2020 Poll Hype Thread

[wbrocks67]

Trump won Alaska by 15% in 2016, so I'm thinking Trump up 1-5.

[wbrocks67]

Just a reminder that:

• AK has continuously swung D at the presidential level throughout most of the 21st century
• Trump got a smaller share of the PV in AK than OH

True, it should also be noted that Trump only got 51% in 2016 in AK in a GOOD year for him. So actually, a Biden lead would not at all be surprising.

[wbrocks67]

Trump won by 15 in 2016. He's lost 8% ground nationally, so not sure how anyone could really predict higher than about Trump +7.

[wbrocks67]

I wonder how much NYT/Siena paid for all the live house polls. I would definitely contribute to that. I would never contribute $2K for a Gravis poll. At that point, more worth it to just do another $5K PPP poll

[wbrocks67]

Excited for MT.

[wbrocks67]

ABC/Wapo are due for a new poll - they usually release Saturday nights at midnight, so here's to hoping

[wbrocks67]

Polling this cycle is very lackluster. CBS/YouGov haven't done a poll in months, or a Battleground tracker. And even monthly outlets like NBC/WSJ, ABC/Wapo feel like they're now going longer than a month in between polls.

I feel like in 2016, by this point we were waking up on Sundays to tons of new polls.

[wbrocks67]

Hopefully we get NBC/WSJ, CNN, Quinnipiac this week.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, given the environment, Biden+4 would be kind of disastrous

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/thejackvaughan/status/1283218788536717312?s=21

Wow, now that I know it's SUSA, I might donate again.

[wbrocks67]

NBC/WSJ poll coming today at 5pm EST

[wbrocks67]

Could be a new Fox News poll tonight if their usual timeline is intact

[wbrocks67]

Nothing from Fox tonight, so I expect either national or state polls from them next Wed/Thur

CNN may be waiting till early next week too; usually they like to drag theirs out for 1-3 days

ABC/Wapo is also due, could be this Saturday night

[wbrocks67]

Some people were saying on Twitter - and I think it's so accurate and true - if people involved with campaigns see these campaigns from Election Twitter, they might as well donate themsevles. Probably cheaper than campaign polling and they can use the results for fundraising. Plus, it's Go Fund Me, so anyone can donate whatever they want

[wbrocks67]

I would assume, based on timing, there should be a CNN poll coming out this week sometime

[wbrocks67]

I would assume, based on timing, there should be a CNN poll coming out this week sometime

Or maybe they are skipping this month,

IDK, it would make sense for them to do one now and then do another one a month from now when the conventions are done, you'd think?

[wbrocks67]

Did Optimus Prime stop polling?

[wbrocks67]

Texas Quinnipiac poll at 2pm est.

Exciting!

Their last poll (June 3):

Trump 44/ Biden 43
Biden fav: 38/45
Trump fav: 42/50
Abbott approval: 56/32 (56/36 on virus)
Trump approval: 45/50 (47/51 on virus)

[wbrocks67]

Has anybody noticed that Biden’s polls have been down lately? His polling average hasn’t been this low since early June. Yeah I know he’s still up but it has been dropping steadily since then.

RCP is steady at +8.7

538 has been screwed over by the Rasmussen poll and nothing but internet polls this week. Somehow, despite Q-pac (+15), NBC (+11), and Wapo (+15), they don't seem to have much weight, while the internet polls seem to be dragging it down.

[wbrocks67]

The highest margin we've seen from a public or internal poll recently is Perdue +3. NOt sure why people would think Monmouth would have Perdue higher than that.

[wbrocks67]

Emerson.... but:

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1290279943172001793

[wbrocks67]

I'd be surprised if it was that high.

[wbrocks67]

Hopefully monmouth's weighting is not as sh**y as it was in the GA poll

[wbrocks67]

Q-pac poll of ME/KY/SC coming today

[wbrocks67]

CBS battleground tracker

?