The problem with all these maps is that there are so many scenarios to consider. What if Gore completely underperforms and flames out like Dukakis? What if Giuliani sets the country on fire? What if Giuliani wins the nomination but is found in bed with a campaign aide? What if Gore is caught participating in a Wiccan ritual worshipping mother earth?
Of course, I am being silly. But you see what I mean. Anything can happen. Ed Muskie broke down and cried (about something VERY understandable) and it was all over for him. Howard Dean screamed. Dan Quayle thought Murphy Brown was a serious issue.
All things being equal though -- assuming Iraq continues to go down the toilet as it is now and assuming no major Indy challenger -- here's my map --
But let's assume things at least stabilize in Iraq...let's assume Brownback doesn't say anything crazy and Giuliani doesn't divorce his latest wife or get caught cheating on her...then Gore has to answer questions about his constant insistance that he was not a candidate...then I think it looks more like this...(and before anyone scolds me about Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Nevada -- just look at how close they have all been in the last two elections)
