Hate to break it to you but Kansas, Missouri, North Carolina, Montana, etc. aren't "purple" states just because the Obama fanatics say they are.
Missouri? Solid Republican? Really?
Anyway, I agree with you on the rest, and the fun part is, we can lose each of those states and every state like it and still get 320 EVs. The 2004 mentality is thinking that North Carolina, Wyoming, Utah, etc. are somehow definitive of the mainstream.
Missouri isn't solidly Republican but it's definitley a likely Republican state.
I agree with Phil. I will have to see more than a single Senate seat change to convince me. At present, it does appear Democrats will capture the Governorship, right? I've been so busy, I haven't had a chance to follow up. But even so, what happens in statewide elections for Senate or Governor is often very different than what happens for President.
Missouri is still very likely to vote McCain in 2008. Less likely than North Dakota or South Carolina, certainly. But I'd put Missouri in the LIKELY R category, assuming ratings that range from CERTAIN - LIKELY - LEAN - TOSSUP and back again.