PA, MI, WI (Hodas & Associates) - Biden +6, +12, +14

[wbrocks67]

Isn't this the same group who had that Trump +6 poll for PA or something a few months back

[wbrocks67]

Yet another poll that shows if anything WI is more safe than PA. Yet people still cling to this fantastical notion that WI is somehow significantly more likely to stay with Trump.

Post-2016 Stress Disorder.

It's true. I was convinced of that too until fairly recently. Pennsylvania meanwhile seems to remain as the truest battleground of the three Obama-Trump states that gave him the win, though Biden has had a pretty consistent lead there too.

Eh, there's been plenty of Pennsylvania 8-11 Biden polls.

[wbrocks67]

So it looks like 538 removed them (or didn't add them to begin with?) It feels like they're gonna pull an OANN here

[wbrocks67]

They've just released the 'real' numbers and... they're virtually the same!!

MICHIGAN
Trump: 40.3%
Biden: 51.3%
Change from June: Trump +6.5 percentage points

WISCONSIN
Trump: 37.9%
Biden: 50.3%
Change from June: Trump +4.2 percentage points

PENNSYLVANIA
Trump: 44.3%
Biden: 49.7%
Change from June: Trump +6.3 percentage points

Apparently its a massive swing to Trump since June. I don't even remember a poll from June.

Seems totally believable that we'd see 4-6 pt Trump swings since June

[wbrocks67]

Michigan:
W/ leaners: Biden 52.5 - Trump 40.5
Trump approval: 41/57 (-16)
Trump fav: 39/57 (-18)
Trump virus approval: 36/60 (-24)
GCB: D 48.7 - R 38.3
Senate: Peters 51.3 - James 39.5

Pennsylvania:
W/ leaners: Biden 50.8 - Trump 44.7
Trump approval: 46/52 (-6)
Trump fav: 41/55 (-14)
Trump virus approval: 41/55 (-14)
GCB: R 44.8 - D 43.8

Wisconsin:
W/ leaners: Biden 52.1 - Trump 37.9
Trump approval: 40/57 (-17)
Trump fav: 33/58 (-25)
Trump virus approval: 33/62 (-29)
GCB: D 49.3 - R 36.1

I really don't even know what to say about these #s. Michigan is the closest to possible, since it seems Trump is triaging, but Wisconsin being nearly Biden +15, with Trump approval levels in the -20's seems way too D, and Pennsylvania somehow has his approval at -6, but his unfav/virus approval near -15, but the GCB in *republican* hands. Makes no sense.

[wbrocks67]

Their WI and PA college numbers are even higher!

Their methodology is messed up then... there's no way that the PA poll has a higher college+ # and somehow has Dems *losing* the GCB.

The cross tabs are funky too though. One of them had Biden/Trump essentially tied among 18-34, so....yeah