Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[wbrocks67]

Stupid question but did Barnes completely step down as Lt Gov or does he get a second term since Evers won?

[wbrocks67]

Judge Janet Protasiewicz has a ton of money to spend.

https://twitter.com/DanRShafer/status/1624873988169031683?s=20

Damn, wow. I'm feeling oddly very good about this race as of right now.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1625868245596008451

[wbrocks67]

DO we think Protacewicz will hit 50? It certainly feels like the other D is extremely inconsequential?

[wbrocks67]

Who would be the easier R to beat in the April GE?

[wbrocks67]

I would expect the liberal to still have a money edge in the GE. She raised way more than the rest all combined.

[wbrocks67]

Should note for folks planning on following results coming in tomorrow, they aren't overly predictive. In 2018 the two conservatives together drastically outperformed the liberal only in the primary only for the liberal to win by over 100,000 votes in the general.

Didn't the 2018 primary have two liberals (Dallet and Burns) facing off against one conservative (Screnock)? IIRC the fact that the libs combined for over 53% of the primary vote was a major sign that Dallet was favored in the general. It seems like 2020 is a better example of the primary not necessarily being predictive, since Kelly got a bare majority of the February vote but lost the general by double digits.

Whoops, could have swore Burns was a conservative. I was wrong.

Yeah. Predictiveness is not absolute, only relative so temper the expectations, this will probably be a situation where be able to read the tea leaves until everything is clear.

Things that will probably affect the forthcoming  result but won't translate to the runoff:

- The previously mentioned snowstorm
- Madison Mayoral election boosting turnout
- More competition on the conservative side over who is the candidate
- Significant spending advantage at the moment in favor of the leading liberal

Madison mayoral general election will take place on 4/4/2022.

The real contest, the 'primary,' is today.

Right, but it will help Ds on April 4th that there is additional elections like that that are going to be a boost to get Ds out to vote.

[wbrocks67]

Slight bump for Dems in the updated vote tally - went from 53.9-46.1 to 54.0-46.0 with a tiny update.

[wbrocks67]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Really frustrating too in the sense that if everyone knew the Barnes race would only be 1pt, I'm sure he would've been able to maximize resources and come up with some additional ideas to get that last 25-30k votes.

[wbrocks67]

I know these races are basically partisan at this point, but it does feel kind of weird for *judges* to debate? Like I know they have "positions" but it doesn't really seem like there's much of a point compared to regular federal/state races

[wbrocks67]

The official primary results were released today. Liberals ended up leading the Conservatives by 7.85%. Based on those results, here is what a tied map would look like.

Remaining mail in ballots went to the GOP? Wasn't the day after 8.0%?

[wbrocks67]

The importance of Supreme Court majorities in swing states can't be understated; glad that Janet seemingly is the favorite but we absolutely shouldn't rest on our laurels or take anything for granted.

[/b]

I never understand when people say this. Literally who is doing this?

[wbrocks67]

Kelly still has not spent a cent on his own.

Polling nugget: "Private polling conducted by officials on both sides of the race shows Judge Protasiewicz with a lead over Justice Kelly in the mid-to-high single digits."

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1635967098802384897

[wbrocks67]

They honestly think that is a reasonable compromise? Just confirms how out of touch they are.

[wbrocks67]

Internal Kelly poll has him down 4

https://twitter.com/wisconsin_now/status/1636009956381011970

[wbrocks67]

Kelly & Republicans getting extremely desperate at this point - cooking up literally fake stories (check the responses that out them in DMs)

https://twitter.com/wisconsin_now/status/1636390310422134787

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1638530970084323334

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mollybeck/status/1638879076898476032?s=46&t=cnaSCfvIMWiF...

It pains me to say this, but no persuadable voter cares about this. They're way more worried about CRT, an issue that doesn't exist.

Actually a lot do and the midterms proved it.

that comment is exactly why I have SL on ignore.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mollybeck/status/1638879076898476032?s=46&t=cnaSCfvIMWiF...

It pains me to say this, but no persuadable voter cares about this. They're way more worried about CRT, an issue that doesn't exist.

Actually a lot do and the midterms proved it.

that comment is exactly why I have SL on ignore.

Who is SL?

SnowLabrador

[wbrocks67]

$12M to $2M fundraising disparity is certainly something!

[wbrocks67]

I honestly don't think this is in the bag as many people think. I think it's a lean dem race but Kelly Can definitely win this.

I was driving through rural Wisconsin (Dodge, Green Lake, and Fond du Lac) and I was generally impressed with Kelly’s ground game. Huge amounts of signs. A couple people I graduated high school with are highly involved with Wisconsin Right to Life and they are putting in a lot of volunteer hours into this. We will see what happens. The model I built right now has a Janet +4 win, but a narrow Kelly win is a possibility of course.

Amount of Signs mean nothing.

Right to Life is out knocking on a lot of doors.

Just as I imagine Janet's side is.

[wbrocks67]

That candidate gap is insane

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1641073258916204544

[wbrocks67]

My final prediction here is that Democrats win, just because they were up in the first round and the usual pattern in Wisconsin is that the general is more, rather than less, favorable for the left-wing candidate. That said the early-vote turnout patterns look extremely favorable for conservatives and if they still lose it's going to be because they did horrifically poorly among persuadable swing voters; like much worse than in 2022.

They're a tiny bit better for conservatives than the primary, but I wouldn't say "extremely favorable."

[wbrocks67]

What do the polls and early votes say so far?

No polls, really. Two Kelly internals that had him down 4 and then 2. Early vote seems good for Janet.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like final total was Dem spending $2.5M over GOP. And that doesn't even take into account GRP.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1643258227096961025