Internal pollster in Michigan: none of my polls have found Biden leading

[SnowLabrador]

He needs to drop out. Is it too late?

[SnowLabrador]

The election is 6 months from now.

The “it’s still early” argument loses force around this time

https://twitter.com/QPollsandnews/status/1784644420215652767

11/16 is only 69% rate. That's not as high as the rest of the tweet makes it sound.

Perhaps this is true with more conventional elections, but we have a very unique one with the presidency this year and there are still lots of variables and developments that can play out.

Just look at Trump's rallies from yesterday, he is bringing up abortion unprompted.

If abortion was going to cost Trump this election, he'd already be trailing. People have forgotten about Dobbs. I don't think people should become used to abortion being illegal in half the country, but that is exactly what has happened. The only thing that can save Biden is a ceasefire that lasts, and if that doesn't happen, the only thing that can save Democrats is a different nominee.

[SnowLabrador]

The election is 6 months from now.

The “it’s still early” argument loses force around this time

https://twitter.com/QPollsandnews/status/1784644420215652767

11/16 is only 69% rate. That's not as high as the rest of the tweet makes it sound.

Perhaps this is true with more conventional elections, but we have a very unique one with the presidency this year and there are still lots of variables and developments that can play out.

Just look at Trump's rallies from yesterday, he is bringing up abortion unprompted.

If abortion was going to cost Trump this election, he'd already be trailing. People have forgotten about Dobbs. I don't think people should become used to abortion being illegal in half the country, but that is exactly what has happened. The only thing that can save Biden is a ceasefire that lasts, and if that doesn't happen, the only thing that can save Democrats is a different nominee.

What you fail to understand is that polls are not real life. Trump can't be declared President based off of polling, he would actually have to win the election. And as we have seen over the past two years Republicans have been heavily overestimated in polling. Abortion wasn't supposed to matter in 2022 yet it did.

But the issue was more salient before people became adjusted to the new reality of abortion access in the U.S. Again, I don't like that persuadable voters seem to have become numb to abortion bans and the horror stories we keep hearing in the media, but I prefer to view things as they are rather than as I might like them to be.