Early Voting thread.

[SnowLabrador]

I voted today in Massachusetts. That's it. That's the post.

[SnowLabrador]

So Georgia's probably going to a runoff, based on the early vote data alone. Granted, that's what most people here seemed to think anyway.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1583955336305643522

I assume by 2 years ago he meant 2018.

Bad weather today in Clark County, heavy winds, but I think we are seeing a real shift to absentees from in person voting in Nevada. We won't know anything useful until we start seeing absentee numbers.

That's bad news for Cortez Masto. Very bad news. Yes, it might be because of the weather, but who's to say it won't be this windy on Election Day?

[SnowLabrador]

People should feel free to use data to prove their priors, but many are misusing it to do so.

1) Those Ralston reports are based on the vote that’s in right now. Given that the GOP cleans up on Election Day, it’s absolutely brutal for there to be any scenario where Laxalt is within 1 point in the early vote. If 90% of the vote is early, that just means he needs to win Election Day by 10 points or so.

2) Comparisons to 2018 are only valid if there is evidence of the voting method pattern being similar to 2018 (primary results, polling, etc) I’ve seen examples of states where it resembles 2020, I’ve seen zero evidence of places where it resembles 2018.

I thought Ralston said Dems won ED in Nevada in the past, it’s just a low number.

We'll have to see, but the current data looks bad for Cortez Masto.

[SnowLabrador]

Georgia

Day 15 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 149,794 voters cast ballots Monday, for a grand total of 1,810,427 votes.

Looking like the black vote has been sufficiently cannibalized at this point.

Breakdown of Monday's voters:

Code:

90075 	White	60.13%
39004 	Black	26.04%
2915         Asian	1.95%
2858    	Latino	1.91%
14942 	Other	9.97%

80922	Female	54.02%
68491 	Male	        45.72%	
381          Other         0.26%

Total votes thus far:

Code:

1042146	White	57.56%
538808	Black	29.76%
31443	Asian	1.74%
30092       Latino	1.66%
167938	Other	9.28%

996006	Female	55.01%
810623	Male	        44.78%	
3798	        Other	0.21%

So in short, Warnock's probably going to lose based on the early vote.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1588883116068065281

I can't say I'm surprised by this. It's always the blue areas that experience election problems for some reason. And by "some reason", I of course mean GOP voter suppression.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/asdfjkalsdfla/status/1589424569349439488
https://twitter.com/asdfjkalsdfla/status/1589424578530799617

Adam, you got any thoughts on this?

My name's not Adam, but this can't be good.

[SnowLabrador]

60-40 R-D/I split doesn't seem too bad for Ds - yet - in Maricopa, considering we were preparing for a huge influx of Rs today.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1590004418019459072

The tweet is gone. Is this the one that said 100k voters?

It’s more like 40k, same 60 R - 25 I - 15 D split.

Should get bluer throughout the day, but probably not by much.

It looks like Masters is probably going to win.

[SnowLabrador]

So when does early voting start in Georgia for the runoff?

There is actually a bit of controversy about this.  They can't start setting up for the runoff until the first election is certified (which should be soon), so having the runoff so soon after the election and with Thanksgiving in the middle really cuts down the early voting time.  Basically, it's Mon-Fri the week after Thanksgiving, with counties having the option to add the Tue-Wed and Sun around Thanksgiving.  Problematically, voting on the Saturday after Thanksgiving is NOT allowed due to a state law preventing it on the Saturday following a Thursday or Friday holiday.  However, the state Democratic Party, the DSC, and the Warnock campaign have filed suit to allow it on that Saturday.

What's the atmosphere like on the ground, GA? Fatigue? Excitement?

Probably more like boredom, here in Forsyth County.  It seems like the runoff is not nearly as much on people's radar as the general election was.  The volume of ads I'm seeing has dropped way off and is now predominantly pro-Warnock/anti-Walker; before Nov. 8 it was about 50-50.

Hopefully that's an indication that the Democrats are more likely to vote in this one. Warnock cannot afford any apathy on his side.