ME Colby College: Gideon +4 (Senate), Golden +23 (CD 2)

[wbrocks67]

I believe the last Colby poll had Gideon +5, so about the same. They asked second choice but really wish they did a full RCV model.

[wbrocks67]

Golden +23??   That's crazy, how is that possible?

It's not that far-fetched, some of it may be due to name recognition, but Northern Maine still regularly elect Democrats downballot. There is still a lot of ticket-splitting going on there. Just look at the 2018 elections:

State Senate District 1 (Trump +7) reelected Sen. Troy Jackson (D) 60-39
State Senate District 2 (Trump +30!!) reelected Sen. Michael Carpenter (D) 51-49

Also it appears Crafts has literally no $$

[wbrocks67]

Golden is not winning by 23. I think it's safe to say that he's favored and could very well overperform Biden by a decent margin, but I don't buy that number at all. It is a bit concerning that Gideon is underperforming Biden by 7.

She was always going to underperform Biden. Collins is still gonna lose IMO but she won't lose by Trumps margin.