CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[wbrocks67]

All of the congressional results are insane to me. How in the hell did Dems not even win in some of these suburban seats? Was there really ticket splitting or expecting a president Biden?

Some Dem 2018 recruits held up VERY well and others really sunk. Like Cunningham, what the hell?

Even in VA, shocked that Luria hung on by nearly 5 while Spanberger is tied up.

But in places like IN-05 and MO-02, there's no excuse. I honestly don't get it. Dems had the suburubs, the messaging, the $$$. WTF happened?

[wbrocks67]

Lots of mail out still for PA-07 and PA-17, but Lackawanna seems like its done - is Cartwright cooked? That seems almost even more insane to me.

Also, have to see what's left in Dauphin, but Depasquale losing by 10 makes no sense ether.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like Cartwright will be safe. More bail in to go and its essentially tied now.

[wbrocks67]

Gotta say I am pleasently surprised of some of our GOP House Candidates doing well.

GOP Establishment though should be ashamed of themselves by not standing with President Trump at least until he is officially defeated.

The only two people who are standing with him are FL Governor Ron DeSantis and Senator Lindsey Graham.

I mean, if anything GOP house candidates are doing better than thought not because of trump but because voters probably wanted a "check" on Biden. It's clear there were a lot of ticket splitter votes with Biden/GOP house candidate.

Meanwhile, Susan Wild and Cartwright both look safe now in PA, both up 2-3% with mail ins to count. PA delegation will remain 9-9.

Unfortunately Depasquale couldn't even make it work, which despite winning this district in 2016 in his federal race, still couldn't get it now, which again makes me think there were lots of Biden/Perry votes.

[wbrocks67]

It's really interesting which House Dems collapsed but which ones did really well. Luria did really well in VA-02, while McBath nearly up 10% in GA-06.

[wbrocks67]

What's up with the likes of Lauren Underwood & Susan Wild? Looking at the current margins, I'd guess mail-in ballots would probably help them, but does anybody have more insight as to whether or not they'll be saved in the end?

Susan Wild should be okay, but IDK about Underwood

Wasserman thinks Underwood is the favorite. Make of that what you will.

It appears there is a lot of IL mail in ballots out. So those probably take her over the edge.

Rita Hart has now taken the lead in IA-02, albeit by only like 200-300 votes

[wbrocks67]

UT-04
Owens (R) 48.0%
McAdams (D) 47.2%

Given what happened with Dems across the country in swing seats, I'm pleasantly surprised McAdams may actually hang on

[wbrocks67]

Surprised they haven't called Lamb yet. All the votes out will only likely increase his lead.

[wbrocks67]

Lamb now up 2%. Call is imminent, with more Allegheny to come.

McAdams has jumped ahead 3K in UT-04 according to NYT, +0.9%.

Underwood (IL-14) has also jumped ahead by 1%

[wbrocks67]

A couple updates.

CA-21 - 81% in
Valadao (R) 52.1%
Cox (D) 47.9%

CA-25 - 94% in
Garcia (R) 50.1%
Smith (D) 49.9%

CA-39 - 98% in
Kim (R) 50.5%
Cisneros (D) 49.5%

CA-48 - >98% in
Steel (R) 50.8%
Rouda (D) 49.2%

Looks like a clean sweep in CA for Rs.

There are 4M ballots left to count in CA.

[wbrocks67]

CA still has a ton of votes out and we have no idea what's remaining. Who knows how those races will turn out.

[wbrocks67]

You know what's funny, for all the handwringing about Spanberger's close margin, she... got the same margin she got in 2018.

Which, given the trends we've seen in House Dems doing worse than 2018, actually shows that Spanberger is a very good candidate. But was she not expecting a close race? She only won by 2 in 2018 and did the same again this year, even with Trump on the ballot. I just find it funny how in reality, she probably ended up doing better than she should've, given the circumstances.

[wbrocks67]

Given the environment, it would be very impressive if McAdams hung on in the end. (even given Owens is apparently a crackpot)

[wbrocks67]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/margin-in-nj-7-down-to-14405-votes/

Per NJ Globe, Malinowski is up 14K in NJ-07, with 70K uncounted (presumably including provisionals, which are expected to be heavily R). For comparison, he was up by 28K on election night. A lot of the uncounted ballots are from Morris, where Kean has been gaining with each ballot drop. This one isn't over.

Provisionals have varied by state, but not sure where the CW that they are heavily R comes from, as in places like PA, they've been about an even split, even plurality wise benefitting Ds.

I guess NJ is counting in order though? Is that why these late ballots have trended R?

[wbrocks67]

Given what has happened in the House races the last week, it would truly be something if Smith of all people made a come back and won.

[wbrocks67]

It appears Cox and Smith have the best chance to hold on. Rouda and Cisneros though... (I guess Cisneros has a small chance still)

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326146687015006209

[wbrocks67]

Miller Meeks lead now 22 votes. Johnson county showed up with a 14 vote margin from somewhere. The other change was a Pub precinct was missed.

https://twitter.com/LauraRBelin/status/1326041766173302789

Miller-Meeks lead is now confirmed by the Iowa Secretary of State's Office
https://electionresults.iowa.gov/IA/106279/web.264614/#/summary
They have it at 34 Votes.

Do we know how much is outstanding?

[wbrocks67]

I don't think Cunningham will likely come back, but it seems unclear how many ballots are still out in NC. Seems odd they would call it without even getting *any* of the returns. They might as well call GA then?

[wbrocks67]

Marshall County, Minnesota:
Trump +48
Lewis +35

Interesting. Where did Smith underperform Biden so bad to be 2% below him?

[wbrocks67]

NJ is likely close to finish counting soon (they're at about 4M statewide which is the baseline for ultimate turnout in the end), so I don't really see how NJ-07 flips... Malinowksi still up by over 12K votes.

Also LMAO at someone saying Josh Harder will "probably win".... he's currently up by 13%.....

[wbrocks67]

If there are about 40,000 ballots left in NJ-7, Kean would need to win them by something like 65%(napkin math). That seems doable looking at the recent drops, but I don't think it's time to be writing Malinowski's political obituary just yet.

I wonder if there is more than 40k ballots left though. NJ Globe just offers it as an estimate - they seem to have an idea of how many are in Morris and Hunterdon respectively, but there is probably a good number of provisionals to consider in Somerset county as well.

I think Union County probably has around 20k left based on the following - it's reasonable to expect at least 10% more prez votes than 2016, which would equal 245927 prez votes this year. 200561 prez votes are currently counted, would indicate 45366 more to count, currently NJ-07 is 48% of the prez vote, so assuming this rate remains the same it would indicate 22k more votes from the NJ-07 portion of Union County. It could still be fewer votes, but if anything I think it's more likely to exceed this number because turnout is up nationwide and the amount of registered voters has increased by a magnitude of more than 10% from 2016. Overall wouldn't be surprised if outstanding ballots in the district is closer to 60k. Somerset County is currently at 115% of the 2016 total within the district, and Hunterdon and Warren are both at 121% (and both still have some ballots to count).

I don't think there are 40k left. NJ estimated about 4 million total votes, they've basically hit that. I'm sure theres some extra provisionals out and a few more to count, but not nearly enough to change the outcome of the race.

[wbrocks67]

Kean now needs to win the remaining vote by 17.3% assuming there are 49,753 ballots left, could be more as 49,753 is a lower end estimate.

It appears that 50k is a *higher end* estimate:

"But the number could also experience a sudden drop, if a significant number of vote-by-mail voters who tracked their own ballots online also voted provisionally after being unable to verify that election officials had received their ballots.”

We also don't know the composite of what is left. We could still have more GOP-heavy batches left, or this could be a CO situation where we get thru the GOP-heavy batches to then have 50/50 or Dem-leaning batches rounding it out.

[wbrocks67]

Kean now needs to win the remaining vote by 17.3% assuming there are 49,753 ballots left, could be more as 49,753 is a lower end estimate.

It appears that 50k is a *higher end* estimate:

"But the number could also experience a sudden drop, if a significant number of vote-by-mail voters who tracked their own ballots online also voted provisionally after being unable to verify that election officials had received their ballots.”

We also don't know the composite of what is left. We could still have more GOP-heavy batches left, or this could be a CO situation where we get thru the GOP-heavy batches to then have 50/50 or Dem-leaning batches.

Also, how many left are provisionals?  I really doubt the provisionals will be particularly Republican heavy.

Yep, it seems NJ is as bad as PA is with how many are left outstanding.

Also, given that NJ is already past 4 million votes statewide, I doubt there are 50K left in just this district. That would mean there is hundreds of thousands outstanding statewide, which seems... unlikely

[wbrocks67]

Again, it is unlikely there are actually 50K ballots left in NJ-07.

""But the number could also experience a sudden drop, if a significant number of vote-by-mail voters who tracked their own ballots online also voted provisionally after being unable to verify that election officials had received their ballots.”

There's no reason to believe there's all these ballots left in NJ-07 but nowhere else in the state. Because otherwise there would, again, be hundreds of thousands left to count in the state which no signs point to that being the case.

Also, again, we don't know how the rest of the ballots are going to break. Just because they've been breaking GOP up to this point doesn't mean they will continue to do so.

[wbrocks67]

Again, it is unlikely there are actually 50K ballots left in NJ-07.

""But the number could also experience a sudden drop, if a significant number of vote-by-mail voters who tracked their own ballots online also voted provisionally after being unable to verify that election officials had received their ballots.”

There's no reason to believe there's all these ballots left in NJ-07 but nowhere else in the state. Because otherwise there would, again, be hundreds of thousands left to count in the state which no signs point to that being the case.

Also, again, we don't know how the rest of the ballots are going to break. Just because they've been breaking GOP up to this point doesn't mean they will continue to do so.

There are a lot of ballots left in other districts. All of the attention is on NJ-07 because none of the other districts have a chance of flipping. Gottheimer, Sherrill and Kim's margins have all shrunk significantly since Election Night.

Correct, but we don't know how many provisionals are left or what type they are. Like I said, they could get more GOP. But we've noticed this in other states, where as the count continues, GOP continues to gain, but then they hit a wall when other types of ballots are finalized, and then the ballots get more balanced. We just don't know.