New Survey USA Congressional polling shows big gains for Dems

[okstate]

ARIZONA - 5
JD Hayworth 48 - R
Harry Mitchell 45 - D

Trends - Hayworth led by 12 in mid-September

MINNESOTA - 2
John Kline 50 - R
Colleen Rowley - 42 - D

Trends - Kline led by 20 in late September

CALIFORNIA - 50
Brian Bilbray - 49 - R
Francine Busby - 46 - D

Trends - Bilbray led by 14 in mid September

NEW MEXICO - 1
Heather Wilson - 45 - R
Patricia Madrin - 53 - D

Trends - Wilson led by 5 in mid September

http://surveyusa.com/electionpolls.aspx

[okstate]

The only one I really trust is the NM 01 poll and I doubt that Madrid is going to win by that much. I say 4 or 5 pts at the most.

I take the view that this is just Survey USA reaffirming CD/Majority Watch in the sense that a wave is beginning to form. This is exactly what we'd expect to see as the House playing field begins to widen -- the competitive districts start to move strongly to the Democratcs and the "safe" GOP districts suddenly look a lot less certain.