Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[KaiserDave]

Kyiv stands!!
https://mobile.twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1497434355244978177

Incredible

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/RussiaUkraineNs/status/1497437883019366402

Slava Ukraina!

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497435912740880385

[KaiserDave]

While people here are posting memes and Twitter posts about how the glorious Ukrainian army is winning everything and the Russians are burning in their tanks, here's a notice from the Ukrainian Interior Ministry relayed by CNN:

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry has warned civilians in the capital Kyiv that fighting is taking place on the streets.

In a Facebook post Saturday, the ministry said:

    "Active fighting is taking place on the streets of our city. Please stay calm and be as careful as possible!
    If you're in the shelter, don't leave it now.
    If you are at home -- do not go close to the windows, do not go to the balconies. Hide indoors, for example in the bathroom, and cover yourself with something that will prevent injury from bullet fragments.
    If you hear sirens ("Air Alarm" signal) -- go immediately to the nearest shelter!"

So there is street fighting in the capital on the third day of the war. This is what Ukraine winning looks like? Someone compared this to the Winter War earlier, this is not even close to the Winter War.

Cope idiot
Kyiv is not yet lost

Why do you always take the most revolting view on everything?

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497461221527891969

https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1497470131135516673

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/Karmabash/status/1497572272298680327

Note the hair style

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/fatimatlis/status/1497797874771451905

Hopefully true

[KaiserDave]

So Germany just radically changed almost a century of state policy on defense and Scholz is the one who did it?

[KaiserDave]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

By a lot. A 800000 votes win becomes a 3 million votes loss. Crimea was 78-17, Donetsk was 90-6 and Luhansk was 89-8.

So this makes no sense at all. If Russia wanted to keep influence in Ukraine why are they trying to remove the most Russian parts of Ukraine?

I imagine that if the vote was today, those margins would be significantly closer. Ukraine, even eastern Ukraine has become significantly less pro Russia.

[KaiserDave]

Glad that now there will be talks.  Most things Putin has been demanding are reasonable in my view and Ukraine should try to meet him halfway on that.  

What is not reasonable and I hope Putin drops are

a) Ukraine demilitarization (not even clear what that means, does it mean no Ukraine army or a Ukraine army with no weapons) - this is not a reasonable demand on a sovereign nation  
b)  Zelensky has to go - this does not benefit Russia anyway.  Unless Putin wants to annex Ukraine whole (then why have talks at all) Putin will need someone on the Ukraine side to make the deal (which most in West Ukraine will be negative on) to make it stick.  Zelensky sounds like the man for the job.  For sure a Russian puppet cannot make the deal stick in Western Ukraine

I mean I don't get the purpose of wanting a closer Ukraine to Russia but annexing the most Russian parts of Ukraine. With Crimea and Donbass out Yanukych loses in 2010 right ?

By a lot. A 800000 votes win becomes a 3 million votes loss. Crimea was 78-17, Donetsk was 90-6 and Luhansk was 89-8.

So this makes no sense at all. If Russia wanted to keep influence in Ukraine why are they trying to remove the most Russian parts of Ukraine?

I imagine that if the vote was today, those margins would be significantly closer. Ukraine, even eastern Ukraine has become significantly less pro Russia.

Of course, but a divide would still exist. The Overton window between Russia/EU has literally shifted left but it doesn't mean the East isn't more Russia friendly. Zelensky afterall won basically everywhere but the far west.

Of course of course, but I imagine a hypothetical Tymoshenko 2022 would get possibly triple or more her numbers in those oblasts. It’s indicative of a massive shift.

[KaiserDave]

Is Kyiv encircled or not?

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498029060085075969
Russian state media accidentally pre-published Putin’s planned victory speech.

The upshot, Ukraine is rightfully Russian and denazification means annexation into the Russian federation

Can we finally put to bed the notion that the Minsk agreement Russia ignored anyway or any other unspecified compromise would have prevented the invasion?

He clearly rules out annexation, but everything else you say is correct

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498029060085075969
Russian state media accidentally pre-published Putin’s planned victory speech.

The upshot, Ukraine is rightfully Russian and denazification means annexation into the Russian federation

Can we finally put to bed the notion that the Minsk agreement Russia ignored anyway or any other unspecified compromise would have prevented the invasion?

He clearly rules out annexation, but everything else you say is correct

He doesn’t, ‘statehood won’t be liquidated’ means Ukraine as a constituent republic of the Russian Federation. TBF, it could also mean a Belarusian ‘union state’ agreement.

I think it is the latter.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1498029060085075969
Russian state media accidentally pre-published Putin’s planned victory speech.

The upshot, Ukraine is rightfully Russian and denazification means annexation into the Russian federation

Can we finally put to bed the notion that the Minsk agreement Russia ignored anyway or any other unspecified compromise would have prevented the invasion?

He clearly rules out annexation, but everything else you say is correct

He doesn’t, ‘statehood won’t be liquidated’ means Ukraine as a constituent republic of the Russian Federation. TBF, it could also mean a Belarusian ‘union state’ agreement.

I think it is the latter.

Possible, but there is little practice difference. This is a strait up war of conquest and no concessions short of total pre-emptive capitulation was going to stop it.

I completely agree

[KaiserDave]

This is going to be a disaster for Lukashenko

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1498155991661228037

[KaiserDave]

Russophobia is bad, whoever vandalized the establishment should be prosecuted.

Keep your focus on the actual enemy people, the evil madman in Moscow.

[KaiserDave]

-snip-

Heartbreaking
Putin's war is evil, and irredeemable.

[KaiserDave]

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1498437405610852353?cxt=HHwWgoC--b...

[KaiserDave]

What word from Kherson?

[KaiserDave]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

You are a pathetic excuse of a human who is desirous of oppression, we know this.

[KaiserDave]

I am curious with all this business with the Muslim Chechen soldiers

Asking AverageFoodEnthusiast, what do you believe is the Islamic theological perspective on this war and Muslims who fight for Putin?

[KaiserDave]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

You are a pathetic excuse of a human who is desirous of oppression, we know this.

Preferring authoritarianism to libertarianism is a valid position to take.

I don't care

[KaiserDave]

Putin is not looking for “neutrality guarantees” he’s looking for control and subjugation.

[KaiserDave]

Ukrainians despise the Russian government, they will never accept a Russian imposed regime. There is nobody who will support it. Former Yanukovych voters are now diehard anti Russia hardliners. They will fight a guerrilla war forever if that is what it takes.