Vermont Megathread

[KaiserDave]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q9M8cooJeGU&feature=emb_title

Thoughts on the Latest Zuck ad?

I find it very silly that he compares himself to FDR and Obama, but also I like his farm themed website, but that's another matter.

[KaiserDave]

Some more fun stuff

I noticed today that Scott's challengers in 2018 and 2020 both got similar vote totals.

In 2018 Keith Stern won 11,617 votes, good for 32.22%, Scott got 24,042 (66.67%).

In 2020, John Klar got 12,762 (21.94%) and Scott got 72.62%, which is 42,275.

This would suggest the anti-Philist coalition has remained roughly the same, with Scott getting a new wave of support this round. Curious.

[KaiserDave]

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulheintz/status/1323732725250088960

I smell vindication

[KaiserDave]

Someone needs to make an edit of the Bill Nye intro.

Phil! Phil! Phil! Phil! Phil!

With a spinning Scott head yes

Also, my final prediction for this race is

Phil Scott (R): 58%
David Zuckerman (P/D): 40%
Other: 2%

Scott carries every county but Windham, which he loses narrowly.

[KaiserDave]

Love you guys! Yes Phil did fantastic! Unprecedented! Beautiful!

[KaiserDave]

The scale of this victory is truly unprecedented. He won every county and almost every township.

Absolutely amazing

Any comments folks? How bout from our resident Vermonters?

[KaiserDave]

Milne lost by 8, which was honestly better than I expected, and Republicans made gains in the state legislature. I think Scott will get his veto pen back.

[KaiserDave]

2018
Governor Phillip B. Scott: 55.4%-151,261
CEO Christine Hallquist: 40.4%-110,335

2020
Governor Phillip B. Scott: 68.8%-248,436
Lt. Governor David Zuckerman: 27.5%-99,222


Let's examine these municipality level results. Statewide results are provided for reference.

David Zuckerman got annihilated. Phil over performed even my own expectations. Zuckerman performed like a third party candidate running against an otherwise unopposed incumbent, not as the nominee of the biggest statewide party. Though ironically he is a member of a third party (albeit a legitimately powerful one). Zuckerman's collapse is really unprecedented. Even in Jim Douglas's landslide 2004 win, he only won 58.7% of the vote. The Democratic voting base ceased to exist.

Even in municipalities that were strong for Christine Hallquist, who otherwise flopped (only getting just over 40%), Zuckerman was floored. Look at the Brattleboro area in south eastern Vermont as he best example. Zuckerman scrapped by only in thee municipalities there.

And look across the state. The swings are massive. In Municipalities that Scott won in 2018, with around 50% or 60% of the vote (still extremely impressive for a statewide Republican), he soared to new heights and David Zuckerman absolutely collapsed. Just look all over as the shades of red darken from pinkish red into dark crimson. In the north the shade is nearly black as Scott soars over 90% of the vote. Especially in northern Lamoille, Franklin, and Washington counties, Zuckerman absolutely collapsed. In areas where Hallquist nearly cracked 60%, Zuckerman is lucky to approach 40%.

And look at Burlington! That headquarters of Vermont leftism! The city that elects the left of the left to the city council. Hallquist got over 70%, Zuckerman wins it by around 200 votes.

The support for Phil Scott is astounding. The victory is unparalleled.

As I predicted, Philslide 3.0 is upon us.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.facebook.com/vtdigger/videos/439517860515451/

State of the State Address

One of the few real leaders we have left

[KaiserDave]

Renamed thread as the election is over and I don't see the need to create a new one given we have so much VT discussion here

https://vtdigger.org/2021/01/11/moats-in-these-grim-times-phil-scott-offers-message-of-purpose-and-hope/

The latest in Phil

[KaiserDave]

The state is only democratic because Patrick Leahy is propping up the entire democratic bench in the state, the rest of them are just flunkies or else like Howard Dean turned into annoying twitter people. The state remaining democrat is just a product of bad feelings from the bush administration regarding overt religiosity, once he's out of the office the state is destined to become titanium R like all Rural White areas are doomed to become.

You're either kidding or delusional

[KaiserDave]

The state is only democratic because Patrick Leahy is propping up the entire democratic bench in the state, the rest of them are just flunkies or else like Howard Dean turned into annoying twitter people. The state remaining democrat is just a product of bad feelings from the bush administration regarding overt religiosity, once he's out of the office the state is destined to become titanium R like all Rural White areas are doomed to become.

You're either kidding or delusional

Look at the 2020 gubernatioral race map from the state, the dems are doomed long-term. Soon the entire state will be controlled by Phill Scott.

Never mind you're not delusional at all.

[KaiserDave]

How long do we think Scott will stay in office for? It's pretty clear that he'll be Governor for as long as he wants, but has he given any indication of when he might retire?

That's a good question.
He took his time to announce this year (primary was in August, he filed in May), but that can be explained by the COVID crisis. I think he enjoys being Governor, and I thinks its possible he wants to manage the recovery and will run for a fourth and final term in 2022, and conclude his tenure by 2025.

However, I'm not sure. He could retire in 2022.

[KaiserDave]

https://www.wcax.com/2021/01/15/scott-vermont-gop-due-for-post-trump-soul-searching/

Phil Scott spoke on the subject of the Vermont Republican Party, which has spread conspiracy theories on voter fraud and the election. He said he was hopeful that the GOP would return to its roots in limited government and markets, but that “Whether they will continue with what I perceive as white supremacy dominating, racial inequity, and so forth, then we’ll all have to make some decisions,”


:eyes: :eyes: :eyes:

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1351961027882180608

Phil's statement on the inauguration, I like the liberal themes!

[KaiserDave]

Phil Scott outran Donald Trump by 77 points in total. That is an absurdly high amount, especially considering how hyper-polarized our political environment is nowadays. Really hoping Phil Scott does not run for Senate in 2022, because he could probably beat Leahy if he did.

Nope

How many times does it need to be said that gubernatorial results are not good markers for senate ones?

If Scott ran against Leahy (he won't), Leahy wins 59/40. If Scott ran against T.J. Donovan for an open seat, Donovan wins 56/43. Obviously these are approximate estimates.

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1352018566657298433

Phil Scott is not running against Leahy

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/GovPhilScott/status/1352018566657298433
Phil Scott is not running against Leahy

Maybe not. But if Leahy ends up retiring, then Scott has laid the groundwork to pull the same strategy that Dems have using in Arizona since 2018, claiming to be closer to the values and legacy of McCain than their GOP opponents (I'm sure that line got used in the 2018, 2020 Senate races, as well as the 2020 presidential race).

He can say he's honouring "the spirit of bipartisanship, embodied by my predecessor" and all that kind of stuff.

I'm not saying it would work, but it definitely seems like a strategy. Just depends now whether Leahy wants to run again at 82.

_{On a side note: does America really need a third Senator Scott? You've already got two (SC, FL).}

Interesting point, definitely worth thinking about. But I only did say that he won't run against Leahy should Leahy seek re-election.

[KaiserDave]

Leahy isn't really that moderate though, he endorsed Bernie in 2020.

Leahy isn't a moderate at all yeah. He's a FISA Warrant Hawk (as in he's very suspicious of them), has criticized US aid to certain IDF units, supports humanitarian aid to Palestine, opposed the Iraq War, has called for an end to the death penalty, major prison reform, and has been quite liberal on economic issues of the day.

He's so cool. He's also in every Batman movie.

[KaiserDave]

I really don't think Scott will run for Senate. He can be Governor for life if he wants, he'll never face a competitive election unless he messes up big time. Why would he throw that away for a longshot Senate bid? Especially when he'll be forced to take tough votes and be forced to take stances on national issues that he can mostly ignore as Governor. Not to mention, he's already in his 60s, meaning he could only serve a max of like 3 terms, meaning he'll never have the chance to chair any powerful committees, especially when he probably wouldn't have a great relationship with the GOP Senate leadership. A Senate run makes no sense for him from a career perspective.

I would largely agree with you. Running for Senate doesn't make much sense, especially, he probably loses (although it's possible he thinks he could win due to his landslide). Although I am also skeptical he would serve as Governor for more than 8 years. We'll have to see.

There's also the chance he pulls a Jeffords and runs for Senate, although there is little evidence for that (but there is some).

[KaiserDave]

I just read that Patrick Leahy's predecessor was also the most senior senator in the country at the time of his retirement. He was first sworn in, in 1941. That seems crazy to me.

It's absolutely bonkers. And Leahy's predecessor was George Aiken, a fantastic Senator and even better Governor.

[KaiserDave]

I just read that Patrick Leahy's predecessor was also the most senior senator in the country at the time of his retirement. He was first sworn in, in 1941. That seems crazy to me.

It's absolutely bonkers. And Leahy's predecessor was George Aiken, a fantastic Senator and even better Governor.

If all Republicans were like Vermont Republicans, this country would be in much better shape. Vermont didn't leave the GOP, the GOP left them.

"True conservation provides for wise use by the general public. The American people do not want our resources preserved for the exclusive use of the wealthy. These land and water resources belong to the people, and people of all income levels should have easy access to them."-George Aiken

Disgraceful RINO!!!! AGhHHhhH

[KaiserDave]

https://vtdigger.org/2021/01/26/watch-live-gov-phil-scotts-2021-budget-address/

https://www.wcax.com/2021/01/26/governor-to-deliver-virtual-budget-address/

Perhaps less seen with all the news about Senator Leahy, something very important happen in Vermont politics today. Governor Scott delivered his budget address. The expected budget shortfall as a result of COVID related blows was erased and then some by federal stimulus cash. Scott's Budget had no tax increases (no Scott budget has), and made hundreds of millions in one time investments in infrastructure, broadband, 1.89 billion each for Pre-K-12 education and the general fund, and millions more for small businesses and other matters.

The State Legislature Democrats appear generally on board.

Phil in many cases in making his mark as one of the state's most important, transformative, and long term impacting governors. Not something he expected in 2016 I'd bet.

See Cuomo, it's not that hard.

[KaiserDave]

https://suncommunitynews.com/news/86269/petition-calls-for-vt-gov-phil-scott-to-leave-the-gop/

https://vtdigger.org/2021/01/27/petition-calls-on-scott-to-leave-republican-party/

The Chair of the Essex County (VT's most conservative county, went to Trump by 11% and Scott by 59%) is circulating a petition for Phil Scott to leave the GOP. He's not alone in this regard, from the right and the left. While the state GOP leadership isn't supportive of this at all, when asked about this earlier Scott said he would consider it if the GOP continued with what he sees as "white supremacy' and "racial inequity."

I'd watch for some action here.

[KaiserDave]

I'm surprised Phil has not drawn a serious primary challenger. In 2018, Charlie Baker just won with 64% in the Republican primary against an unknown right-wing pastor. That's less than his vote share in the general election.

That Pastor wasn't unknown I'm afraid. He helped author the Ugandan "kill the gays" law. Which makes it even crazier he got such a total of votes.

I am also amazed at how Scott has beaten back his challengers. First, Keith Stern in 2018 who had the momentum of the pro gun backlash, and then John Klar in 2020 with a fully Trumpized GOP.

But consider this, in Vermont there is no partisan registration. You can pull a Democratic or Republican ballot. I suspect thousands of Vermont Democrats pull Republican ballots to keep Phil in. And you know, in 2020, thousands of Vermont Democrats and even 41 Vermont Progressives (good for 4.9% in that primary) wrote in Phil Scott on their ballots.