2020 Montana Statewide Elections Megathread

[KaiserDave]

Let's go Cooney, was hoping for him.

[KaiserDave]

Feeling good about Mike Cooney

[KaiserDave]

Cooney Cruiser Team Members who love #populism join up!!!

[KaiserDave]

With 66% in, Cooney is leading in Yellowstone County 52.5% to 47.5%. Could be a long night, especially when Missoula comes in.

If enough Atlas posters pledge to the Cooney Cruiser it will cause seismic changes in the count! Atlas posts are almost as powerful as Gary Peter's motorcycle.

[KaiserDave]

Big new vote dump, Williams narrowly ahead in Missoula but Cooney massacred her in Lewis and Clark.

[KaiserDave]

Big new vote dump, Williams narrowly ahead in Missoula but Cooney massacred her in Lewis and Clark.

Well, Cooney lives in Helena and has represented the area for decades. It’s his base where he really needed to run up the score.

Williams needs to win Missoula by more than just 5 points.

What do you anticipate from Gallatin? (beautiful county btw)

[KaiserDave]

Petroleum county votes for Cooney! This is everything!

[KaiserDave]

Gallatin? Probably Williams if I had to guess.

Also, where’s HeirofCamelot? Gianforte is beating both Olszewski and Fox (who’s in third place) in Flathead (Olszewski's home turf, which he even carried in the 2018 R primary) despite all those non-existent Gianforte yard signs and foxy Fox retail politics.

You were right! Gallatin comes in narrowly for Williams, making the race closer. Race looks quite close, remaining Billings ballots will be key.

[KaiserDave]

Could we get a east-west split here?

[KaiserDave]

Cooney surges back into a more comfortable lead with Great Falls and western montana coming in.

[KaiserDave]

Who would you say is favored in the dem primary right now?

Definitely Cooney. She’s not getting the margins she needs out of her strongest counties, and as long as they split Missoula/Billings/Bozeman and Cooney dominates in Helena/Great Falls and wins most of the rural areas, he will be fine.

Probably 54% Cooney, 46% Williams if I had to guess.

Looks so

Your preliminary rating of MT-GOV Cooney vs Gianforte is Tilt D I would guess?

[KaiserDave]

Your preliminary rating of MT-GOV Cooney vs Gianforte is Tilt D I would guess?

It’s going to be a really close one. I don’t feel comfortable tilting it one way or another, it’s a pure Tossup (and I certainly wouldn’t underestimate Gianforte; he’s not a "weaker candidate" than Daines).

But you would agree Fox would've been stronger?

[KaiserDave]

Your preliminary rating of MT-GOV Cooney vs Gianforte is Tilt D I would guess?

It’s going to be a really close one. I don’t feel comfortable tilting it one way or another, it’s a pure Tossup (and I certainly wouldn’t underestimate Gianforte; he’s not a "weaker candidate" than Daines).

Personally for me its Safe R. Gianforte will be helped by Daines giga coatails. Daines wins by 40 pts and Gianforte by 35 pts

Daines is truly unbeatable. The greatest titan of our time.

[KaiserDave]

Calling it, Cooney wins.

#Populists rejoice

[KaiserDave]

NYT has Cooney winning. This will be an exciting race.

[KaiserDave]

Tom Winter raised a respectable 800K. He just got curb stomped.

I think he got into the habit of posting on Social Media and the echo chamber making him think he was doing better than he was. You have to go out and campaign (which was obviously screwed up by the pandemic). A lot of the older voters who vote in primaries aren't even on Facebook and Twitter. He  didn't do yard signs either, no mailings, no ads. WTF did he spend his money on?

It seems he forgot the core populist principles of retail politics. :/

[KaiserDave]

Tom Winter raised a respectable 800K. He just got curb stomped.

I think he got into the habit of posting on Social Media and the echo chamber making him think he was doing better than he was. You have to go out and campaign (which was obviously screwed up by the pandemic). A lot of the older voters who vote in primaries aren't even on Facebook and Twitter. He  didn't do yard signs either, no mailings, no ads. WTF did he spend his money on?

It seems he forgot the core populist principles of retail politics. :/

It almost certainly couldn't have saved Winter given the margin by which he ultimately lost, but traditional retail politics has been harder for pretty much everyone who isn't heavily relying on name recognition because of COVID-19's destruction of canvassing and ground operations.

All true

[KaiserDave]

I think that's probably his plan but I don't really like his chances. His style rubs some the wrong way (ie. posting on Social Media every 15 minutes, being a Missouri transplant, not doing retail politics, not shaving, being unmarried, doing a Tinder profile for his campaign etc).

Had he gotten 30-40% of the vote I'd say he would be a favorite but getting curb stomped this hard (I think he got blown out more than any other statewide race) is a pretty strong repudiation from Montanans. KW is not that well liked either. Also he had a weird "October surprise" in the form of a picture at a Trump rally in '16 grinning like an idiot in an Uncle Sam costume and his explanation about it was not very convincing (he said he was there to protest, *cough bullsh**t).

Plus he only served one session in the State House before jumping to run for Congress and he'll be 3 years removed by that point. His following seems to be young people and progressives (who are notorious for not voting in primaries). By 22' there will be other rising stars like Bryce Bennett and Raph Graybill to contend with and likely a golden boy or girl from the state legislature who will rise to prominence in this election while he's sitting at home posting about his dog.

Where does KW's weak popularity come from?

[KaiserDave]

She ran a very compelling primary campaign in '18 where she traveled around the state to every county with her dog in an old Winnebago and she was polling third and then pulled off a huge upset and won the primary (I voted for her). Then she hired a bunch of Clintonistas from the Hillary campaign and ran the most boring, vanilla, consultant driven campaign that I've ever seen in Montana politics and blew a golden opportunity to knock off Gianforte before he became entrenched. In a year when she had a massive blue wave and Tester's coattails she seemed to be content to sleepwalk to second place.

I've had some dealing with her staff and they are extremely pretentious and "high on their own farts" and the only thing they do particularly well is fundraise. Their ads are lame, she has a small mousey voice, and she dresses like a hobo. She refuses to throw any punches ever, and doesn't have a clue how to fire up the troops. That's not going to get it done.

Wow, she had it and then...lost it.

Unfortunate

Hopefully she gets it back before November

[KaiserDave]

There is a strong nativist streak here. There is a trope in Montana about rich out of staters moving in and buying huge ranches and then denying public access to the rivers and streams (cough* Greg Gianforte) and then running for office  and blowing their opponents away with their money advantages (Greg again).

It's created a certain resentment among people who were born and raised here and had to develop a strong sense of community and rugged resourcefulness to survive.

As a fly fisherman I am offended by NJ Greg's activities in the first paragraph there.

Let's go Montana Mike against New Jersey Greg!

[KaiserDave]

Is Schweitzer’s career over for good?

[KaiserDave]

Quist had other problems. He allowed his opponent and the RNC and affiliate groups, with an assist from the Billings Gazette's Tom Lutey to define him negatively in voters minds before he had a chance to make his own case. Not being a career politician hurt him. Also Gianforte's body slam happened after most of the vote had already been cast so it's effect was minimal (amplified by Sinclair Broadcasting, which own most MT affiliates, refusal to even air it).

He hit all the benchmarks for victory but losing by 20 Points in Yellowstone (where Montana's largest city Billings is located) was an absolute killer. He actually won his hometown of Kalispell (the in town precincts) which is somewhat mind boggling. He did very solidly in Ravalli as well (Hamilton). Both of those are traditionally beet red.

Is Rob’s statewide career over?

[KaiserDave]

Is Schweitzer's career over for good?

Yes. I asked him and his response was, "I did my 8 years."

Is Rob Quist's statewide career over for good?

Yes. He's enjoying his grandson and mostly retired from music as well as he is currently in his 70's. However, Rob Quist's son Guthrie Quist (who worked on his campaign) is currently running in the state's buzziest State Senate race in District 03. He's going against the patriarch of the local Regier Dynasty. Tester actually flipped that district 2 years ago so if Guthrie can get elected he will be one to watch. The MDLCC has targeted that race. It has a lot of people very intrigued here locally.

That's unfortunate. Schweitzer is a solid candidate, and him not running in 2014 was a loss.

Hypothetically if he had ran for Senate this year would he be doing well against Daines?

[KaiserDave]

Is Schweitzer's career over for good?

Yes. I asked him and his response was, "I did my 8 years."

Is Rob Quist's statewide career over for good?

Yes. He's enjoying his grandson and mostly retired from music as well as he is currently in his 70's. However, Rob Quist's son Guthrie Quist (who worked on his campaign) is currently running in the state's buzziest State Senate race in District 03. He's going against the patriarch of the local Regier Dynasty. Tester actually flipped that district 2 years ago so if Guthrie can get elected he will be one to watch. The MDLCC has targeted that race. It has a lot of people very intrigued here locally.

That's unfortunate. Schweitzer is a solid candidate, and him not running in 2014 was a loss.

Hypothetically if he had ran for Senate this year would he be doing well against Daines?

Schweitzer would obliterate Daines. He's a legend. In his Gubernatorial reelection campaign he won every county in Montana except 4. There are 56 counties in Montana, Brian won 52 and he's still pissed about those four haha. For context Bullock won 7 (the big ones).

I recently talked to a friend of his that told me he used to spend 6-8 hours a day cold calling voters when he was in campaign mode.

The problem is Brian told me that after being an executive he's not much interested in being one vote out of a hundred. He spends a lot of time at his home in Arizona these days and has kind of ridden off into the sunset so to speak.

Phil Bredesen carried every county in the state in 2006, and then only won the three bluest in 2018. I think Schweitzer would have had a fighting chance in 2014 (especially if Baucus still resigned and Bullock appointed him instead of the other guy), but if he'd run this year he would have ended up like Bredesen/Bayh/Feingold/Strickland.

Eh I don’t think so
Schweitzer is very different

And Montana is too

[KaiserDave]

More kitchen-table issues

https://twitter.com/CooneyforMT/status/1313293670343348226

Okay but that is epic



Do you think Cooney has a shot or has that shipped sailed because of Gianforte's wonderful Bipartisan Moose Steaks (TM)?