MT-Sen 2024 Megathread: Unbeatable Titan Tester

[SnowLabrador]

Unless Biden wins Montana, Tester can't win. Safe R. Polls will show it close, but don't let that fool you.

[SnowLabrador]

Let's set some ground rules for this thread: no responding to SnowLabrador and no responding to MillennialModerate. They will not change their minds on this race no matter how high Tester polls and it is not worth allowing continued derailments with unending feedback loops between them and their responders, which also renders the ignore option useless.

Repeat this in other threads for similar quality control purposes.

TBF, polls showed Daines and Bullock in a close race that ended up being a blowout so there's reason to take them with a grain of salt.

This. The polling average was like Daines +2 (not that there were very many polls) and the final result was Daines +10. Trump will likely be on the ballot again, so I have no reason to trust the polls this time either. Tester will need a tremendous amount of split tickets to win, and that'll be a lot harder this time than in 2012.

[SnowLabrador]

Early polling means nothing, especially since the primary has yet to occur and there are so many undecideds. Tester is going to run well ahead of Biden, but it almost certainly won't be enough.

[SnowLabrador]

Tester IN

https://twitter.com/jontester/status/1628372874879766528?s=46&t=wuEOJQ5C-H9z...

Phew. This would have been an auto-flip without him. Truth be told, it probably will still flip, but we've at least got a chance with Tester running. If Tester had retired, there would be no chance.

[SnowLabrador]

That’s a shame. Zinke is weaker than Rosendale.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1643259668821684225?s=20

Well, that sucks. Not that it matters. I truly believe Tester was going to lose anyway.

[SnowLabrador]

This could be a good move, so long as he doesn’t go full MAGA like Donnelly or McCaskill did in 2018.

[SnowLabrador]

Higher turnout helps Republicans in Montana. Rosendale will win, probably by about 52-45 or something like that.

[SnowLabrador]

When are they gonna poll this race they haven't even Poll this race yet

Now they have. Tester trails Sheehy by 4, Rosendale by 3. Considering that the primary hasn't happened yet, and there's still room for consolidation, my prediction is that seven-fingers loses by seven points.

[SnowLabrador]

When are they gonna poll this race they haven't even Poll this race yet

Now they have. Tester trails Sheehy by 4, Rosendale by 3. Considering that the primary hasn't happened yet, and there's still room for consolidation, my prediction is that seven-fingers loses by seven points.

How would you rate his chances compared to Sherrod Brown or Colin Allred’s?

I think Tester's chances are slightly worse than Allred's and significantly worse than Brown's. I think Cruz wins by 6 or 7, and Brown loses by 3-5.

[SnowLabrador]

When are they gonna poll this race they haven't even Poll this race yet

Now they have. Tester trails Sheehy by 4, Rosendale by 3. Considering that the primary hasn't happened yet, and there's still room for consolidation, my prediction is that seven-fingers loses by seven points.

How would you rate his chances compared to Sherrod Brown or Colin Allred’s?

I think Tester's chances are slightly worse than Allred's and significantly worse than Brown's. I think Cruz wins by 6 or 7, and Brown loses by 3-5.

Do you have Tester doing better or worse than Rick Scott’s opponent?

Better. Scott wins by at least 10.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1730293137791164712?t=MhStUZI-UuJwLuNn2...

It was never Lean D. This is Tester's most difficult race by far.

[SnowLabrador]

What are the odds that Rosendale doesn't even run?

[SnowLabrador]

What are the odds that Rosendale doesn't even run?

I think its quite likely he just runs for re-election in the house where he has more power and influence. A Senate bid means he has to get everything together in a short amount of time, fundraise, comeback in the primary and beat Sheehy, and then takedown Tester in November. Its def doable, but very tricky and not worth giving up a guaranteed house seat.

That's decent news for Tester in my view, since I feel like Sheehy will be easier to define. That being said, the fact that Steve Bullock lost by 10 points means that Tester's got a deep hole to climb out of. It's hard for me to see him increasing his crossover appeal from 2018 as polarization increases, so if the electorate looks like 2020 at all, he's done.

[SnowLabrador]

I’m still thinking Rosendale runs for re-election to the House. If he wanted to run for Senate, he could’ve announced already

I hope you're right, because I don't think the "Maryland Matt" attack will be as potent this time against Rosendale. Then again, who am I kidding, Tester's doomed anyway because of presidential turnout.

[SnowLabrador]

Honestly, my previous prediction of Sheehy +7 might be too generous to Tester. Biden's going to lose Montana by more than he did last time considering how badly he's doing nationally.

[SnowLabrador]

I honestly didn't think Rosendale would run. I guess this primary could be interesting. The general election will not be.

[SnowLabrador]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I feel like if Rosendale does run and win the primary, Senate leadership will only give him half-hearted support if they give him any support him at all.

I really think they'd prefer the seat to be held by a member of the other team who generally votes his party's line but can be a partner on bipartisan legislation than someone who would be on their team but seems to revel in stirring up chaos and being a contrarian just for the sake of it.

You're wrong. They'd rather have Cocaine Mitch as Senate Majority Leader than a Democratic majority, even if that majority is dependent on Tester's vote.

[SnowLabrador]

So, I live in Montana. Yellowstone  County, to be specific. And I've noticed a lot of Biden signs popping up lately. Keep in mind, this is a traditionally Republican county and voted for Trump overwhelmingly in 2016 and 2020. It's also a huge energy county. But Biden has A LOT of support here. I even heard a neighbor of mine say, "Yeah, I voted for Trump but I think I'm going with Montana Joe this time around -- he has our backs." And yeah, they do affectionately call him "Joetana" now. It's so weird. I'm very concerned Trump is finished this November.

Signs don't vote, ask Beto O'Rourke.

[SnowLabrador]

Congratulations Senator Rosendale. Trump will endorse him.

[SnowLabrador]

Ugh this sucks, he is going to lose the primary and we are going to lose of the best people in the house.

I suppose Rosendale is going with logic of the famous LBJ quote: "The difference between being a member of the House and being a member of the Senate is the difference between chicken salad and chicken sh*t".

Isn't Trump going to endorse Rosendale? If he does this primary is over.

[SnowLabrador]

Dang it. Rosendale is much stronger than Sheehy. I think that the "out of state" attacks on Rosendale will be far less potent when he'll have been a Congressman for four years.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm fully convinced that McConnell will leave him out to dry if he wins the primary.

Even if Rosendale wins the primary and McConnell doesn't help him, he will win. Tester is doomed.

[SnowLabrador]

Rosendale is a clueless idiot. Why run and throw away your house seat?

He's not. Trump will endorse him, and then he'll win the primary and defeat Tester.

[SnowLabrador]

Tim Sheehy's already endorsed by Trump

https://www.allsides.com/news/2024-02-09-1425/politics-trump-backs-sheehy-montana-senate-race

Oh. In that case, stick a fork in Rosendale.