State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[wbrocks67]

Interested to see the margin in the Delco state house special election tomorrow. It was Biden 62-37 and Fetterman 64% I think but Dems have not taken it lightly - Shapiro cut a video, Biden released an endorsement, and Dems have spent $1M+ on their candidate (Rs have not spent anywhere close to that). The last two Dems in this seat were mired by scandal so I would assume it's more of a better be safe than sorry situation. But at the same time, PA Dems have also just been on their game - they put lots of money and resources into the Allegheny specials in February when they were all safe D seats too

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this shouldn't even be close

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1658533322405076992

[wbrocks67]

Lost in some of the kerfuffle was that Dems really did well in PA's HD108 on Tuesday

HD108: R+20 (Trump +32)
HD163: D+21 (Biden +26)

A 12% overperformance from Trumps margin in a red district. Ds did 5% worse than Biden in 163, but that's not too surprising.

[wbrocks67]

Another Dem overperformance in a special election... where have I seen this before

[wbrocks67]

Another special election coming to PA! Safe D seat though.

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1681665064271486976

[wbrocks67]

Double digit overperformances from Biden in 2020: +13 and +14.

[wbrocks67]

Also seems likely that if Virginia dems wouldve actually fielded a candidate in their special last night, it would've been a pretty big overperformance too.

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1696687817613529164

[wbrocks67]

Seems like Berger will basically match Biden with final mail-ins, so I'd call this a win. Incredibly low turnout, but Dems will obviously like to see that this was nowhere near Hochul or even Schumer levels.

[wbrocks67]

PA special election coming this Tuesday.

From 2022:
Requests were DEM 78.1 / REP 12.6 / IND 8.8
Returns were DEM 78.1 / REP 12.3 / IND 9.3

Final result in 2022 was D 63.6% - R 36.4%

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1702115780706422888

[wbrocks67]

Interesting how most of the press continues to be silent or completely not acknowledge these continued special election results that show Dems overperforming. Something is not clicking here with actual results and polling.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/chwolfson/status/1703800672968224987

[wbrocks67]

Reminder that tonights PA district was Biden +23 in 2020 and D+27 in 2022.

NH was Trump+0.4 (49.1-48.7) and Hassan+8 (52.5-44.5)

[wbrocks67]

This was the Trump +6 town

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1704283680556941538

[wbrocks67]

All VBM are in for PA HD-21 and Dem is up 82-17.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1704288991883714646

[wbrocks67]

NH turnout was also no slouch - 60% of 2022!

https://twitter.com/imbecilesrus/status/1704293075747475649

[wbrocks67]

This is why I’m not stressing about Biden’s poll numbers yet. There’s time for that next year.

Single issue Trump people don't vote in special elections.  Like the difference between presidential and non-presidential turnout during Obama's presidency, but with the parties reversed.

Not exactly true - much like last years specials, GOP turnout is not bad at all.

[wbrocks67]

At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

Maybe, but Dems are also trying their best in Virginia to lose in November.

lol what

[wbrocks67]

Final votes bump margin up to D+31.0 in PA HD-21, so officially an 8.1% swing from Bidens result (was 7.5% on election night)

[wbrocks67]

But but but.. I was told by Riverwalk NH was winnable for Trump

The special elections mean nothing, as Democrats have outperformed in almost every single one. This is especially in places where Democrats rely on college educated whites, who turn out in low turnout elections (as opposed to where the Democratic coalition is more minority reliant, in which they tend to underperform in special elections as minorities are less likely to turn out in low turnout elections).

The last poll done here was pretty bad for Trump, and moves my priors a bit. Still, NH is a state where there is often a huge polling shift in the last minute, and could easily be the first state (past the big 7) to flip in a good night for Trump. Also the same poll had Clinton up by 11 in NH in their final poll.

Like I said in the other thread, UNH has had some whacky results, but you can't only include 2016. They accurately hit 2020 on the margin, and also severely underrated *Democrats* in 2022.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting that the Dem outperformed the most in the urban areas, something we don't normally see in these specials.

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1734759316253524447

[wbrocks67]

Interesting that Dems continue to do well in these majority black specials. But I was told Dems would continue to implode with black voters...

[wbrocks67]

Democrats overperform in deep blue districts, Republicans overperform in deep red ones.

Not exactly true, Dems overperformed in the Alabama special last night. I believe it was R+66 in a Trump +73 district

[wbrocks67]

Where is Wbrocks67 to tell us how this means Dems will win in 2024 by a landslide?

Sis you are one of the last people to mock anyone about election predictions after 2022...

[wbrocks67]

Literally the first remotely positive sign for Dems in FL in forever, though it's still an underperformance of Biden 2020. In general, though, greater Orlando is one of the few places in FL where Dems have made decently consistent gains over the past 2 decades. One thing that is impressive though is this is a seat where Dems rely in large part on non-white voters, non-white voters that don't always show up.

It's not though? They had the Jacksonville Mayoral race and another special in December that were both really great for them in the last few months.

This is a Biden +5/DeSantis +12 district. To act as if a D winning by 3% here, when they were also outspent 5:1 is anything but a great performance would be completely wrong.

Most stunning thing here is how they likely won Indies by huge margins. Once again hard to matchup with polls that show Indies going for double digits nationally to Trump.

Oh and last thing, basically ignore everyone who tries to forecast FL races on Twitter during the day. Nearly everyone got it wrong.