Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[wbrocks67]

I think Kelly narrowly wins.

I'll go with Janet +2 for my prediction, but I would not at all be surprised to see Kelly win. If he does, WI-SEN 2024 is a tossup, tilting R.

Make up your mind.

Kelly wins. The weather will hurt Janet.

And people won’t vote for someone like Protasiewicz who used the N word to refer to AAs (which will hurt Protasiewicz in places like Milwaukee) and who abused her first husband

https://www.wispolitics.com/2023/justice-kelly-campaign-comments-on-abuse-allegations-against-judge-protasiewicz

You are literally posting about stuff that was proven *Fake*. Are you serious right now?

[wbrocks67]

Will be very interesting if Prostaciewicz ends up winning decisively and you still have pundits who refuse to admit that abortion is a massive driving issue for voters. Would be ironic too given that Morning Consult just put out that poll about its power of "salience" dropping.

[wbrocks67]

Im doing a swing map and Milwaukee stands out...any idea why Janet didn't really overperform there even though she is doing so massively like everywhere else?

She did overperform... +46 is way higher than any recent liberal in a SC race, and even higher than Evers' +43.

[wbrocks67]

This is not a particularly impressive performance for Wisconsin Democrats. The WISC in 2020 was won by a similar margin by Wisconsin Democrats.

LMAO, the Liberal pulls an +11 win in Wisconsin during a Democratic president (and not on the same day as a presidential primary) and it's not "impressive"? Seriously go touch grass.

[wbrocks67]

It's odd to me that people see the Nov 22 results, the special election results, and then results like these (and all special elex this year basically) and still have the audacity to say it has no bearing on Trump/Biden in 2024.

[wbrocks67]

Also once again, abortion rights are an insanely huge motivating factor for voters. Pundits in shambles yet again.

[wbrocks67]

Oof, I didn't expect such a blowout. That said, I don't think this has any implications for the 2024 prez election. Starts out as pure tossup or Tilt Biden.

Partly disagree. Obviously Trump will do much better than Kelly in the rurals, but I think the WOW margins are indicative of what we’ll see next year in a rematch.

Biden might very well do better in WI than 2020, though a D-shift of more than 1-2 pts. would actually indicate Biden won by more than he did last time at the national level.

Well, yes, that’s exactly what I think will happen. That also more often than not happens in rematches. The original victor usually wins a rematch by a wider margin.

And Trump was essentially a proxy last year, especially, in the midterms, and all of the GOPs policies and his own grievances went down in flames, so I don't get why people think all of a sudden voters would suddenly be okay with those things again when Trump runs in a GE again.

[wbrocks67]

Disappointed to see Dems lose SD-09 despite winning by 11 statewide, but still a 3% overperformance vs. Trump 2020.

[wbrocks67]

While I certainly don't think we should read too much into this, especially if we're talking about 2024 in general, it does certainly seem as though Wisconsin's Republican trend was greatly overestimated. Johnson's narrow win in a Democratic midterm against a candidate who did make some mistakes and was not given the same attention as other successful Democratic candidates doesn't really suggest that Wisconsin is going the way of IA/MO/OH like many thought it might, particularly after 2016. It also doesn't seem like the WOW counties (particularly Waukesha and Ozaukee) are going to stop trending Democratic without Trump on the ballot.

And the key here too is that Barnes was outspent. Badly. This time, Dems put the work in and made sure it didn't happen. I think if Barnes had been given that level of attention, he could've pulled it off.

[wbrocks67]

ET was being real messy last night too. They kept saying the NYT was incorrectly reporting vote totals when instead they just had a more updated count than Milkwaukee's BOE.

[wbrocks67]

Given how the margin ended up it's clear the candidates were not the deciding factor here and it's painfully obvious abortion is still an important issue.

Democrats need to wake up and start making abortion a central issue like republicans did for evangelicals for decades. How many states will have either a critical judicial appointment or ballot measure related to abortion on the ballot next year? Even if not directly on the ballot democrats need to do some or all of the following:

-Make every republican answer for every extremist abortion proposal. Wishy washy half-assed answers need to be highlighted and called out immediately. It shouldn't be hard to shoot down insane proposals if you don't agree with them.
-Run ads on this early and often.
-Keep highlighting that this is also an economic and healthcare issue.
-Not not stopping about Gen Z having less reproductive rights than previous generations.

have you slept through every election since November?

[wbrocks67]

Wisconsin rejected a MAGA judge by a double digit margin? Based. It's too unfortunate ElectionsGuy has dropped out of the forum. Heck, this is his homestate.

His final post was that he was considering leaving the forum because we were all too stupid to see that Hassan was going to lose. I'd be shocked if he has the balls to show himself again after his behavior in the months leading up to the 2022 elections.

Him and Calthrina, both

[wbrocks67]

Milwaukee needs its own Ben Wikler, or he needs to travel there and try and duplicate what he's done in Dane.

[wbrocks67]

I'd caution everyone from assuming that this is somehow the new baseline for Wisconsin. Clearly if the past few years shows us anything, it's that Wisconsinites overwhelmingly want a progressive-leaning Supreme Court, but are a lot more evenly split in statewide or federal races. Heck, we've seen it even in the SD-8 election, where the Democratic candidate ran significantly behind Protasiewicz.

Was it really significantly? I thought people calculated that she likely only won it by a few %, if that.

[wbrocks67]

Wisconsin rejected a MAGA judge by a double digit margin? Based. It's too unfortunate ElectionsGuy has dropped out of the forum. Heck, this is his homestate.

His final post was that he was considering leaving the forum because we were all too stupid to see that Hassan was going to lose. I'd be shocked if he has the balls to show himself again after his behavior in the months leading up to the 2022 elections.

Good riddance.

Wait where is this post? I need to see it lol

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/Victorshi2020/status/1645121471277318144

Don't expect the youth to "save" America if Democrats turn on us. From trying to ban tiktok for literally no good reason to ignoring school shootings beyond empty platitudes and the Willow Project, be mindful. The youth will vote D, but only if Dems don't take the votes for granted.

I honestly don't even know where to start with this and I don't even know if I should bother with a response. This reads as an online leftist who doesn't actually pay attention to what is actually going on in politics.

[wbrocks67]

Does the WIGOP just want to keep losing? I can't imagine a scenario where they won't pay electorally for this if they go thru with it.

[wbrocks67]

So where do we stand? Has anyone filed a suit for the congressional maps yet?

[wbrocks67]

So dems are going to gain 2 seats?

Right now only the state legislative maps are being challenged.

Yeah, no idea why the congressional maps haven’t been challenged yet.

It's probably lower priority since a court map is likely to stay at 6-2, unless they fully embrace a proportionality idea (which they may want to avoid for the moment since it would require gerrymander-esque splitting of Milwaukee, putting the court out more on a limb politically.)

I highly doubt a court map/special master map would still produce a 6-2

[wbrocks67]

LOL

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1712491484409127188

[wbrocks67]

Is there still nothing submitted for the congressional maps? What's the hold up?

[wbrocks67]

At this rate, I assume no one is even going to bother to attempt to challenge the congressional maps - even if it's unlikely they'd be scrapped?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/lawrencegandrea/status/1747407426016465259?s=46

How likely is this to succeed? Is there any barriers before it would get to the WISC?