GA HD-132 - Spry Strategies/Georgia House Republican Caucus (R): Trump +6%, Trammell losing

[wbrocks67]

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-moving-toward-a-fenced-in-state-capitol/BOTLEASNIJBZHDFZIPSVP7FON4/

October 1-4
397 likely voters
MoE: 4.8%
Margins calculated pre-rounding

Presidential:
Trump 50%
Biden 44%
Another candidate 0% (but some voters)
Undecided 6%

Pre-rounding, Jenkins leads by 8 in the state legislature's race.
David Jenkins (R) 48%
Bob Trammell (D-inc.) 39%
Unsure 13%

Trammell won this district 52.2%-47.8% in 2018.

So Trammel went from winning by 4.4% to losing by 9? Junk this.

[wbrocks67]

Trump won here by 3 points in 2016.

Junk this even further then

[wbrocks67]

The same poster who appears to be triggered by this poll showing Trump up 6 in a Kemp +2 district, defended the Quinnipiac poll that had Biden up 21 in Maine.

Pretty sure I never "defended it" and said that that poll was a slight outlier, but we had already gotten Biden upper double teens in that state before so it really wasn't that much of one.

Trump *improving* on his margin from 2016 by 3% anywhere is clearly outlier territory.