Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[KaiserDave]

Well, of course that Russian language is gonna be in demise given what is happening from 2014 including war + propaganda, various laws and Ukrainians trying artificially to change their own language more and more so it wouldn't sound like Russian. But I was talking about people's sentiment in those areas. If you take language as a divider you'll get some division across Dnepr river prior to 2014. But if you include other factors, after Crimea, it's sure that Donbas was closer to Russia than to Ukrainian post Maidan government.

Taking language as a divider will not get a division across the Dnipro, I would check out the map I just sent you. Ukrainian has been dominant east of the Dnipro for decades. Although I'll clarify that this is "native language." An overwhelming majority of Ukrainians east of Galicia and Volhynia spoke Russian daily in early 21st century Ukraine, regardless of their own preference.

"It's sure that Donbas was closer to Russia than to Ukrainian post Maidan government." No, this isn't true. There is no evidence that this is true. Maybe you've made this sentence intentionally confusing, but I'm going to read it as saying separatism was the dominant tendency, that's not true. Even eastern ex-Party of Regions politicians like Hennadiy Kernes and Mykhailo Dobkin rejected separatism, and the February 2014 Conference of the South-East Regions in Kharkiv (which Yanukovych stopped by on his way out of the country) rejected separatism as a strategy. Separatism was only the dominant tendency in Crimea.

The Antimaidan movement was characterized by widespread dissatisfaction with the material status quo, corruption, oligarchism, and opposition to Maidan, but demonstrators by and large considered Ukraine their motherland. We know this because outright separatist parties were on the absolute fringe of Ukrainian electoral politics both before, and after Maidan. Regionalism and federalist parties were far more relevant. Russian nationalism has never been an electoral winner in Ukraine outside of Crimea.

[KaiserDave]

I wasn't talking about separatism. Separatism came as a direct consequence of Maidan.  And yes, it has to do with Russian influence (btw any world power would not let it slide in their own backyard) but to ignore all other stuff that was going on is disingenuous

What other stuff going on? I have very clearly acknowledged the genuine Antimaidan movement (it's actually very important to me), I have only said that it was characterized by regionalism and federalism rather than separatism and Russian nationalism. Of course it was Russophilic, as opposed to being anti-Russia, but to say, as you said, that they felt closer to Russia than Ukraine, is fiction. They felt closer to Russia than Maidan, but in their own way, they were still patriots. Since the war started in 2022, we have not seen any pro-Russia sentiment in unoccupied eastern and southern Ukraine, for obvious reasons. But also because even Antimaidan Ukrainians were not disassociated from their own country.

Party of Regions was not a rabidly pro-Russia organization. Yanukovych won 2010 on a moderate platform focused on restoring economic stability and a middle path regarding relations with Russia and the west, promising to put Ukraine on a path to EU membership! Of course the party was deeply tied to Russian interests, but being the "party of Russia" isn't exactly a winning strategy.

[KaiserDave]

I wasn't talking about separatism. Separatism came as a direct consequence of Maidan.  And yes, it has to do with Russian influence (btw any world power would not let it slide in their own backyard) but to ignore all other stuff that was going on is disingenuous

What other stuff going on? I have very clearly acknowledged the genuine Antimaidan movement (it's actually very important to me), I have only said that it was characterized by regionalism and federalism rather than separatism and Russian nationalism. Of course it was Russophilic, as opposed to being anti-Russia, but to say, as you said, that they felt closer to Russia than Ukraine, is fiction. They felt closer to Russia than Maidan, but in their own way, they were still patriots. Since the war started in 2022, we have not seen any pro-Russia sentiment in unoccupied eastern and southern Ukraine, for obvious reasons. But also because even Antimaidan Ukrainians were not disassociated from their own country.

Party of Regions was not a rabidly pro-Russia organization. Yanukovych won 2010 on a moderate platform focused on restoring economic stability and a middle path regarding relations with Russia and the west, promising to put Ukraine on a path to EU membership! Of course the party was deeply tied to Russian interests, but being the "party of Russia" isn't exactly a winning strategy.

I literally said closer to Russia than Maidan not Ukraine. You said it yourself russophillic, what are we talking about again?

I might have gotten confused, to me you seemed to be saying Antimaidan demonstrators felt closer to Russia then Ukraine, I tried to strongly disabuse you of that notion, but I conceded they may feel closer to Russia then they do to the new government (while still retaining their patriotism).

Let me restate the two claims I have made today and yesterday, you tell me if you disagree.

1. Yanukovych was removed in a constitutionally legitimate manner, and morally speaking, abrogated his own democratic mandate by illegally passing and enforcing the Anti-Protest Laws. He fled the country despite no threat to his personal safety in Kharkiv, and his actions, especially consistent with months of time dedicated to smuggling embezzled wealth out of the country, were consistent with a longstanding fear of legal consequences.
2. The Antimaidan movement was majority populist, regionalist, and federalist in character, not separatist. It was Russophilic, but not Russian nationalist in character. Separatism in Donetsk and Luhansk was almost entirely astroturfed by Russian special operations and later, direct intervention, and was in no significant way popular or organic.
3. I have also clarified misconceptions about language.

[KaiserDave]

I wasn't talking about separatism. Separatism came as a direct consequence of Maidan.  And yes, it has to do with Russian influence (btw any world power would not let it slide in their own backyard) but to ignore all other stuff that was going on is disingenuous

What other stuff going on? I have very clearly acknowledged the genuine Antimaidan movement (it's actually very important to me), I have only said that it was characterized by regionalism and federalism rather than separatism and Russian nationalism. Of course it was Russophilic, as opposed to being anti-Russia, but to say, as you said, that they felt closer to Russia than Ukraine, is fiction. They felt closer to Russia than Maidan, but in their own way, they were still patriots. Since the war started in 2022, we have not seen any pro-Russia sentiment in unoccupied eastern and southern Ukraine, for obvious reasons. But also because even Antimaidan Ukrainians were not disassociated from their own country.

Party of Regions was not a rabidly pro-Russia organization. Yanukovych won 2010 on a moderate platform focused on restoring economic stability and a middle path regarding relations with Russia and the west, promising to put Ukraine on a path to EU membership! Of course the party was deeply tied to Russian interests, but being the "party of Russia" isn't exactly a winning strategy.

I literally said closer to Russia than Maidan not Ukraine. You said it yourself russophillic, what are we talking about again?

I might have gotten confused, to me you seemed to be saying Antimaidan demonstrators felt closer to Russia then Ukraine, I tried to strongly disabuse you of that notion, but I conceded they may feel closer to Russia then they do to the new government (while still retaining their patriotism).

Let me restate the two claims I have made today and yesterday, you tell me if you disagree.

1. Yanukovych was removed in a constitutionally legitimate manner, and morally speaking, abrogated his own democratic mandate by illegally passing and enforcing the Anti-Protest Laws. He fled the country despite no threat to his personal safety in Kharkiv, and his actions, especially consistent with months of time dedicated to smuggling embezzled wealth out of the country, were consistent with a longstanding fear of legal consequences.
2. The Antimaidan movement was majority populist, regionalist, and federalist in character, not separatist. It was Russophilic, but not Russian nationalist in character. Separatism in Donetsk and Luhansk was almost entirely astroturfed by Russian special operations and later, direct intervention, and was in no significant way popular or organic.
3. I have also clarified misconceptions about language.

I strongly disagree with 1
Partialy agree with 2
Partialy agree with 3

Very well. Then I just have two questions for you. What did Yanukovych spend late 2013 and early 2014 physically transporting railcars of his wealth out of the country? And why did he leave Kharkiv for Rostov?

[KaiserDave]

Aside from the fact that Woodbury is a troll, the Russians have been fairly clear they don’t even want to be in Lviv. Not part of Putin's Great Russia really.

[KaiserDave]

A great way to make Putin's imaginary Ukrainian fascist state real is to give it a stab-in-the-back narrative. Simultaneously, Russia is already descending towards fascism, experiencing a failed fascist coup d'etat by a disgruntled hot dog salesman earlier this year.