I really can't stop wondering exactly how durable this lead is. What's going to happen in October when as usual, the race breaks towards one candidate? Is Trump going to consolidate a lot of his wavering supporters, or will Biden's lead solidify? I mean it could also break even further towards Biden, but I don't know. Everything about this political environment screams landslide, but years of hyper-polarized elections make it hard to believe things will actually be this good for the Democrats.
That being said, I think if the race were held today, it'd be devastating for Republicans, but it's not today.
I think things could definitely change a bit, bc there's still major polarization, but I've also come around to the thinking that Trump only got 46% of the vote in 2016. Republicans got 44% of the vote in 2018. Both times, the "not Trump or Republican" vote was about +8 (54-46 in 2016, 53-44 in 2018). So I think Biden leading by that much (or more) is realistic, and I think, despite the fact that Trump can do a LOT of things that won't affect his base of supporters - he's basically continued to alienate and push away pretty much everyone who isn't that 40% of support.
