Brown or Tester? Which Democratic incumbent is more likely to survive? (user search)

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Brown or Tester? Which Democratic incumbent is more likely to survive? (search mode)

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Poll

Question:

#1 Sherrod Brown		23 (57.5%)
#2 Jon Tester		17 (42.5%)

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Partisan results

Total Voters: 40

Author

Topic: Brown or Tester? Which Democratic incumbent is more likely to survive? (Read 368 times)

SnowLabrador
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Re: Brown or Tester? Which Democratic incumbent is more likely to survive?

« on: May 23, 2024, 09:38:10 AM »

Brown, just because Ohio isn't as red as Montana.

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SnowLabrador
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Posts: 10,227

Re: Brown or Tester? Which Democratic incumbent is more likely to survive?

« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2024, 12:40:11 PM »

Quote from: Xing on May 23, 2024, 12:34:23 PM

Tester has to overperform Biden by quite a bit more, and since Brown has a joke of an opponent, it's easier to see him winning, even if his race is probably still a Toss-Up at best.

Not only that, but turnout in 2018 was extremely favorable for Democrats in Montana in a way it's unlikely to be in 2024. Brown's win in 2018 was far more based on persuasion.

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SnowLabrador
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Posts: 10,227

Re: Brown or Tester? Which Democratic incumbent is more likely to survive?

« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2024, 04:59:55 PM »

Quote from: Ljube on May 23, 2024, 04:25:04 PM

Tester is toast. He is the Cory Gardner of 2024.

I could see him losing by a similar margin. My current prediction is Sheehy +7, but it could go higher if Biden's toxicity trickles down more.

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