Most overrated/underrated Senate candidates? Part III (2020)

[KaiserDave]

Overated:

Mike Espy: Maybe it's just hardcore Dems who think he can win or has a chance, but in a presidential year there is little chance he'll lose by less then 10ish

Cory Gardner:
Cory Gardner has voted like Ted Cruz (except on marijuana) in a Clinton +5 state. He is easily the Dean Heller of 2020, and especially if Hickenlooper runs, will be smoked accordingly in 2020.

Mike Beebe:
Obviously Bredesen Beebe is a popular former governor who won every county in his reelection bid and will defeat the overly conservative Blackburn Cotton who is a weak candidate in a general election.

Charlie Baker:
I love Charlie as much as the next guy, but I do not think he will run for the seat, and if he did, he'd face a popular Markey in a presidential year, or a popular Joe Kennedy III/Niki Tsongas/Marty Walsh. Bill Weld tried this too against John Kerry right after carrying 70% in 1994, he lost by 6ish.

Mitch Landrieu:
He might do about as well as his sister did in the runoff, but anybody who thinks a New Orleans mayor could beat Cassidy in a presidential year, increased polarization, yadayadayadayada. He ain't winning.

David Perdue:
He's unpopular, and if with a strong candidate (Barrow, Evans...idk about Abrams) and a good environment, this seat is flippable.

Anybody who runs against Capito:
Whether it's Goodwin, Tomblin, Tennant again, whoever. They will lose in this Trump +30 state in a presidential year.


Rated Accurately:

Doug Jones:
I have this race as Likely R, I think the consensus around Jones is likely accurate. If the GOP nominates a solid candidate like Byrne, Brooks, Roby, and definitely Ivey (if she runs). Jones will likely lose by some margin. But I think he could still be underestimated, especially if 2020 is a good year for the Democrats. Especially considering I've heard mumbles that Roy is mulling another run (and even Kayla!)

John Cornyn:
Again, I think the consensus is right, he's definitely favored. But with a strong challenger (Beto) and a good Democratic environment, and a good POTUS candidate, it could be close.


Underrated:

Mark Warner:
This is easily safely Democratic, and Warner could win by like 25 if Stewart runs again. It'll be hilarious.

Gary Peters:
Yeah, the only reason Stabenow underperformed was the strength of John James. Unless John James runs again, I don't think this can flip. Michigan is likely to flip in 2020, unless Dems nominate somebody awful (Clinton, Avenatti-lite, you know the list). He's not unpopular, he's just unknown, he won by 14 in a red wave year, yes I know his opponent imploded but that's impressive nevertheless.

Susan Collins:
IF she runs, and I think it's an if. She will win. Provided conservatives don't buck her in the primary, she'll win the general. She's still popular, and her state brand is very strong. But if she doesn't run, Democrats have their easiest pickup opportunity.

Tina Smith:
Anyone who thinks Smith will lose didn't watch the absolute drubbing of Housley, who was a strongish candidate.

Mitch McConnell
Ewwwwww, but yeah. Not in 2020, and other then Grimes, and Beshear is off the bench, Democrats don't have much to do here.