Election 2018 Open Thread v2 - Mia, Mimi, Gil, and T.J.

[wbrocks67]

If Cox wins CA-21, that'd just be the icing on the cake

[wbrocks67]

Is NY-22 gonna be called in this century or...

[wbrocks67]

Both Kims failed. Pearl Kim and Young Kim.

[wbrocks67]

It is so damn true though that we will not get basically any NYT articles about how the GOP mucked this up in the suburbs and how that came to be how they lost. Yet in 2016 we got 104824292 articles about the rural diners.

[wbrocks67]

No love for Mia Love in UT-04. Nate Silver said that the new ballots were only 66% Love instead of ~74%. These late ballots are more Dem-skewing, so it's possible McAdams could pull it out with Salt Lake County's last batch.

[wbrocks67]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Yeah, I really got annoyed when they triaged Eastman to give money to Axne in Iowa. Turns out Axne needed it (only won by like, what, 2?) but the fact that Eastman also lost by only 2 with way less help is incredibly frustrating. That was a winnable race.

[wbrocks67]

Is there a reason NYT just gives up on their election map (overall) after election day? They are still updating house races for win/lose, but a ton of statewide and house races are completely out of date with the specific vote totals. It's like they gave up on updating most races after election night.

[wbrocks67]

CA totals, as up to date as I can tell:

CD10: Harder (D) 51.6% - Denham (R) 48.4%
CD21: Valadao (R) 50.5% - Cox (D) 49.5%
CD22: Hill (D) 53.2% - Knight (R) 46.8%
CD39: Cisneros (D) 51.0% - Kim (R) 49.0%
CD45: Porter (D) 51.7% - Walters (R) 48.3%
CD48: Rouda (D) 53.3% - Rohrabacher (R) 46.7%
CD49: Levin (D) 56.0% - Harkey (R) 44.0%
CD50: Hunter (R) 52.2% - Campa-Najjar (D) 47.8%

Now I'm just getting greedy because given a couple more $$$, CA50 probably could've swung too. It looks like by the end of counting, Hunter will only be up about 3%

[wbrocks67]

NE-02 is now down to a 51.0-49.0 Bacon win. Along with TX-23 (and maybe CA-21) another black eye for the moronic Dems that triaged this race because MUH weak candidate Kara Eastman and MUH unbeatable titan Don Bacon.

Speaking of moronic DCCC decisions, IL-13. Why exactly did we NOT target Davis? That race just sat at Lean R the entire cycle despite it being a Trump +5 or so district with a completely unremarkable incumbent. Unsurprisingly, Londrigan lost by around a point with minimal support.

They were too busy making sure Wexton won by 12 rather than 10 to target these seats.

I think ca 21 was a fair race to triage accounting for previous fundamentals such as 2016 victory margin showing he has legit cross over appeal + the top 2 primary. but yeah #bothsides did the most stupid moves in VA 10th. The GOP should have known the district was lost. The dems should have known that if they lost Va 10th they were picking up like 5 seats unless there was some WWC #populist revival.

I think someone else said this above, but I think going forward, DCCC needs to go into these races despite their polling. So even if it looks like a hard-sell with an incumbent, but Hillary/the D won it in a presidential year, they should just content it anyway. Because then they end up with egg on their faces in races that they could've won, like NE-02 and CA21.

[wbrocks67]

In KS-02, with some new votes, Watkins (R) lead is down to only 0.7%. It's a shame we couldn't of pulled that race out too. Kansas would've been even more blue.

[wbrocks67]

Devin Nunes lead is also down to 7.0% in CA-22. The fact that he may only win by like 6% in the end is pretty crazy. Dems should definitely plan to target this seat in 2020.

[wbrocks67]

Should we expect a call for UT-04 today?

Also what's going on with GA-07? Does Bourdeaux have a chance still? Recount? Isn't it like at 400 votes or something

[wbrocks67]

Mia Love gave no love. And that's why she lost. Sorry, Mia.

I'm sorry, I abhor everything about that man but that line was too damn funny. And only funny because Mia Love DID vote with him 99% of the time, so I don't feel bad for her whatsoever. And the fact that she was about to sue to get counties to stop counting bc she knew she was gonna lose. Bye girl.

Is there any more in depth exit polls out there yet, breaking down overall House vote by Gender AND age? (ex: White Males 18-29, White Women 18-29, etc.)

[wbrocks67]

Is there a reason NY22 still hasn't been called? Brindisi is winning by more ballots than there is out, now

[wbrocks67]

CA-21 Update

David Valadao (R) 54,713 votes - 50.21%
TJ Cox (D) 54,266 votes - 49.79%

And that's still with another Kern update coming on Monday.

[wbrocks67]

what a nice clean # at 40.

[wbrocks67]

It's too bad about CA-50. Wish the DCCC put a little more $$$ there.

[wbrocks67]

Is NY-22 going to be called this century or....

[wbrocks67]

Is there a chance at a new election in that NC district?

[wbrocks67]

Anyone who's saying that this still isn't a blue wave (as we are approaching possibly *41* seats in the end with a +8.3 GCB) is kidding themselves. Losing a few seats in the senate doesn't nullify everything else. And considering there were *10* states that Trump won that Dems could've lost (and that they overperformed in many of them, like PA, WI, MI, etc.) shows that it *was* a wave.

These days, with things so polarized, even a massive wave can't topple some predetermined destinies.

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, it is kinda ridiculous that we’re over 3 weeks from Election Day and votes are still being counted.

I really don't see what the big deal is. Making voting as easy as possible is more important than counting quick.

This. It's sad that so many people in so many different areas want to make voting *HARDER* for people.

[wbrocks67]

A couple updates.

CA-21
TJ Cox (D) 50.3%%
David Valadao (R) 49.7%

CA-39
Gil Cisneros (D) 51.5%
Young Kim (R) 48.5%

CD-45
Katie Porter (D) 52.0%
Mimi Walters (R) 48.0%

CA-48
Harley Rouda (D) 53.5%
Dana Rohrabacher (R) 46.5%

CA-49
Mike Levin (D) 56.1%
Diane Harkey (R) 43.9%

[wbrocks67]

The NYT polls were pretty spot on on a lot of races but they bungled most of the CA races, most of all Katie Hill's district. They had Steve Knight up by 4, and the final margin there is likely to be like Katie Hill +9.

[wbrocks67]

Has anyone seen any data or exit polls yet that break down specifically how certain gender/age demos voted? Like White Women 18-29, White Males 18-29, etc?

[wbrocks67]

The NYT polls were pretty spot on on a lot of races but they bungled most of the CA races, most of all Katie Hill's district. They had Steve Knight up by 4, and the final margin there is likely to be like Katie Hill +9.

CA-25's dem base has a large chunk of Hispanic voters. I would not be surprised if the same phenomenon that produced relatively-larger GOP leads in places like TX-21, CA-21, NV-Sen, and to a lesser extent AZ-Sen was at play here as well.

Huh? Relatively larger leads in... NV-Sen and AZ-Sen where both Dems overperformed?