Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[wbrocks67]

Kleefish looking more and more extreme by the day

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1544292049494605826

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/sbauerAP/status/1546830737298624516

[wbrocks67]

Who do you guys think it'll be? Kleefisch or Michels?

Kleefisch only needs to keep a large lead in the Southeastern part of the state, like Vukmir over Nicholson in 2018, but Michels will probably sweep the rural areas, and he will probably cut into the Kleefisch base in the Milwaukee metro better than Nicholson, so I think Michels is the favorite.

Good, hopefully it's Michels. The general election polls probably are significantly underestimating Republicans, but it does appear that Michels is a weaker GE candidate than Kleefisch.

Is he? Kleefisch seems more extreme than Michels, but I could be wrong.

[wbrocks67]

I had no idea Michels was actually endorsed by Trump here. Will be interesting to see if that gets him over the finish line.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting, though I think this is the one race where Kleefisch isn't *that* much more sane than Michels.

[wbrocks67]

Evers has more of a chance now to survive given Michels is more of a disaster than Kleefisch was.

[wbrocks67]

Isn't Michels not even from WI or doesn't live there? I thought I saw somewhere he lives(d) in CT.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1557388901068808195

[wbrocks67]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

Not true? Marquette has always had him above water IIRC, and Morning Consult had him down a few % I believe if that. That's not "unpopular"

[wbrocks67]

Micehls definitely makes this an easier haul for Evers to win re-election, but I am still not moving it out of the tossup category. Evers has been consistently unpopular and Wisconsin, for as much of a defining battleground state as it is, tends to have no qualms in electing people well to the right of where the state should be. It's the GOP's second easiest chance at a pickup, but they did still in some ways make that job harder on themselves.

And by the way, I just learned about why Trump didn't endorse Kleefisch, and I can't beleive that I am still being surprised at what a petty, narcisstic, sociopathic b**** he is! Really!? Because her daughter went to a dance with a non-election denying Justice's son? How far-removed and tenuous is he taking his grudges now?!

Not true? Marquette has always had him above water IIRC, and Morning Consult had him down a few % I believe if that. That's not "unpopular"

I haven't seen any recent polling, I suppose. But last I remember he was underwater and had a reputation as not accomplishing a lot (though that might more be the fault of the Wisconsin legislature).

Last Marquette in June had him +3. Previous one before that had him +5

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1539668170700894210

[wbrocks67]

How is Michels an especially bad candidate? He generally seems like Generic R in every way to me.

Yeah,  I don't get this.  If anything the outsider image should help. My understanding is that both candidates have randomly made a couple extremely socially conservative comments, but I think Michels comes off as more moderate overall? 

How is he an outsider? He ran for political races in WI as far back as 2004, so he's no stranger to politics.

Not sure how these comments are moderate:

-Claims 2020 election was rigged
-Said “everything was on the table”, including decertifying results
-Wants to dismantle the bipartisan commission that runs WI elections
-Favors 1849 abortion ban
-Calls for ‘public private partnership’ to counsel young woman with unexpected pregnancies
-Him and his wife are ‘pro life Christians’ who will ‘protect the unborn’

Just because an R candidate isnt a MTG or Lauren Boebert doesn't mean they are 'moderate', especially in a swing state like WI.

Election denying and abortion bans alone are extraordinarily extreme for a swing state.

[wbrocks67]

WI GOP constantly giving things for Evers to run on

https://twitter.com/greenhousenyt/status/1558541651592859649

[wbrocks67]

How is Michels an especially bad candidate? He generally seems like Generic R in every way to me.

Yeah,  I don't get this.  If anything the outsider image should help. My understanding is that both candidates have randomly made a couple extremely socially conservative comments, but I think Michels comes off as more moderate overall? 

You don’t understand—he was nominated by the Republican Party in 2022 and is therefore a horrible candidate. QED.

We've already litigated this, especially the ridiculous talking point that Michels is an "outsider"

[wbrocks67]

First Dixon, then Michels - candidates are just MIA

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1559287112008089600

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DanRShafer/status/1560677663202652162?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7C...

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1572956488477605889

[wbrocks67]

This doesn't sound like a campaign that is winning right now

https://twitter.com/js_politics/status/1573393273506463751

[wbrocks67]

Wisconsin governor’s race the most expensive in the country

The two sides have spent $55 million since the August primary. Incumbent Gov. Tony Evers and his Democratic allies have spent $38 million while Republican construction magnate Tim Michels and Republicans have spent $17 million on the race, according to AdImpact, which tracks TV ad spending in elections.

Given this disparity, Evers and Michels really shouldn't be tied right now.

[wbrocks67]

This race really hasn’t gotten enough talk lately, especially compared to the senate race even though I’d argue the Gov race here is far more competitive

Yeah, in theory you'd expect Evers to still have a slight edge here - he has incumbency, he's not really disliked (if anything, he seems at parity most of the time) and has more $$$ than Michels does.

Combine that with Michels being anti-abortion rights and Wisconsin's draconian abortion law, I would think Evers would still be doing relatively well here.

Siena showed Evers +5 which was a high water mark, but then a few found the race tied or Michels +1.

Marquette is coming next week again so hopefully we'll get a better view of it then.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/tony4wi/status/1580616619474227201?s=46&t=eUfQHwaY22Auaf...

wow. Evers should just promote this for the next 25 days.

Are these two debating?

[wbrocks67]

My prediction:
Evers 49.6
Michels 49.2

Johnson 51.9
Barnes 48.1

Van Orden +6 over Pfaff

Yeah, I feel like it may be 2018 all over again with Evers pulling out a win. Michels just seems like a really bland candidate, who has said some really dumb stuff.

[wbrocks67]

Quite something that Evers pulled this off, given how few here thought that he would, and that it wasn't even that close, no less!

Me too. I expected Evers to pull it out by 2018 margins if he did indeed won. +4 in Wisconsin in a Biden midterm is an incredible result for him. And thank god, b/c Michels is a ghoul.

[wbrocks67]

Steil seemed to underperform a bit this year too. I wonder if WI-01 isn't completely lost for Dems in the future.

[wbrocks67]

Steil seemed to underperform a bit this year too. I wonder if WI-01 isn't completely lost for Dems in the future.

The redrawn version is one of those seats that Dems decided to ignore.this cycle cause of the predicted environment, like PA10 and CA03, but almost certainly is a future target when offense rather than defense is the larger goal.

Yep, all 3 of these should be contenders in the future. PA-10, especially. Daniels lost by only 8 with zero help from the national party. She only did 5% worse than Shapiro in the seat (he lost by ~3), which is extremely impressive.

[wbrocks67]

Steil seemed to underperform a bit this year too. I wonder if WI-01 isn't completely lost for Dems in the future.

The redrawn version is one of those seats that Dems decided to ignore.this cycle cause of the predicted environment, like PA10 and CA03, but almost certainly is a future target when offense rather than defense is the larger goal.

Yep, all 3 of these should be contenders in the future. PA-10, especially. Daniels lost by only 8 with zero help from the national party. She only did 5% worse than Shapiro in the seat (he lost by ~3), which is extremely impressive.

Theres no way Shapiro lost this seat.  He probably won it by close to double digits atleast. Are you talking about Fetterman?

Actually you're right, I believe I was thinking of PA-16. My Bad!