The Case for North Carolina: A Devil's Advocate Obamargument

[JSojourner]

I'm all for Obama spending like crazy in North Carolina.  Bush only carried it by 13 points and that's with a Democratic NC senator on the ticket.  But hey, spend away.

While you're at it, why not spend a ton in Georgia, they have an even bigger black population and some "progressive" whites in the Atlanta suburbs.  Also, don't forget the students at the University of Georgia and Georgia Tech.

Why stop there?  How about Texas?  Lots of "energized" blacks in Dallas and Houston.  Think of all those college students in Austin and don't forget Hispanic voters in South Texas.  Plus, the superior organization of the Obama campaign could probably pull off the registration of illegal immigrants throughout the state.

We even had an Obama cultist yesterday claim that West Virginia would be a swing state with Obama at the head of the ticket.  It seems that no state is beyond the reach of this new political superman.

Yep, no state is out of reach of this new Messiah.  The Obama Nation!

Holy hyberbole batman. Is this any different from the numerous McCain supporters who think their messiah and his great "independent-ness" would put Massachusetts and California in play for the Republicans?

No.  Both are equally ludicrous.  I'm not sure the map will look exactly like it did in 2004.  But I am not terribly impressed with Democratic predictions of sweeping the Plains states and the upper South...or with Republican insistence on McCain delivering Maine and California. 

Could McCain pick off New Hampshire or Michigan?  Surely.  Could Obama make a race of it in Missouri or Colorado?  You bet.  But I have no delusions either way.

[JSojourner]

This is what I have been saying for a long time but no one believes me. This is a good atricle about how NC has changed:

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2008/03/more_than_you_ever_wanted_to_k.php

I have several North Carolina friends and customers.  Some Democrat, most Republican.  All the Democrats say they are certain the state will go Democratic in November.  The Republicans are split.

But you know what that is?  Anecdotal crapola and speculation.

North Carolina is securely Republican territory.  Not likely R.  Certain R.

Now, if there were a McCain meltdown or a major disaster in Iraq or with the economy, then I could see NC being among the R states to flip.  But all things being equal, even with Mike Easley as Obama's running mate, NC is absolutely safe for the GOP.  I wish I were wrong about that.