2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2 (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 168436 times)
wbrocks67
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« Reply #175 on: October 01, 2020, 04:22:22 PM »
Max Rose raised $2M+
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #176 on: October 02, 2020, 10:00:44 AM »
Interesting. Mace's total is very impressive, but I'd be surprised if it was through a lot of grass roots
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #177 on: October 05, 2020, 08:50:21 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 05, 2020, 08:43:07 AM


Quote
Rep. Kendra Horn raised $1.4M

Embarrassing

How is $1.4M for Horn embarrassing? She literally broke OK records.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #178 on: October 05, 2020, 09:10:30 AM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 05, 2020, 08:52:41 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 05, 2020, 08:50:21 AM
Quote from: VARepublican on October 05, 2020, 08:43:07 AM

Quote
Rep. Kendra Horn raised $1.4M

Embarrassing

How is $1.4M for Horn embarrassing? She literally broke OK records.

I think Bice is the one who broke OK records

And it’s not great that she raised less than a no name challenger in TX-02

Pretty sure TX is a lot more expensive than OK.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #179 on: October 06, 2020, 06:53:09 AM »
Quote from: DaWN on October 06, 2020, 05:59:56 AM
I think the NRCC are pulling out of VA-05 for the opposite reason you all think they are

Polls have had the race at about a tossup, so I... I don't think so
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #180 on: October 06, 2020, 10:19:10 AM »
Quote from: TrendsareUsuallyReal on October 06, 2020, 09:07:04 AM
Finello is going to be dragged across the finish line by a double digit Biden win I think. She needs to prove herself with her fundraising this quarter though

Yeah I'm interested to see what she raised. I hope she's touting the Biden endorsement. She raised $300K in the last Q, which wasn't bad considering she only had a month in there after she won the primary.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #181 on: October 06, 2020, 12:59:02 PM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 06, 2020, 12:32:30 PM

Now this is embarrassing

Also, wow



That's not disappointing at all? If anything, I'm pleasantly surprised. I was thinking Finello would do like $600K or something. Fitzpatrick has no excuse not to raise more $$$ and he's being outraised by somebody that his own pollsters say like 70% of the district doesn't even know about. Considering Finello has had to really bring her awareness up, nearly $1M is actually pretty damn great for her. Confirms for me that those Fitzpatrick +15 polls are obvious outliers.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #182 on: October 06, 2020, 01:15:14 PM »
Quote from: VARepublican on October 06, 2020, 01:06:13 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 06, 2020, 12:59:02 PM
Quote from: VARepublican on October 06, 2020, 12:32:30 PM

Now this is embarrassing

Also, wow



That's not disappointing at all? If anything, I'm pleasantly surprised. I was thinking Finello would do like $600K or something. Fitzpatrick has no excuse not to raise more $$$ and he's being outraised by somebody that his own pollsters say like 70% of the district doesn't even know about. Considering Finello has had to really bring her awareness up, nearly $1M is actually pretty damn great for her. Confirms for me that those Fitzpatrick +15 polls are obvious outliers.

I also expected Stephanie Bice to raise more than $1.5M. Maybe my expectations are too high.

I'm actually shocked at Bice raising that much. I'm shocked that she outraised Horn.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #183 on: October 07, 2020, 09:52:06 AM »
Quote from: Young Conservative on October 07, 2020, 08:11:26 AM


Wow, that's big $$ for Small. Isn't that a pretty cheap district?

Also great Pasquale, I don't forsee Perry raising even over $1M tbh.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #184 on: October 08, 2020, 06:02:19 AM »
Quote from: ignore the polls, look at the ‘fundamentals’ on October 08, 2020, 05:49:31 AM


I really don't get why people thought Wild or Cartwright would be in danger in this environment
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #185 on: October 08, 2020, 04:20:23 PM »
I'm more wondering *who* is donating to candidacies of Crenshaw and Garcia. They certainly don't seem like "Grassroots" candidates, so are these like major donors going all in on them?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #186 on: October 12, 2020, 11:39:03 AM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on October 12, 2020, 11:23:50 AM
When was the last time we got a GCB number?

Really just the USC/Dornsife tracker which has been stagnant at +8 and Morning Consult has done a few at +6. YouGov had +12. That's about it. That's the problem this year - way less polling than in 2018, with most high quality pollsters not doing a GCB question
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #187 on: October 12, 2020, 02:38:28 PM »
There's no way. Even a top level grifter couldn't raise that much there.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #188 on: October 13, 2020, 06:26:15 AM »
Yeah, I can see Webb winning this. Good is an awful fundraiser too.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #189 on: October 14, 2020, 05:26:18 AM »
Quote from: new_patomic on October 13, 2020, 09:35:03 PM
I'm not really understanding the polling right now.

Besides the noticeable divergence between some state polls versus national polls, whatever district polls have been released (even if they're mostly partisan internals) look far more favorable than what the GCB would suggest. And both parties seem pretty sure that most of the front-line members are doing pretty well, or at worst are looking at 50/50 odds.

Because we're not really getting any high quality GCB polling. All we're getting is like Morning Consult and YouGov. MC has ranged from 5-7, YouGov anywhere from 7-12, while USC tracker has been steady at D+8
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #190 on: October 16, 2020, 05:14:47 AM »
Quote from: Splash on October 15, 2020, 11:09:47 PM


Do we have exact #s from Gideon and Collins? I assume Gideon probably got close to $40M if thats the case then
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #191 on: October 20, 2020, 05:24:18 AM »
Quote from: Xing on October 19, 2020, 11:55:35 PM
This seems a little premature, especially given IA polling (though the experts don’t ever seem to factor that in.) I’d understand making this move when he gets rid of the Toss-Up column altogether, but I definitely don’t buy IA-SEN flipping before NC-SEN, and polling doesn’t really back that up, either.

Eh, it does though. Greenfield's polling average is nearly +5 right now. I mean, it's quite possible that the usual IA polling error doesn't really materialize this year. I have no idea if it will or won't, but it's not assured.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #192 on: October 20, 2020, 05:25:15 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 17, 2020, 01:01:39 PM
It worked brilliantly for Claudia Tenney, so why not?



It's like Scott Perry is trying to lose. This district is a straight tossup and he's acting as if he's in a R+20 seat.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #193 on: October 20, 2020, 06:46:45 AM »
Civiqs GCB tracker steady at D+9, 52-43

https://civiqs.com/results/vote_house_generic_2020?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #194 on: October 20, 2020, 06:20:58 PM »
Quote from: Electoral Titan Kim Reynolds on October 20, 2020, 02:38:56 PM


Should be interesting - they were way off in 2018. Had Taylor +7 around this time.

https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/2018-10-15-taylor-luria-survey/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #195 on: October 21, 2020, 06:30:54 AM »
VA-02 should definitely be at least lean Lean D after that poll today.

Would love for PA-16 to move from Likely R to Lean R, but I know it's a stretch. Sad
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #196 on: October 21, 2020, 08:48:26 AM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on October 21, 2020, 07:59:46 AM
How long did they keep FL-26 a toss up? One month?

was thinking the same thing. seemed very overreactive
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #197 on: October 22, 2020, 10:32:09 AM »
This is more like it!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #198 on: October 23, 2020, 09:31:44 AM »
Finello outraised Fitzpatrick 2:1 in PA-01... could be an upset brewing here.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #199 on: October 26, 2020, 09:00:19 AM »
I'm kinda shocked NM-02 is so high up.
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