PA GOV 2022: Stick a fork in it

[ctherainbow]

Meanwhile, do we know how much Barletta has raised? He's been running for a few months now

Early reports are that he's raised his ego by at least 37%

[ctherainbow]

Can we talk about Shapiro trying his damnedest to railroad the state and county parties into endorsing/supporting his Lt Gov pick?  Like, I understand endorsing someone and saying “hey”, I would like to work with this person if elected”, but Davis doesn’t even have his own campaign team or infrastructure.  Shapiro is literally running everything for him at the moment.  Shapiro has also asked several county parties to cancel other non-Davis Lt Gov candidate appearances, and cancelled his own scheduled appearances when they refused to put their thumbs on the scale like that.  It will be interesting to watch two items: first, whether or not Davis emerges out of the State Committee meeting with the PA Dems endorsement, which will require a two-thirds vote out of the full endorsement committee.  And second, if Davis does win the May (June?) primary, what do the margins look like outside of Pittsburgh/Montgomery?

It’s just really strange to me that Josh and/or Josh’s team are being so coercive; had he just endorsed Davis and let the primary play out, I could see Davis winning on his own.  At this point Josh is making it harder for him.

[ctherainbow]

Nah, I think it’s good that he chose the person he wanted to work with and is actively campaigning for him. It’s stupid that PA even has a primary for the Lt Gov position because if the electorate has enough faith in the person they’re electing as Gov, they should have enough faith in the person they’re electing as second in command. It was certainly an anomaly to see Fetterman upset an incumbent Lt Gov specifically because Wolf chose not to put a thumb on the scale. That ended up working out, but if Shapiro decides he’d rather work with Davis than Sims, that’s his prerogative. Shapiro is the de facto nominee and therefore the de facto face of the PA Dems at this point anyway.

Huh.  Gonna have to disagree with you; I think it would be stupid to diminish the input of PA voters by reducing the Lt Gov to just another appointed position that party leadership has control over at the end of the day.  I’m generally against reducing voter choice, though, so this just isn’t an exception for me. 

I also think that it’s incredibly entitled and petulant of Josh to essentially say “yeah, I know this is an elected position, but this is who’s gonna be my Lt Gov; if you don’t cancel events with the other candidates, I’m not coming to your events.”  It would be one thing if Shapiro had just endorsed/campaigned with Davis, but flat-out trying to coerce county committees into cancelling appearances by other candidates is way too far for me.  If you want proof, let me know; I’ll put you in touch with the Lycoming County Dems, who can tell you a thing or two about Josh’s recent bullsh**t.

Honestly, as much as I feel bad for Sims and Sosa, I feel even more bad for Davis.  He’s a young legislator who doesn’t have a ton of experience under his belt yet, and was clearly picked because A, he’s geographically what Josh is not, B, he’s demographically what Josh is not, and C, he won’t outshine Josh.  He’s super friendly and I think he has a good career ahead of him in the House or wherever else he wants to go, I’m just worried that Josh/Josh’s team is going to damage his future by acting the way they are while trying to push his candidacy.

[ctherainbow]

I'm quite into politics and even I haven't seen what you're saying. I think sometimes we overestimate the inside baseball stuff. To the average person, Josh has endorsed him and is his running mate, that's pretty much it.

Oh, I don't disagree with you on that note at all; I doubt the average voter knows yet that this has been happening behind the scenes, and they may never.  But within the PA Dems party structure, this strong-arming is doing huge damage to Josh's activist support among rural counties, which is the main reason he was able to run ahead of topline Dems like Biden.  We NEED to keep the Governor's mansion, but if the activist/volunteer base is pissed off and won't put in the work, I'm a little worried.

For reference, I am part of the Susquehanna County party structure, and best friends with our State Committee rep, so I am mired up to the eyeballs in behind the scenes Dem Party stuff, and definitely guilty of probably not being able to see over the weeds and have an average voter view on it.

[ctherainbow]

Ctherainbow has been a pretty reliable source for some of the inside baseball stuff, though. I wouldn't doubt his connection to some of the folks he's talking about. And while, yes, it is off-putting that Shapiro is essentially blackballing counties who won't go along with his handpicked candidate (and I believe his diagnosis for why Shapiro chose Davis is accurate) it doesn't exactly cause me to think less of Shapiro because the primary is so uncompetitive. For a long time, Sims was the only serious candidate running and Patty Kim was the only candidate who was seriously considering running, and she ultimately decided not to. I don't particularly like Sims (though I can't say I particularly dislike him either, I'm very meh about him) but there are certainly better candidates and Davis is one of them. He just happens to be the one that was selected.

Sometimes you have to elbow your way into getting the Lt Gov you want to avoid, as we've mentioned, a repeat of Mike Stack. I think it's smart of Shapiro to see past the immediate future and I think Davis is a worthy candidate to elevate. It's obvious that Josh has wanted to be Gov ever since he was getting his start in PA politics, so I guess he's just trying to make things go as much according to plan as possible. I trust him either way.

Aww, well thanks.  I've just been lucky to get to know folks as friends who are in the Democratic Party structure here, so I try to share what I ethically can.

For me, the black-balling does make me think a lot less of Josh, but we can agree on one thing; I am also a Kenyatta-wanter!   

[ctherainbow]

This is really anecdotal but I've seen way more people than expected say they're voting for Brian Sims for Lt. Gov on Twitter/Instagram. I still think Davis wins but Sims could have a surprisingly good showing, especially being from Philly whereas Davis is from Western PA.

I mean, Sims is the only one in the Governor/LG’s race who’s actually shown up in rural counties.  Drawing from my personal experience crisscrossing NEPA for state senate and house candidates, I’d be kinda surprised if Davis wins any of the Northeast except maybe Lackawanna and Luzerne where the establishment Dem leadership caved to Shapiro’s strong arming.

For reference, I am from Susquehanna County, and Sims has been here 2 times in person and at least 5 times via Zoom, while Shapiro has completely ignored us, and Davis stopped once, for literally 5 minutes, to take a photo and leave.   💀

[ctherainbow]

Apparently the PA Chief Justice passed away last night.  RIP.

He was a Dem (generally considered the most moderate of the 5) and he would have reached the mandatory retirement age in December of this year had he lived.  Does anyone know how the replacement process works and whether that changes now that he sadly left a couple months earlier than planned?

The remaining 4 Dems are slated to be on the court through at least 2025, so the majority that would hear any 2022/24 election related disputes is not at stake with this appointment/election.

Governor appoints, subject to State Senate confirmation, so I imagine it stays open or (less likely) Wolf nominates a non-crazy Republican who will pass muster with the Senate, but I doubt he will want to give any Republican incumbency with the seat up for election next year anyway.

[ctherainbow]

Yeah, he’s 100% been studying Obama.  Even over the course of this year’s campaign, it’s been noticeable every time I’ve seen him speak at an event that his cadence, pitch, and pacing is starting to be almost identical to Barack’s.

And re: Josh running for Pres, it’s the worst-kept secret in PA Dems circles.  We’ve all known since he first ran statewide that he wants the presidency.  I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t bother to serve 2 terms as Gov and just runs in 2028.  If there is one criticism of Josh that has some teeth to it, it’s that he’s a climber.

[ctherainbow]

There's nothing necessarily wrong with being a climber. He's always spent at least a few years in every position he's held and seems to have done a pretty bang-up job in those roles. Obama was a climber too, more than Shapiro really, but it didn't really hamper his career.

Definitely nothing wrong with it in terms of policy, and you're 100% correct that he has done a great job in his previous positions.  But optically, it makes him come across as power seeking.   *shrugs*   Hopefully it won't effect him in the future!

[ctherainbow]

Heads up, Luzerne County is having serious issues with races not appearing on the ballot in some precincts, other precincts are running out of paper and had to put a hold on voting while they went to buy more.  Luzerne is always a sh**tshow, but this one’s gonna be especially ugly.

[ctherainbow]

I have reports coming in now that the Luzerne County Chair successfully sued to keep Luzerne County polls open until 10pm to make up the lost time when precincts didn’t have paper to print ballots.

(But I also have reports that they’re running out of provisional ballots now, since they were using them to let people vote while the machines were down)

[ctherainbow]

Looks like we're currently in the lead, or poised to take the lead with final mail-in ballot counting, in 102 of the 203 PA State House seats.  A flip would mark the first time in 12 years that Dems have won the majority in the State House.