KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R -> Safe R

[SnowLabrador]

The primary could be interesting to watch. I think even Kris Kobach would win the general election, though.

[SnowLabrador]

Anyone who says this is anything other than Safe R is kidding themselves. Trump will win the state by double digits.

[SnowLabrador]

Eh I never really saw Pompeo running for this.

[SnowLabrador]

Even Kris Kobach would win the Senate race. The only reason Laura Kelly was able to win was because it was a state race, not a federal race, less subject to polarization. Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator in over 80 years.

[SnowLabrador]

Kobach to announce for Senate next month, report says.

(via Sunflower State Journal)

KS-SEN is Lean D if Kobach wins the nomination.

Nope, Likely to Safe R. The only reason Kobach lost the gubernatorial election is because it was a state race, not a national race.

[SnowLabrador]

Grissom, if nominated, will win seat

Only if Kobach is the nominee.

[SnowLabrador]

Okay, Kobach v. Grissom would be Safe R, not Likely R.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Marshall wins the primary and general election.

[SnowLabrador]

Thank goodness for KS, I am bullish on Dems chances on expanding our majority to 255 in House and having 50+ seats in Senate; as a result of: Trump

Dude, there are still a lot of things that have to go right.

[SnowLabrador]

I guess we can safely assume now that there will be no last minute entry by Mike Pompeo to save Republicans from Kobach.

Republicans aren't dumb enough to nominate Kobach again.

[SnowLabrador]

^ Good. But still she has almost unsurmountable difficulties in KS-01...

This race is going to be an uphill battle for any Democrat, even against Kobach. She has a year to make inroads, too.

[SnowLabrador]

So Mike Pompeo is, once again, considering running for Senate. Here's a link to a relevant article (although it's behind a paywall, so I haven't read the whole thing).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pompeo-discusses-senate-race-in-kansas-with-koch-11572116305?mod=hp_lead_pos10

[SnowLabrador]

Not good! Barbara Bollier is exactly the kind of shrill neoliberal establishment corporatist Kansans love to elect (Kelly, Kassebaum, Sebelius), especially when Republicans nominate a radical male. Might be time to move this to Tossup, especially considering that Trump's approval rating has plummeted in the state.

This assumes that Kobach is the Republican nominee, which I seriously doubt.

[SnowLabrador]

Pompeo has created a personal Twitter account -

https://twitter.com/mikepompeo

Possibly a sign that he's going to jump in the Senate race soon?

He has until next June to decide

Even if Pompeo doesn't run, this seat is unwinnable for Democrats. Every Senate race in 2016 went the same way as the Presidential race, and I don't see why it should be different in 2020. Even if Kobach is the nominee, it would take a tremendous amount of split tickets.

[SnowLabrador]

I don't buy that Pompeo is really out. He keeps saying no, then "maybe", then no again. This will keep happening until he either enters or the filing deadline (June 1) passes.

[SnowLabrador]

My guess is Trump will endorse Marshall. I don't think Kobach would lose the general election, but that's not a risk the GOP is willing to take.

[SnowLabrador]

If it was Kobach-Marshall duel in a GOP primary, Kobach would lose. But Kansas' GOP primary doesn't have a runoff. Kobach can win GOP primary with a 35% bloc of radical GOP voters if Marshall has to share moderate, non-radical votes with Wagle and Lindstrom.

This is important to note. The more people are in the primary, the better Kobach's chances.

[SnowLabrador]

I've been saying, Kobach isn't guaranteed the nomination. In fact, I think Marshall is going to be the nominee. The GOP isn't stupid enough to let Kobach win the primary again.

[SnowLabrador]

I still think that even if Kobach is the R nominee, partisanship will kick in and they'll elect him. Remember that Phil Bredesen was leading Marsha Blackburn in many polls around this time in the 2018 cycle.

[SnowLabrador]

Kobach isn't going to be the nominee. Roger Marshall is raising a lot more money and will most likely get Trump's endorsement.

[SnowLabrador]

Kobach isn't going to be the nominee. Roger Marshall is raising a lot more money and will most likely get Trump's endorsement.

Bummer.

I get that the margin would be closer with Kobach but I don't want that idiot anywhere near the senate

It's not just "that the margin would be closer." It's that race would legitimately be winnable.

I don't think it's winnable even with Kobach, but let's stop pretending that Senator Kris Kobach would be any more dangerous than Senator Roger Marshall in terms of voting record.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/bryanlowry3/status/1250533789731893248?s=21

did Marshall's campaign release any numbers

Yeah. Marshall raised $376k in Q1, so not too much better.

[SnowLabrador]

I think I will have trouble controlling my laughter if Republicans piss away this seat

I will too, but they won't. Kobach will not win the primary.

[SnowLabrador]

The KSGOP chair sent letters to Wagle and Lindstrom asking them to withdraw.

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1253404995946496003?s=20

Watch this backfire spectacularly against the KSGOP and Kobach ends up winning.

If they want Wagle and Lindstrom to withdraw in order to stop Kobach from being the nominee, then I think it's pretty clear that they favor Marshall. No need to try and deny it.