NJ-GOV 2021 megathread

[wbrocks67]

The biggest GOP counties are counting their votes faster while the big Democratic counties are not reporting as much. That tells you quite a lot about where this is headed.

Yep. Most of the red counties are nearly done counting, at least their E-day vote. Most blue counties still have huge % outstanding.

Have no idea what is in though, in terms of e-day, mail, and early.

[wbrocks67]

Some of the blue counties are reporting next to nothing.

Bergen, which had Murphy +15 in 2017 with 200K+ votes is reporting... 2,000 votes right now.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I'm not sure if any of these have VBM #s included.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, I'm not sure if any of these have VBM #s included.

Middlesex is certainly the early vote. No way is Murphy winning there by 26.

He's up 13 in Middlesex right now

[wbrocks67]

It doesn't appear we have any answers as to whether the VBM has been counted yet.

[wbrocks67]

Ciattarelli's margin up to 53,000 votes.

Yes, this is a bit of a red mirage. All of the election day votes are being added in right now.

It doesn't appear any of the VBM have been added in, those were like D+40 based on party.

[wbrocks67]

Ciattarelli's margin up to 53,000 votes.

Yes, this is a bit of a red mirage. All of the election day votes are being added in right now.

It doesn't appear any of the VBM have been added in, those were like D+40 based on party.

Not what Kornacki said. He said all in Essex County counted so far is mail, with lots of same day left. Meanwhile in the counties that are done counting or near it, Ciattarelli is hitting his targets.

Just b/c Essex counted their mail ins does not mean the rest of the counties have.

[wbrocks67]

How many votes are VBM and how much should Ciaterriali lead by with in-person voters in order to win even with mail votes?

Dems lead VBM by over 40% and even Early In Person by 13-14%, so that's what makes me wonder if many have been counted, unless there was a total Ciatarelli +50 election day vote.

[wbrocks67]

Murphy survives by a hair

Where are you getting this?

Like it seems it’s the general consensus he’ll survive by a hair. There just aren’t enough votes for Jack to comeback.

Looking at the WaPo website, it seems the votes still to come in are from largely Democratic areas. That right?

Yes, nearly all Republican areas are done. There's also still the question about VBMs in different areas.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/OneJerseySchorr/status/1455856169247989763

a mess

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1455858366371217411

[wbrocks67]

Both Sweeney and Murphy look like they'll survive unless I'm missing something

and the fact that both are likely to scrape by is just... something.

i mean Murphy will still be the first Dem re-elected in a long time, so there were headwinds that I think a lot of us didn't even realize, locally in NJ, even aside from the national stuff

NJ'ians have not liked re-electing incumbent Dems lol

[wbrocks67]

If I'm reading this correctly, neither those 23K that are "counted" or 5K that are "not counted" are included in the statewide total

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1455871859434602500

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1455936850540077057

Election Day votes be counted until *two* days after the election? This is insanity. Not to mention the fact there is apparently at *least* 70K VBMs still sitting out there

[wbrocks67]

Actually scratch that, likely ~100K VBMs still out.

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1455823547058855936

[wbrocks67]

The democrat party would lose so many more elections if it wasn’t so easy to mail in a ballot


I want 2014 midterm era excuse-only mail voting so bad

This makes me so angry

So you want to make it harder for people to vote? There is nothing wrong with mail-in voting - for anyone. It makes it easier for all registered voters to vote, full stop.

[wbrocks67]

Murphy should win but I don't know what to think at this point. He obviously won't win by the 9 point margin I predicted...at this point I'd consider myself close if he even won. Right now the race is lean Democratic, maybe likely.

Not sure why people keep on acting like this isn't a foregone conclusion... besides Essex there is no election day vote left from what I can tell, and it's all VBM, which Dems had a +40 lead in.

It's just frustrating that it's taking this long to count.

[wbrocks67]

And more votes just got dumped and now Murphy has a +15K lead

Murphy (D) 1,199,614 - 49.9%
Ciatarrelli (R) 1,184,723 - 49.3%

[wbrocks67]

His campaign was actually worse than McAuliffe's, if you ask me.

Probably something to this considering Murphy actually fell farther from Biden 2020 than McAuliffe. About a 16 point rightward shift in NJ vs. a 12 point rightward shift in VA. Obviously both are horrendous, but Murphy seems to have been (barely) saved solely by the fact that NJ is a bit more Democratic than VA still.

Tbh, it doesn't look like Murphy really campaigned? Like I think they kind of wrote it off as if it was a sure-fire win, which I guess I don't blame them.

However, yeah, the headwinds for this particular race were not great for Murphy - he won by 14 in 2017, but that was with Trump as president, Christie approvals in the dumps (Guadagno attached to it). Meanwhile, Biden approvals low right now, nothing getting done, no Dem GOV has been re-elected in 40 years, Ciattarrelli actually spent a lot of $$$ on this race (I think their spending was actually even), and not to mention - didn't Rs do really good in the 2019 local races too?

[wbrocks67]

With the VBM added in, Mercer suddenly looks pretty close to 2017.

Mercer 2017: Murphy +32
Mercer 2021: Murphy +28

The dip from 2017 here was way less severe, so still curious where VBM is out elsewhere in the state, and if some of these more precipitous drops right now are red herrings.

[wbrocks67]

NBC shows a lot of election day ballots still need to be counted in several counties, and that early/mail  ins were counted first.  While the remaining ballots are in heavily Dem areas, the margin is still super close and the election day ballots skew Republican.  That probably explains why this race still hasn't been called by any major networks..

The only counties that have any substantial election day voters are all blue areas. Early votes may have been counted first, but not all mail-ins were. We just got a bunch of Mercer's today, still waiting on Morris's. Plus, it looks like any VBMs that came in on Tuesday have not been counted yet (there was 45K of them)

Bergen, for example still has 4K VBMs to count

https://twitter.com/RebovichInst/status/1455986809050177537

[wbrocks67]

Sweeney losing *almost* makes up for Virginia

yeah considering he was a thorn in Murphy's side to get things done, I'm not even upset about this tbh

[wbrocks67]

At least 6K VBM left out from Middlesex now too. A mess

https://twitter.com/RebovichInst/status/1456004547839672332

[wbrocks67]

CBS projecting 300K still out. Doesn't seem like anyone really knows

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1456025857869365254

[wbrocks67]

Latest update, via CNN

Phil Murphy 1,236,066 (50.3%)
Jack Ciattarelli 1,200,682 (48.9%)
~88% in

Blue counties still appear to have stuff out

[wbrocks67]

CNN saying 88% is in, not sure if it's correct or not.

But this is how much is allegedly left. All counties with <90% reporting are all D counties.

Hudson (D+47) - 81% in
Essex (D+47) - 84% in
Camden (D+24) - 88% in
Passaic (D+2) - 88% in
Mercer (D+29) - 89% in
Middelsex (D+11) - 89% in
Salem (R+29) - 90% in
Cumberland (R+12) - 91% in
Hunterdon (R+20) - 91% in
Monmouth (R+20) - 91% in
Morris (R+14) - 91% in
Burlington (D+5) - 92% in
Atlantic (R+12) - 93% in
Cape May (R+27) - 93% in
Somerset (D+2) - 93% in
Gloucester (R+10) - 93% in
Bergen (D+5) - 94% in
Ocean (R+36) - 95% in