Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[wbrocks67]

And in addition to the favorable party registration of early voters in NV, Rs are cannibalizing more to get their increased early vote, whereas Dems are bringing out more new/unlikely voters. It doesn't take a genius to see who is going to win this one.

Wonder if this will hold for other states. AKA Republicans cannibalizing their vote and just turning out their regular Rs, while Dems bringing out their regular Ds AND new/unlikely voters

[wbrocks67]

Iowa
Dems +33.7k statewide

D+14.7k in CD-01
D+16.8k in CD-02
D+11.9k in CD-03
R+9.7k in CD-04 (RIP Scholten)

The respective party leads in each district have grown considerably since last week.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

Compared to 2016 this represents slightly improved numbers for Dems in the 3rd and 4th districts, slightly worse in the 2nd, and almost exactly equivalent by % in the 1st.

Considering 2016 was awful for Ds, doesn't that bode... not well?

[wbrocks67]

Iowa
Dems +33.7k statewide

D+14.7k in CD-01
D+16.8k in CD-02
D+11.9k in CD-03
R+9.7k in CD-04 (RIP Scholten)

The respective party leads in each district have grown considerably since last week.

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2018/general/AbsenteeCongressional2018.pdf

Compared to 2016 this represents slightly improved numbers for Dems in the 3rd and 4th districts, slightly worse in the 2nd, and almost exactly equivalent by % in the 1st.

Considering 2016 was awful for Ds, doesn't that bode... not well?

Presidential turnout ≠ midterm turnout

Then why are we even comparing to 2016

[wbrocks67]

how do you think the ev is going for dems in az and fl?

Republicans are turning out in Florida. Some people are comparing this to 2014 and Democrats are doing much better than 2014. But the election is energized and somewhere between a midterm and presidential.

Based on party registration alone I haven't been impressed at all with what Democrats have already turned out in the EV.

Republicans edge has been going down day by day, and NPAs are assumed to go for Dems, so...

[wbrocks67]

Still nothing from Clark. I'm beginning to wonder if they just didn't bother and will drop it in the morning.

There's people on Twitter claiming it's at 48.8k but that doesn't make much sense since Ralston posted it was at 48k while tons of people were still in line.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats in Shelby County have +30k lead in TN:
https://www.facebook.com/1120290057/posts/10216820073230388/

First time voters are up nearly 1,000% in TN from 2014:
https://twitter.com/politicsreid/status/1058705806676385792?s=21

[wbrocks67]

So the Clark freiwal is over 47K, and 40K was supposed to be enough to make Republicans sweat. The statewide lead is currently over 23K (will probably drop just under once all the rurals are in), and 15K was the goal for Democrats... While that's technically not insurtmountable for Republicans, they would need the same kind of margin in raw numbers (not %) that they got on ED, as well as a hefty lead among Independents to just barely scrape by.

I'd say it's more likely that, once again, the polls were off in Nevada, and we get Senator Rosen and Governor Sisolak, and their races won't be nail-biters either...

Uh that’s not quite accurate. 22k statewide is a strong lead, but in 2016 the EV lead was 47k. Obviously Dems won by about 25k in the senate race in the end, meaning that between winning Indy’s and ED Rs gained 22k. If you assume 80% turnout then that’s a 18k gain, which would indicate Dems winning by 4K statewide if 2018 follows 2016 patterns exactly.

So in other words, a 2016 performance would yield toss-up / tilt D races. Of course, 2018 is not 2016 and Ds seem primed to do better on ED than they have in the past, perhaps battling it to a near draw. Additionally, Ds should do better with Indys than they did two years ago.

In other words, it’s a Lean D race in both the senate and governors races, but it’s not likely or safe based on these numbers. It is in fact a worse showing than Ds had in 2016 early voting, though only by a bit. Dems definitely turned up the heat a lot yesterday though - without that Clark performance things were going to look more like a pure tossup.

You shouldn't compare raw vote totals, considering turnout is not the same.

[wbrocks67]

Currently, 4.5 million votes have been cast so far (since last update at 4 pm) here in Florida, the GOP has ~58K vote lead so far.

good or bad for dems?

2016 had 6.4 million votes cast early and Democrats had a lead of ~80k, in the end it all depends on how NPA's break.

I take that means Florida is likely lost, then?

no... its just what they said... it depends on how NPAs break

[wbrocks67]

It's really odd to me why people continue to act like Beto can't win. Sure, is it likely? Probably not. But it's not impossible. I don't get why people here are instantly writing it off. Bad analyzation.

[wbrocks67]

Cruz, you missed out one very important Race off the TargetSmart Early Vote Data and that's Indiana.

It's 56-35 GOP in the Early Vote. Republicans should feel very confident about that one. Actually HoweyPolitics which is well regarded in the Hoosier State where former Rep. Mark Souder is one of the Analysts predicting a narrow Victory for Braun AND if that happens it will effectivly end the Democrats Chances of retaking the Senate. Souder predicted that Donnelly will get Crossover & Indie Support but it won't be enough to topple Braun.

In a state like Indiana, Donnelly is going to get crossover support. So going by partisan EV is not most accurate. Also, there's only 9% indies in the EV? That seems low.