Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[SnowLabrador]

If Russia invades Ukraine, it helps the GOP either way.

If Biden doesn't respond, he's a weak leader who won't help protect our allies. If he does respond, he's trying to start World War III. Either message is extraordinarily dishonest, but it'll still work.

[SnowLabrador]

So just when COVID is possibly in retreat, we get World War III. I suppose it's no surprise, since 2022 is pronounced "2020 too."

[SnowLabrador]

So just when COVID is possibly in retreat, we get World War III. I suppose it's no surprise, since 2022 is pronounced "2020 too."

Still, at least if it comes soon it means Bolsonaro won't win re-election. Every cloud

What does World War III have to do with Bolsonaro's re-election prospects?

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1496978193617600514

There will be a bombardment of Kyiv in roughly two hours. I'd never thought there would be anyone I'd hate more than Trump, but Putin's up there.

[SnowLabrador]

It's absolutely imperative Ukraine wins the war. If Russia wins, they will start invading other countries too.

[SnowLabrador]

Personally, it seems like the war is out of the news cycle, and people are growing numb to it. This is a very bad sign for Western unity, and it shows that World War III is getting more likely (since Russia is now more likely to win the war and then start invading other countries.)

[SnowLabrador]

It's hard for me to be excited about this. Every acre Ukraine takes back makes it more likely Vlad will go nuclear.

[SnowLabrador]

Ukraine is being asked to soften its stance on negotiations with Russia:

U.S. privately asking Ukraine to drop public refusal of peace talks with Russia: Washington Post

American policymakers are likely concerned by the externalities caused by a particularly long war. We're already seeing the global economy decrease in overall efficiency.

If Russia gets its way in Ukraine, there will eventually be a much bigger war. Appeasement doesn't work. Suck it up, Western leaders.

[SnowLabrador]

Ukraine is being asked to soften its stance on negotiations with Russia:

U.S. privately asking Ukraine to drop public refusal of peace talks with Russia: Washington Post

American policymakers are likely concerned by the externalities caused by a particularly long war. We're already seeing the global economy decrease in overall efficiency.

If Russia gets its way in Ukraine, there will eventually be a much bigger war. Appeasement doesn't work. Suck it up, Western leaders.

Well, there is a whole spectrum of results between "Russia getting its way" and "status quo antebellum" which is where I think we will eventually end up.  It just seems Ukraine thinks that "status quo antebellum" is possible so they are just going to fight on until it becomes clear it is not possible in their view.  Of course, if the collective West defines "Russia getting its way" being anything other than "status quo antebellum" then we are in for a long period of protracted war and there is no point in talks anyway.

If Russia comes away with an acre more territory than they started this war with, they will see it as a success and are likely to invade again. Even if Putin dies, he'll just be replaced by someone even worse.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't want World War III to happen, but we can't just let Putin have all of Europe. One silver lining of WWIII, however, would be that it might help Biden get re-elected; I see Trump as more dangerous than Putin.

[SnowLabrador]

LivemapUA seems to concur that Russia made advances to the South of Bakhmut

That sucks. I made a thread today about why I think there's no way the war doesn't become World War III, but it'll certainly happen if Russia achieves its goal of conquering Ukraine.

[SnowLabrador]

This is why Russia will win the war unless NATO sends in troops. Man for man, they will grind it out in a war of attrition. It might be a pyrrhic victory, but Russia will do whatever it takes to win Ukraine. This sets a really dangerous precedent, needless to say.

[SnowLabrador]

If they seize that airport, it's World War III. They're going to move into Romania. Russia doesn't respect the agreements it's in, why would they treat NATO as anything other than toilet paper?

[SnowLabrador]

Russia has already won.

[SnowLabrador]

This is yet another example of Biden having to clean up Trump's mess. Trump helped cause this war.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm pro-Ukraine, but I don't understand the narrative that Ukraine is winning. The counteroffensive is going on at a snail's pace.

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHNLzAV5Xso

The counteroffensive has failed. Russia will win, leading to World War III.

[SnowLabrador]

Ukraine is clearly losing. NATO had better up its game.

[SnowLabrador]

Russia is winning, and it's the US' fault.

[SnowLabrador]

It's Donald Trump and Mike Johnson's fault that the city was lost. Evil, evil men, and every single American has Ukrainian blood on their hands.

[SnowLabrador]

There just isn't any good news for Ukraine lately, is there?

[SnowLabrador]

Knowing that everything happening in Ukraine is the US' fault makes me feel sick to my stomach.

[SnowLabrador]

Ukraine has until January 2029 to expel Russian forces from its entire territory if we're lucky. More likely, only until January 2025. That's why I'm deeply pessimistic on their chances - time is not on their side. They need a major breakthrough, and they need it at a time when Russia seems to be having most of the breakthroughs.