Why Did Carter Get No SCOTUS Appointments?

[cwh2018]

Just an issue of timing and a bit of an anomaly really. Nixon got 4 picks in his first term alone and then Ford got a fifth pick for that GOP administration and Marshall was appointed at the end of the Johnson/Kennedy admin meaning there was only a possibility of 3 seats to  pick from, and of those 3 Brennan was the oldest at 70 at the start of the term.  If Carter had been re-elected Brennan may have retired in 83 or 84.  Potter Stewart and White were especially young for Scotus, as they along with Thomas are the only people appointed to the court under 45 after the second world war.


We could be in for a similarly weird situation with Biden as he could very well serve for 2 terms and only get 1 nomination or some variation of it.  Sotomayor could end up "trapped" on the court like Marshall and Brennan in some respects, particularly if a dem wins in 2024.  The dems will probably not have the senate making it a possibility that no nominee leaning left could be confirmed for her and she would be 75 when the 2028 election rolls around.  If the GOP nominee were to win 2 terms from there then she would have to go until she is 82/83 like Breyer now and supposedly her health is not the best.

The next GOP president is practically guaranteed 2 picks as I assume Alito will step down if the GOP wins in 2024 as he will be just turning 75 and he does not strike me as a guy who wants to be there for a long time and I assume Thomas will go after 33 years, and if not then Roberts will leave.

[cwh2018]

Just an issue of timing and a bit of an anomaly really. Nixon got 4 picks in his first term alone and then Ford got a fifth pick for that GOP administration and Marshall was appointed at the end of the Johnson/Kennedy admin meaning there was only a possibility of 3 seats to  pick from, and of those 3 Brennan was the oldest at 70 at the start of the term.  If Carter had been re-elected Brennan may have retired in 83 or 84.  Potter Stewart and White were especially young for Scotus, as they along with Thomas are the only people appointed to the court under 45 after the second world war.

Thomas is the most conservative justice and his wife is closely linked with a number of conservative lobby groups so he will certainly retire under a GOP president.  The Gop legal groups also realise how close they came to losing the courts with Scalia's death.  It would not have been a guaranteed long-term deal as Clinton would have needed to replace Breyer and Ginsburg, but the legal groups were trying to edge Thomas out the door and he is only 72, which is very young by Scotus standards.  The Scalia scare will have been reinforced by Ginsburg refusing to resign and then being relaced by someone vastly different to her.  With the Garland situation conservatives also know they could have a vacancy blocked if the dems hold the senate if a vacancy happens under a GOP pres and dem senate.


We could be in for a similarly weird situation with Biden as he could very well serve for 2 terms and only get 1 nomination or some variation of it.  Sotomayor could end up "trapped" on the court like Marshall and Brennan in some respects, particularly if a dem wins in 2024.  The dems will probably not have the senate making it a possibility that no nominee leaning left could be confirmed for her and she would be 75 when the 2028 election rolls around.  If the GOP nominee were to win 2 terms from there then she would have to go until she is 82/83 like Breyer now and supposedly her health is not the best.

The next GOP president is practically guaranteed 2 picks as I assume Alito will step down if the GOP wins in 2024 as he will be just turning 75 and he does not strike me as a guy who wants to be there for a long time and I assume Thomas will go after 33 years, and if not then Roberts will leave.

Thomas seems to be determined to become the longest-serving Associate Justice in the Court's history, and I could very well see him remaining on the bench until he dies. But I'd agree with you about Sotomayor, and I think it's possible that Roberts might retire under the next Republican President. Interestingly enough, every Chief Justice over the past 68 years has been appointed by a Republican President. The last Chief Justice to be appointed by a Democratic President (Fred M. Vinson), served from 1946-1953. Lyndon Johnson had the opportunity to replace Earl Warren in 1968, but he botched it by choosing the ethically dubious and controversial Abe Fortas.

Had Johnson nominated someone less controversial, then the legacy of the Warren Court would have been cemented further, and it would have had a major impact on the Court's direction. A Johnson-appointed Chief Justice-assuming he had chosen someone in their early 50s who served for ~20-30 years-would probably have meant that neither Burger nor Rehnquist would have ever obtained the position.

Thomas is the most conservative justice and his wife is closely linked with a number of conservative lobby groups so he will certainly retire under a GOP president.  The Gop legal groups also realise how close they came to losing the courts with Scalia's death.  It would not have been a guaranteed long-term deal as Clinton would have needed to replace Breyer and Ginsburg, but the legal groups were trying to edge Thomas out the door and he is only 72, which is very young by Scotus standards.  The Scalia scare will have been reinforced by Ginsburg refusing to resign and then being relaced by someone vastly different to her.  With the Garland situation conservatives also know they could have a vacancy blocked if the dems hold the senate if a vacancy happens under a GOP pres and dem senate.

[cwh2018]

Just an issue of timing and a bit of an anomaly really. Nixon got 4 picks in his first term alone and then Ford got a fifth pick for that GOP administration and Marshall was appointed at the end of the Johnson/Kennedy admin meaning there was only a possibility of 3 seats to  pick from, and of those 3 Brennan was the oldest at 70 at the start of the term.  If Carter had been re-elected Brennan may have retired in 83 or 84.  Potter Stewart and White were especially young for Scotus, as they along with Thomas are the only people appointed to the court under 45 after the second world war.


We could be in for a similarly weird situation with Biden as he could very well serve for 2 terms and only get 1 nomination or some variation of it.  Sotomayor could end up "trapped" on the court like Marshall and Brennan in some respects, particularly if a dem wins in 2024.  The dems will probably not have the senate making it a possibility that no nominee leaning left could be confirmed for her and she would be 75 when the 2028 election rolls around.  If the GOP nominee were to win 2 terms from there then she would have to go until she is 82/83 like Breyer now and supposedly her health is not the best.

The next GOP president is practically guaranteed 2 picks as I assume Alito will step down if the GOP wins in 2024 as he will be just turning 75 and he does not strike me as a guy who wants to be there for a long time and I assume Thomas will go after 33 years, and if not then Roberts will leave.

Interesting.  Biden almost certainly gets to appoint someone to Breyer's seat later this year or next, so he's ahead of Carter.  Beyond that, it does look unlikely for him to get a second seat, unless Dems hold the senate much longer than expected.  Thomas and Alito can almost surely wait for 2025, or for Senate Republicans to hold the seat open in 2023 in the worst case.  Given that the next 2 years are probably the only Dem President/Dem Senate alignment until the 2033+, it would make sense for Sotomayor to consider stepping down before 2022 if she cares strongly about having an ideologically similar successor, but she is under 70, so I doubt she will do this.  I give it a 25% chance.

The other possibility is really pronounced split between Roberts and the rest of the conservative block, to the point where he has lost all his influence and decides to just retire this year or next and give Dems CJ to spite them.  He's the same age as Sotomayor.  I'd give this maybe a 10% chance.  

I think one thing with Scotus that commentators never mention with regards to longevity is the seniority system at the court.  Justices stay a long time to try and get into a situation where they can assign themselves major/landmark cases and you probably need to be the 2nd or third most senior justice, especially if the court is overall not with you.  Alito may well retire in 2025 after 20 years and have been assigned more landmark/major cases than Breyer or Ginsburg who both served for a quarter of a century and have very few major decisions between them.

[cwh2018]

I don't think Roberts would retire under a dem president as he is still a judicial conservative.
If Sotomayor were to retire at the end of the Biden presidency she would be only 70, she would be as young as Souter but have only been on the court for 15 years.  This would be the shortest spell in recent times with Lewis Powell being the most likely comparison as he served 15 and a half terms on the court, but he was also one of the oldest at 63 or 4 when appointed to the court. 

It should only be something she should consider if the democrats hold the senate in the  2022 elections she could leave in the summer of 2024 giving her 15 years on the court and would allow there to be at least 3 liberal seats for the next 12 or so years anyway.

[cwh2018]

Just an issue of timing and a bit of an anomaly really. Nixon got 4 picks in his first term alone and then Ford got a fifth pick for that GOP administration and Marshall was appointed at the end of the Johnson/Kennedy admin meaning there was only a possibility of 3 seats to  pick from, and of those 3 Brennan was the oldest at 70 at the start of the term.  If Carter had been re-elected Brennan may have retired in 83 or 84.  Potter Stewart and White were especially young for Scotus, as they along with Thomas are the only people appointed to the court under 45 after the second world war.

Thomas is the most conservative justice and his wife is closely linked with a number of conservative lobby groups so he will certainly retire under a GOP president.  The Gop legal groups also realise how close they came to losing the courts with Scalia's death.  It would not have been a guaranteed long-term deal as Clinton would have needed to replace Breyer and Ginsburg, but the legal groups were trying to edge Thomas out the door and he is only 72, which is very young by Scotus standards.  The Scalia scare will have been reinforced by Ginsburg refusing to resign and then being relaced by someone vastly different to her.  With the Garland situation conservatives also know they could have a vacancy blocked if the dems hold the senate if a vacancy happens under a GOP pres and dem senate.


We could be in for a similarly weird situation with Biden as he could very well serve for 2 terms and only get 1 nomination or some variation of it.  Sotomayor could end up "trapped" on the court like Marshall and Brennan in some respects, particularly if a dem wins in 2024.  The dems will probably not have the senate making it a possibility that no nominee leaning left could be confirmed for her and she would be 75 when the 2028 election rolls around.  If the GOP nominee were to win 2 terms from there then she would have to go until she is 82/83 like Breyer now and supposedly her health is not the best.

The next GOP president is practically guaranteed 2 picks as I assume Alito will step down if the GOP wins in 2024 as he will be just turning 75 and he does not strike me as a guy who wants to be there for a long time and I assume Thomas will go after 33 years, and if not then Roberts will leave.

Thomas seems to be determined to become the longest-serving Associate Justice in the Court's history, and I could very well see him remaining on the bench until he dies. But I'd agree with you about Sotomayor, and I think it's possible that Roberts might retire under the next Republican President. Interestingly enough, every Chief Justice over the past 68 years has been appointed by a Republican President. The last Chief Justice to be appointed by a Democratic President (Fred M. Vinson), served from 1946-1953. Lyndon Johnson had the opportunity to replace Earl Warren in 1968, but he botched it by choosing the ethically dubious and controversial Abe Fortas.

Had Johnson nominated someone less controversial, then the legacy of the Warren Court would have been cemented further, and it would have had a major impact on the Court's direction. A Johnson-appointed Chief Justice-assuming he had chosen someone in their early 50s who served for ~20-30 years-would probably have meant that neither Burger nor Rehnquist would have ever obtained the position.

Thomas is the most conservative justice and his wife is closely linked with a number of conservative lobby groups so he will certainly retire under a GOP president.  The Gop legal groups also realise how close they came to losing the courts with Scalia's death.  It would not have been a guaranteed long-term deal as Clinton would have needed to replace Breyer and Ginsburg, but the legal groups were trying to edge Thomas out the door and he is only 72, which is very young by Scotus standards.  The Scalia scare will have been reinforced by Ginsburg refusing to resign and then being relaced by someone vastly different to her.  With the Garland situation conservatives also know they could have a vacancy blocked if the dems hold the senate if a vacancy happens under a GOP pres and dem senate.

You seem absolutely convinced of this? I've read otherwise, but if Thomas does retire under the next Republican President, it wouldn't be surprising.

Thomas is the most conservative by vote and ideology and has been since he joined the court, he is the most conservative justice probably going back to FDR.  He is a higly partisan conservative individual who is closely aligned with everything to do with conservative GOP politics, this is not a big secret.

Thomas,Sotomayor and Alito in particular will want to retire under their party.

[cwh2018]

Not for nothing, but Thomas has publicly said time & time again that he'll die on the bench, ideology be damned.

Alito will definitely retire during the next Republican presidency, though.

This highlights the difference between highly ideological (Thomas, RBG, Gorsuch*) and highly partisan (Alito, Sotomayor) justices.  This is also why I really could see Sotomayor retiring this year or next to be sure of a similarly committed Dem successor. 

*highly ideological libertarian, at a 90 degree angle to the partisan positions in many cases

Thomas will retire under the next GOP president,  is also highly partisan, but has a somewhat unique jurisprudence where as Alito and Sotomayor are simply like party political operatives. Thomas also dissented in both Trump cases, despite agreeing with the Clinton v Jones  decision from Justice Stevens.

[cwh2018]

Not for nothing, but Thomas has publicly said time & time again that he'll die on the bench, ideology be damned.

It's difficult to see Thomas retiring unless he could ensure he is replaced not just by a conservative justice, but by someone in his particular mold. Jim Ho on the 5th Circuit, who's a former Thomas clerk, may come close based on his tenure so far, but I don't know if anyone who exactly mirrors Thomas exists anywhere.
It will be hard to get someone like Thomas as his vision of law is so unique, perhaps Allison Rushing would be the best fit to replace him.

If Trump had won re-election Thomas would have retired this or next summer as far as I am concerned.

All that said, I think Thomas wants to hold on until he gets to overturn Bakke/Grutter/Fisher.

[cwh2018]

I will end with this, that I think Thomas is highly partisan, like all on the court and will retire if able to at a time that suits himself and allowing the GOP to keep the seat with a like-minded successor.