CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 6,159,023
Dems: 3,290,338 (53.4%)
Reps: 1,490,420 (24.2%)
Ind/Other: 1,378,265 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (32%), Reps (28%), Ind/Other (21%)

Total ballots returned = 6,433,721
Dems 3,414,683 (53.1%)
Reps 1,577,062 (24.5%)
Ind/Other 1,441,976 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (33%), Reps (30%), Ind/Other (22%)

[wbrocks67]

New analysis of In-person vs Mail via Paul Mitchell (Political Data):

One topic on the show was if there would be a surprise in the later ballots to be cast.  As I mentioned in my Saturday email, our first look at the in-person voting will come today as we receive and process the votes cast in-person at the states thousands of vote centers that began over the weekend. One could suppose that if the Republican surge was to come, it would be seen in these first large-scale in-person opportunities.

From the data we received, we can drill into the early vote from this weekend in LA and Orange County to look for any differences between the in-person voting and those ballots received by mail. These are the kind of numbers we were expecting:

Los Angeles:

                Mailed Ballots: 63% Dem/15% Rep

                In Person: 40% Dem / 37% Rep

Orange County:

                Mailed Ballots: 41% Dem/35% Rep

                In Person: 19% Dem / 64% Rep

In LA, this shows that Democrats are outpacing Republicans in early vote by nearly 40-points, but the in-person shows that dropping to just 3-points.  In Orange County, Democrats lead in the mailed in ballots by 6-points, but in-person was dominated by Republicans, giving them a 45-point advantage among those voters.

What really is surprising then, given these percentages, is just how the turnout for this past weekend, including both mail-in and in-person votes statewide, really didn’t break for Republicans overall – it broke for Democrats.  And we saw a little bump up for Latinos.

The reason Democrats did better over the weekend, despite the big Republican close with in-person voting is that in-person votes are only a small share of the total ballots cast.

The combined number of in-person ballots we received by these two counties was just 20,000, which is paltry compared to the over 200,000 total ballots reported by the two counties during the same period. Essentially, Republicans are cashing in on the in-person voting, roughly doubling their share of the electorate.  But that’s less than a 10% slice of the electorate.

We always have to be cautious about reading too much into one report, but for the recall proponents, they were probably marking today on the calendar as a key point for the election to start turning around. And the more days that tick by, the harder it gets to change these turnout numbers.

[wbrocks67]

I really hope there is an exit poll here and they are able to insta call race when the polls close. Would be glorious.

Yeah, I would love an exit poll here. Has anyone seen anything on them trying to get one?

[wbrocks67]

Obama is cutting an ad for Newsom, it will be airing everywhere starting tomorrow.

Harris is holding a rally for him today, Biden seemingly Monday

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 6,433,721
Dems 3,414,683 (53.1%)
Reps 1,577,062 (24.5%)
Ind/Other 1,441,976 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (33%), Reps (30%), Ind/Other (22%)

Total ballots returned = 6,568,703
Dems 3,484,138 (53.0%)
Reps 1,613,286 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,471,279 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (34%), Reps (30%), Ind/Other (22%)

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 6,568,703
Dems 3,484,138 (53.0%)
Reps 1,613,286 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,471,279 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (34%), Reps (30%), Ind/Other (22%)

Total ballots returned = 6,786,187
Dems 3,582,405 (52.8%)
Reps 1,679,645 (24.8%)
Ind/Other 1,524,137 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (35%), Reps (31%), Ind/Other (23%)

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 6,568,703
Dems 3,484,138 (53.0%)
Reps 1,613,286 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,471,279 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (34%), Reps (30%), Ind/Other (22%)

Total ballots returned = 6,786,187
Dems 3,582,405 (52.8%)
Reps 1,679,645 (24.8%)
Ind/Other 1,524,137 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (35%), Reps (31%), Ind/Other (23%)

Of note, on election eve 2020, it was Dems +25.5 on Reps. Right now, +28.0, so highly likely we'll head into election eve 2021 with Dems at a higher increase over Reps than 2020.

[wbrocks67]

At this point it feels like anti-recall side is just trying to run up the score as much as possible.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 6,786,187
Dems 3,582,405 (52.8%)
Reps 1,679,645 (24.8%)
Ind/Other 1,524,137 (22.4%)

Turnout = Dems (35%), Reps (31%), Ind/Other (23%)

Total ballots returned = 7,066,468
Dems 3,736,283 (52.9%)
Reps 1,735,670 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,594,515 (22.5%)

Turnout = Dems (36%), Reps (32%), Ind/Other (24%)

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 7,066,468
Dems 3,736,283 (52.9%)
Reps 1,735,670 (24.6%)
Ind/Other 1,594,515 (22.5%)

Turnout = Dems (36%), Reps (32%), Ind/Other (24%)

Total ballots returned = 7,327,713
Dems 3,852,837 (52.6%)
Reps 1,819,002 (24.8%)
Ind/Other 1,655,874 (22.6%)

Turnout = Dems (37%) Reps (34%), Ind/Other (25%)

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 7,327,713
Dems 3,852,837 (52.6%)
Reps 1,819,002 (24.8%)
Ind/Other 1,655,874 (22.6%)

Turnout = Dems (37%) Reps (34%), Ind/Other (25%)

Total ballots returned = 7,757,346
Dems 4,070,655 (52.5%)
Reps 1,931,763 (24.9%)
Ind/Other 1,754,928 (22.6%)

Turnout = Dems (39%), Reps (36%), Ind/Other (27%)

Dems are at +27.6 right now on Reps. Election Eve 2020 was D+26.5.

[wbrocks67]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

Everything is pointing to a 20-22 pt race at this point so I'd say it makes sense

[wbrocks67]

Am hearing from some that in the last week Dems have been so confident of Newsom's safety that they have turned their attention to turning out base voters/low-propensity Latinos in McCarthy/Valadao/Nunes/Issa's districts to flex muscle and show strength going into the midterms.

This is smart. If they can get strong numbers in these districts in an off year 2021 election, it will bode better for them going into next year.

Latino numbers have been the softest across the board so far, so interesting to see if the ground game can tick those numbers up.

[wbrocks67]

These county polls might be picking up what’s about to happen. A tied OC is implying a 20-22 point race. This is also backed up by some of the polling.

Could be.

OC is the only real interest of me for this race right now as the result is already known.

I want to see what happens in some of these D held seats in south oc.

katie porter specifically.

Katie porters district is the reason why I think there is a decent chance OC votes to keep Newsom. Looks like that is the sort of place that will save Newsom from an embarrassingly close call.

......? this isn't 4 weeks ago. the recall is looking to top 20% for no.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned: 7,916,876
Dems 4,143,960 (52.3%)
Reps 1,981,634 (25.0%)
Ind/Other 1,791,282 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (40%), Reps (37%), Ind/Other (27%)

----

Again, for comparison on election eve 2020, it was 12.1M ballots returned, with Dems 50.9%/Reps 24.4%/Ind-Other 24.6%.

Turnout was Dems (61%), Reps (55%), Ind/Other (46%)

Dems were +26.5 on Reps in 2020 on this day, today its +27.3.

[wbrocks67]

I'm interested to see how disproportionately Republican election day/in person voting is. I'd imagine the gap might be even more wide than the 2020 election, given the stop the steal/ VDM is illegitimate rhetoric obviously peaked after Trump's defeat. I'm thinking No +16 at this point, I think polls will again underestimate Republican performance as they become even more disconnected from traditional media sources.

Even though the recall is doomed to fail and evolved into a Larry Elder lead circus, at least it gave us election junkies something to focus on in 2021 lol.

CA polls actually nailed the margin in 2020. 538 average was Biden +29 which is exactly what it was

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/california/

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned: 7,916,876
Dems 4,143,960 (52.3%)
Reps 1,981,634 (25.0%)
Ind/Other 1,791,282 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (40%), Reps (37%), Ind/Other (27%)

Total ballots returned = 8,354,033
Dems 4,354,719 (52.1%)
Reps 2,108,229 (25.2%)
Ind/Other 1,891,085 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (42%), Reps (39%), Ind/Other (29%)

Dems are now +26.9 leading into Election Day. 2020 was +26.5.

[wbrocks67]

A better day for Reps - assuming that we probably got another dump of in-person votes, which seem to be 3/4 Republican, or close to it

[wbrocks67]

https://www.twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1437611826456383492

I don’t know what this means, if anything, but it’ll be rather interesting.

You didn't provide all the context.

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1437612272872943621

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 7,327,713
Dems 3,852,837 (52.6%)
Reps 1,819,002 (24.8%)
Ind/Other 1,655,874 (22.6%)

Turnout = Dems (37%) Reps (34%), Ind/Other (25%)

Total ballots returned = 7,757,346
Dems 4,070,655 (52.5%)
Reps 1,931,763 (24.9%)
Ind/Other 1,754,928 (22.6%)

Turnout = Dems (39%), Reps (36%), Ind/Other (27%)

Gonna steal wbrocks67's thunder for a sec.


Total ballots returned: 8,722,954
Dems 4,509,992 (51.7%)
Reps 2,233,539 (25.6%)
Ind/Other 1,979,423 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (43%), Reps (42%), Ind/Other (30%)

----

Again, for comparison on election eve 2020, it was 12.1M ballots returned, with Dems 50.9%/Reps 24.4%/Ind-Other 24.6%.

Turnout was Dems (61%), Reps (55%), Ind/Other (46%)

Dems were +26.5 on Reps in 2020 on this day, today its +26.1.

Total ballots returned = 9,120,304
Dems 4,690,627 (51.4%)
Reps 2,357,031 (25.8%)
Ind/Other 2,072,646 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (45%), Reps (44%), Ind/Other (32%)

[wbrocks67]

Yay! Exit poll!

https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/1437833387419516940

Also since its Edison, we can compare to the 2018 Edison exit poll for CA-GOV

https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/california

[wbrocks67]

Let’s not count our chickens before they hatch.
Even if we win the recall, it will likely be by an embarrassing margin. Let’s wait and see…

going to bookmark this b/c this take is looking really bad

[wbrocks67]

I'm going to assume Indies, however, are more likely to break 50/50 this time around, instead of Newsom's 53/46 in 2018 or Biden's +22 in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

Total ballots returned = 9,402,858
Dems 4,794,666 (51.0%)
Reps 2,467,742 (26.2%)
Indi/Other 2,140,450 (22.8%)

Turnout = Dems (46%), Reps (46%), Ind/Other (33%)

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I think these are very early, considering Elder has a 34/49 favorable, which I'd expect to be much worse...

https://twitter.com/CBSPolitics/status/1437931388561408004