look at Louisiana - Kennedy raised $8M+. Scott raised $4M+ in SC. Johnson raised $6-7M in WI. It's not like it's not possible - so to me, it's rightfully a bad look when others in competitive swing races are barely doing anything.

[wbrocks67]

The GOP thinking it has a chance in PA-06 and PA-12 is... a lot.

But the NRSC also tried to say they would aim for Dean in PA-04 too, so.

[wbrocks67]

CNN/SSRS has GCB at 46-46 (same poll has Biden 38/62 approval)

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/19/politics/cnn-poll-midterms/index.html

This is pertinent too:

The overwhelming majority (88%) of voters who approve of Biden plan to vote Democratic in this year’s midterms; among voters who disapprove, 70% plan to vote Republican and 19% to vote Democratic.

[wbrocks67]

Why is this forum so obsessed with the of Biden disapproving democrat voters? It’s obvious that they exist, it’s not physically possible for democrats to only get 38% of the vote. I believe this is a decent pollster but it’s obvious the undecideds will break R for multiple reasons:

1) This is apparently a registered voter poll even though CNN acknowledges in the article that R’s lead in enthusiasm and motivation

2) The usual midterm electorate already gets whiter than presidential elections and this will be even more so the case this year based on polling. Various polls have shown minorities being apathetic towards Biden, more focused on the economy than culture issues, and in some cases even shifting republican

3) The super majority of undecideds are still Biden disapprovers. Not only do they outnumber Biden approvers almost 2-1 to begin with, but a higher percentage of them are still undecided compared to approvers, based on CNN’s wording. There’s a good chance these people break heavily Republican or just stay home. Yet Dems on this forum truly believe that undecided disapprovers are somehow loyal Dems

There’s actually no undecided here. It’s 46-46 and then 2% for “other candidate”, 5% for “neither candidate” and 2% for “do not plan to vote”.

The highest demo with other/neither is 18-34 for 12%, so realistically that group will likely choose in the end, and more likely to be the D than R.

The Biden approve’s total share of Other/Neither/Don’t plan to vote is 5% while Biden disapprove is 11%, so the Rs do have some upside there. But it would equal out likely to just a pt or two.

[wbrocks67]

Why is this forum so obsessed with the of Biden disapproving democrat voters? It’s obvious that they exist, it’s not physically possible for democrats to only get 38% of the vote. I believe this is a decent pollster but it’s obvious the undecideds will break R for multiple reasons:

1) This is apparently a registered voter poll even though CNN acknowledges in the article that R’s lead in enthusiasm and motivation

2) The usual midterm electorate already gets whiter than presidential elections and this will be even more so the case this year based on polling. Various polls have shown minorities being apathetic towards Biden, more focused on the economy than culture issues, and in some cases even shifting republican

3) The super majority of undecideds are still Biden disapprovers. Not only do they outnumber Biden approvers almost 2-1 to begin with, but a higher percentage of them are still undecided compared to approvers, based on CNN’s wording. There’s a good chance these people break heavily Republican or just stay home. Yet Dems on this forum truly believe that undecided disapprovers are somehow loyal Dems

There’s actually no undecided here. It’s 46-46 and then 2% for “other candidate”, 5% for “neither candidate” and 2% for “do not plan to vote”.

The highest demo with other/neither is 18-34 for 12%, so realistically that group will likely choose in the end, and more likely to be the D than R.

The Biden approve’s total share of Other/Neither/Don’t plan to vote is 5% while Biden disapprove is 11%, so the Rs do have some upside there. But it would equal out likely to just a pt or two.

You’re missing the biggest problem with this poll, which is that it is RV rather than LV, which is near-inexcusable at this point. Enthusiasm gap matters at this point. It’s also weighted to a presidential general electorate in terms of race, which is ludicrous.

I don't think LV would change much here, maybe a pt or two. They have GOP and Dem "motivated to vote" at nearly the same level

[wbrocks67]

Politico/Morning Consult has GCB at D+4, 45-41, similar to last week

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/07/19133716/2207093_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_07-20-22_SH.pdf

YouGov/Economist has it D+3, 43-40

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1549746177981251586

[wbrocks67]

Quinnipiac GCB: D+1 among RV (45-44)

First time Dems have lead with Q-pac since Sept 2021. Last poll was R+5 in June, R+4 in May, R+3/4 in April

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3852

[wbrocks67]

Biden also has a 31% approval rating in that poll. Crazy stuff.

I mean the crosstabs are pretty whacky. They still have 18-34 year olds at like 25/63 approval and then Latinos at like 19/71. (yet Latinos are near equal on GCB for ex)

[wbrocks67]

AARP poll of likely voters in 56 competitive congressional districts has R's up 46-42 in districts which voted for Biden by 6.

https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/research/surveys_statistics/politics/2022/aarp-targeted-congressional-districts-survey-voters-18-older.doi.10.26419-2Fres.00550.033.pdf

Trump having a 50/49 approval in districts that averaged Biden +6 is.... something.

[wbrocks67]

Forget about the GCB Horse Race for a minute.

Midterm Elections are BASE ELECTIONS.

Even if Democrats in some of the Polls have a slight lead underlining in it and nobody is willing to talk about it is the large Enthusiasm Gap between the two Parties. According to a Marquette Law School National Poll Republicans enjoying an 18-Percentage Point Voter Enthusiasm Gap.

CNN has the GCB tied in their latest Poll but they have Republicans enjoying a 12-Point Gap in Voter Enthusiasm.

VOTER ENTHUSIASM matters a lot more the than GCB Horse Race Numbers as we get closer to the Election.

oof gurl give it a REST

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1550197073055711237

[wbrocks67]

Emerson down to R+1. Trendline tells the story

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1550420731858673665

[wbrocks67]

538 still refusing to remove those wrong YouGov GCB polls

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1550469729726365697

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen making sure that R+0.9 538 average didn't stay for long!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1550490139956285443

[wbrocks67]

Last Ras was R+8 last week

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen making sure that R+0.9 538 average didn't stay for long!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1550490139956285443

I increasingly think that these polls are just straight up fake.

Something something expanding mind.

Pro tip: all polls are fake. Pollsters know that they won’t get called out on anything other than their final numbers so they basically sh**tpost for months in an effort to help their favored candidates then release real polls the Monday before the election.

Yeah, no. The bottom line here is that I agree that Ras is likely fake. The only polling organization to afford to do a weekly poll/GCB is YouGov because they have a giant organization. Gallup couldn't even afford to do it daily or weekly. So how does Rasmussen afford to do, what, 2500, every 3 days? Or whatever rolling basis their doing on? Given their ridiculous crosstabs (that are always behind a paywall), I truly believe Ras is actually making them up.

[wbrocks67]

Rasmussen making sure that R+0.9 538 average didn't stay for long!

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1550490139956285443

I increasingly think that these polls are just straight up fake.

Something something expanding mind.

Pro tip: all polls are fake. Pollsters know that they won’t get called out on anything other than their final numbers so they basically sh**tpost for months in an effort to help their favored candidates then release real polls the Monday before the election.

Yeah, no. The bottom line here is that I agree that Ras is likely fake. The only polling organization to afford to do a weekly poll/GCB is YouGov because they have a giant organization. Gallup couldn't even afford to do it daily or weekly. So how does Rasmussen afford to do, what, 2500, every 3 days? Or whatever rolling basis their doing on? Given their ridiculous crosstabs (that are always behind a paywall), I truly believe Ras is actually making them up.

Ras polls the same group of people over multiple days, that’s how they do it. Ras is no more fake than any other pollster, and their record has been better than most in recent years. The reason you don’t like them is that their methodology includes an assumption of a ‘shy R’ vote, merely because it has become apparent in recent years that that is in fact a thing that happens.

With that being said, Ras has an R agenda, like most pollsters have an agenda. Trusting any numbers this far out is silly, since most polls are released for political rather than accuracy reasons.

this is a joke, right?

They are known as the pollster who would have Trump with 30-40% approval of Black voters. They had the GCB at R+1 in 2018 on election eve. Come on.

And your last point is not even true, since most of the GCB polls we get/have gotten are generally parts of regular trackers/regular polls that are frequent throughout the month/weeks.

[wbrocks67]

Watch the polls FAIL like in 2020!

The generic ballot showed a lead for the Democrats just as Youngkin and other fellow GOP members were romping their way through otherwise blue-ish states. I trust them about as much as Alex Jones atm.

Youngkin ran in 2020?

My point was that 2021 showed a continuation from 2020 of polls consistently overestimating the blue team, especially at the broader national level. So I expect a similar outcome this November.

I asked this twice for the people on here fully trusting generic ballot and arguing that 2020 doesn’t prove that the underestimation is systematic. Nobody has a good answer for it. The “environment” had to be something like R+8 at that time in order for those results to have happened. You can argue that Virginia and New Jersey had some unique state-specific issues, but it was also all over the country in local elections such as R’s easily winning Jacksonville/Duval and the Long Island races. The generic ballot at the time was literally a D lead

You said your own point though - it was state specific. Youngkin won by more than the R did in the PA marquee Supreme Court statewide race.

The national polling average for Biden's approval at the time also lined up perfectly with the exit poll in VA.

Not just that, but you're cherrypicking results. There were also results that same night that were good for Ds as well

[wbrocks67]

Cygnal (R) has GCB tied now at 47-47.

Their last poll in mid-June had R+4, 49-45.

https://www.cygn.al/july-national-voter-trends-panel/

[wbrocks67]

Politico/Morning Consult GCB steady at D+4, 45-41

https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2022/07/26150218/2207127_crosstabs_POLITICO_RVs_v1_07-27-22_SH.pdf

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1552306482934419459