2010 Indiana Senate and Congressional Elections

[JSojourner]

It's a tough one for me.  I know both men personally.  Stuzman's a classic theocrat...slightly to the right of Mark Souder or Mike Pence. He's quite the shill for the insurance industry. 

But then, we're talking about Evan Bayh's seat here.  Bayh is a Republican.  Stutzman is a Republican.  I guess, if pressed, I will back Bayh...if only because I suspect he isn't a complete and total James Dobson/Pat Robertson toadie. 

He's probably the best the state can do these days.  It makes me wish we could elect people like his Dad, who actually had some political courage.

Well who knows?  I may be living in Illinois by then...

[JSojourner]

I think Bayh's vote on the Health Care Bill will determine how he does. I think the election could get interestingly close if Bayh votes for the Health Care Bill. I'll tell you now, I think Ellsworth's approval ratings dropped 15 points or more since voting for that Health Care Bill. I campaigned for him in `06 and `08, and I am extremely ticked with him now.

The thing you have to respect about Ellsworth -- whether you like the health care bill or not -- is that he voted for it knowing it was a loser in his district and may well cost him his seat.  Of course, the same would be true of a Republican who voted against it in a district where the issue was a winner.  Dave Reichart might be that guy.  

But yeah, you're right.  We will probably see both Ellsworth and Donnelly dumped in 2010.

[JSojourner]

I think Bayh's vote on the Health Care Bill will determine how he does. I think the election could get interestingly close if Bayh votes for the Health Care Bill. I'll tell you now, I think Ellsworth's approval ratings dropped 15 points or more since voting for that Health Care Bill. I campaigned for him in `06 and `08, and I am extremely ticked with him now.

The think you have to respect about Ellsworth -- whether you like the health care bill or not -- is that he voted for it knowing it was a loser in his district and may well cost him his seat.  Of course, the same would be true of a Republican who voted against it in a district where the issue was a winner.  Dave Reichart might be that guy. 

But yeah, you're right.  We will probably see both Ellsworth and Donnelly dumped in 2010.

Do you think voting against the bill will help save Baron Hill? Or is he still in trouble?

Hill has been pretty successful, but I am not sure if that is due to the fact that his perpetual opponent has a brain the size of a peanut or because he fits well with his constituency.  Probably a little of both.

I would say that, of the three Indiana Democrats most in danger of being unseated, Donnelly is most at-risk.  He would be followed closely by Ellsworth.  And Hill would be farther back, but certainly should not be considered "out of the woods".

Bayh is safe whether he votes for or against the health care bill.  (I predict he will vote against it, in no small part because he receives a tremendous amount of financial support from Lilly and from big insurance.)

The only Republicans who could conceivably mount a successful challenge to Bayh are Governor Daniels and Congressman Pence. But it's important to remember that, when Bayh first declared his candidacy for Senate, our sitting Senator -- and enormously popular, well-monied and prominent Republican -- simply chose to retire.  An aide to Dan Coats told me Coats didn't want to retire.  But he knew there was no way he could beat Bayh. 

As to Daniels and Pence, either could conceivably beat him.  But it's quite possible one, or both, are hoping to succeed the venerable Richard Lugar, who may be serving his last term.

[JSojourner]

I think Bayh's vote on the Health Care Bill will determine how he does. I think the election could get interestingly close if Bayh votes for the Health Care Bill. I'll tell you now, I think Ellsworth's approval ratings dropped 15 points or more since voting for that Health Care Bill. I campaigned for him in `06 and `08, and I am extremely ticked with him now.

The thing you have to respect about Ellsworth -- whether you like the health care bill or not -- is that he voted for it knowing it was a loser in his district and may well cost him his seat.  Of course, the same would be true of a Republican who voted against it in a district where the issue was a winner.  Dave Reichart might be that guy.  

But yeah, you're right.  We will probably see both Ellsworth and Donnelly dumped in 2010.

Who is going to beat Ellsworth or Donnelly?  I would think that the healthcare bill may actually not be that unpopular in Donnelly's district.  It includes the most Democratic areas of the Northern part of the state and went for Obama by 10 points. 

I'm not sure about Ellsworth, but Jackie Walorski is a State Representative who is already hammering away at Donnelly.

[JSojourner]

I think Bayh's vote on the Health Care Bill will determine how he does. I think the election could get interestingly close if Bayh votes for the Health Care Bill. I'll tell you now, I think Ellsworth's approval ratings dropped 15 points or more since voting for that Health Care Bill. I campaigned for him in `06 and `08, and I am extremely ticked with him now.

The thing you have to respect about Ellsworth -- whether you like the health care bill or not -- is that he voted for it knowing it was a loser in his district and may well cost him his seat.  Of course, the same would be true of a Republican who voted against it in a district where the issue was a winner.  Dave Reichart might be that guy.  

But yeah, you're right.  We will probably see both Ellsworth and Donnelly dumped in 2010.

Who is going to beat Ellsworth or Donnelly?  I would think that the healthcare bill may actually not be that unpopular in Donnelly's district.  It includes the most Democratic areas of the Northern part of the state and went for Obama by 10 points. 

I'm not sure about Ellsworth, but Jackie Walorski is a State Representative who is already hammering away at Donnelly.

Isn't she considered a bit of a whackjob?

Indeed she is.  But so were Mark Souder and Mike Pence.  And Chris Chocola.  If the climate is right and if people are still tea partying in 2010, she could pull it off.  Now, if a more mainstream conservative jumps into the GOP primary race, then she's not even going to make it to the general.

[JSojourner]

I think Bayh's vote on the Health Care Bill will determine how he does. I think the election could get interestingly close if Bayh votes for the Health Care Bill. I'll tell you now, I think Ellsworth's approval ratings dropped 15 points or more since voting for that Health Care Bill. I campaigned for him in `06 and `08, and I am extremely ticked with him now.

The thing you have to respect about Ellsworth -- whether you like the health care bill or not -- is that he voted for it knowing it was a loser in his district and may well cost him his seat.  Of course, the same would be true of a Republican who voted against it in a district where the issue was a winner.  Dave Reichart might be that guy.  

But yeah, you're right.  We will probably see both Ellsworth and Donnelly dumped in 2010.

Who is going to beat Ellsworth or Donnelly?  I would think that the healthcare bill may actually not be that unpopular in Donnelly's district.  It includes the most Democratic areas of the Northern part of the state and went for Obama by 10 points. 

I'm not sure about Ellsworth, but Jackie Walorski is a State Representative who is already hammering away at Donnelly.

Isn't she considered a bit of a whackjob?

Indeed she is.  But so were Mark Souder and Mike Pence.  And Chris Chocola.  If the climate is right and if people are still tea partying in 2010, she could pull it off.  Now, if a more mainstream conservative jumps into the GOP primary race, then she's not even going to make it to the general.

Pence and Souder sit in districts far more Republican and conservative than the one that Donnelly sits in.  Chocola was pretty far to the right of IN-02 and he never was able to top 54% of the vote there. 

 

South Bend is a mixed bag for sure.  There are an overwhelming number of anti-choice Catholics and Evangelicals.  But there are also quite a few peace activists, particularly those associated with both Goshen College and North Manchester College. Anti-choice Democrats like Tim Roemer and Donnelly have done well, you're right.  When they ran a pro-choice Dem, Jill Long-Thompson, she lost. So maybe it's just as simple as that.  I hope so.

[JSojourner]

I think Bayh's vote on the Health Care Bill will determine how he does. I think the election could get interestingly close if Bayh votes for the Health Care Bill. I'll tell you now, I think Ellsworth's approval ratings dropped 15 points or more since voting for that Health Care Bill. I campaigned for him in `06 and `08, and I am extremely ticked with him now.

The thing you have to respect about Ellsworth -- whether you like the health care bill or not -- is that he voted for it knowing it was a loser in his district and may well cost him his seat.  Of course, the same would be true of a Republican who voted against it in a district where the issue was a winner.  Dave Reichart might be that guy.  

But yeah, you're right.  We will probably see both Ellsworth and Donnelly dumped in 2010.

How much of a democrat is Ellsworth.  I mean he was the former sherrif right?  I don't necessarily think his vote was principled - he needs big money to win as a democrat in Indiana, and the dems would hang him out to dry if he didnt vote for it.  I feel like both these guys jumped in only because they had a chance to win as a democrat.  The other question is which are most likely to switch to the republican party?  I know Indiana (my family for one) dems, and they are about as moderate of dems as you can get.  Bayh for all intents and purposes has been the only moderate democrat outside of Lieberman.

You're pretty close to being correct, I think.  We have a saying..."Come to Indiana, where our Democrats are Republicans and our Republicans are Constitution Party Members."

Bayh is still pro-choice, but barely.  I would say there are many more moderate Democrats than Lieberman.  Even if you want to factor in his attention-whore campaigning for every Tom, Dick and Sarah with an R by their name, Lieberman still votes pro-choice, pro-gay (for the most part) and pro-environment.  Not sure if he remains anti-gun.  He does seem to be moderating fiscally.  And his foreign policy has been simple -- "Whatever the IDF wants."

But taken as a whole, I would suggest that Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor and quite probably Mark Begich and Kay Hagan are more conservative than Bayh.  Definitely more than Lieberman. 

Still, Bayh is about as far from the liberal warrior his father was. And you're spot-on.  There are hardly any liberal Democrats in Indiana.  They just don't win election.  Pete Visclosky does, but he gets elected largely based on the suburban Chicago and inner-city Gary votes.  The one inner city CD in Indianapolis tends to elect liberals.  But we'll never have a liberal Governor or Senator again.  At least not in my lifetime.

Frankly, though that makes me sad, I am relieved to have a Senator Lugar and a Senator Bayh.  As opposed to a Senator Quayle and Senator Coats.  Or a Senator Pence and Senator Souder.

[JSojourner]

I think Bayh's vote on the Health Care Bill will determine how he does. I think the election could get interestingly close if Bayh votes for the Health Care Bill. I'll tell you now, I think Ellsworth's approval ratings dropped 15 points or more since voting for that Health Care Bill. I campaigned for him in `06 and `08, and I am extremely ticked with him now.

The thing you have to respect about Ellsworth -- whether you like the health care bill or not -- is that he voted for it knowing it was a loser in his district and may well cost him his seat.  Of course, the same would be true of a Republican who voted against it in a district where the issue was a winner.  Dave Reichart might be that guy.  

But yeah, you're right.  We will probably see both Ellsworth and Donnelly dumped in 2010.

How much of a democrat is Ellsworth.  I mean he was the former sherrif right?  I don't necessarily think his vote was principled - he needs big money to win as a democrat in Indiana, and the dems would hang him out to dry if he didnt vote for it.  I feel like both these guys jumped in only because they had a chance to win as a democrat.  The other question is which are most likely to switch to the republican party?  I know Indiana (my family for one) dems, and they are about as moderate of dems as you can get.  Bayh for all intents and purposes has been the only moderate democrat outside of Lieberman.

You're pretty close to being correct, I think.  We have a saying..."Come to Indiana, where our Democrats are Republicans and our Republicans are Constitution Party Members."

Bayh is still pro-choice, but barely.  I would say there are many more moderate Democrats than Lieberman.  Even if you want to factor in his attention-whore campaigning for every Tom, Dick and Sarah with an R by their name, Lieberman still votes pro-choice, pro-gay (for the most part) and pro-environment.  Not sure if he remains anti-gun.  He does seem to be moderating fiscally.  And his foreign policy has been simple -- "Whatever the IDF wants."

But taken as a whole, I would suggest that Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor and quite probably Mark Begich and Kay Hagan are more conservative than Bayh.  Definitely more than Lieberman.  

Still, Bayh is about as far from the liberal warrior his father was. And you're spot-on.  There are hardly any liberal Democrats in Indiana.  They just don't win election.  Pete Visclosky does, but he gets elected largely based on the suburban Chicago and inner-city Gary votes.  The one inner city CD in Indianapolis tends to elect liberals.  But we'll never have a liberal Governor or Senator again.  At least not in my lifetime.

Frankly, though that makes me sad, I am relieved to have a Senator Lugar and a Senator Bayh.  As opposed to a Senator Quayle and Senator Coats.  Or a Senator Pence and Senator Souder.

I remember the last dem Indiana governor, O'Bannon, who caused my poor (as in monetarily poor) grandmother incredible pain when he raised property taxes and sent his minions out to collect.  Old people, left and right, were losing their homes.  Suffice to say, she and the rest of the state are very happy with Daniels.  Mark Begich and Kay Hagan have not shown me at all that they are anything but liberals.  Ben Nelson, Mark Pryor sure.  Landrieu sneaks by.  The downtown district could elect a republican in a wave - we got close a couple of times.

That's odd.  My wife and I paid far less in taxes under Bayh, O'Bannon and Kernan that we did under Governor Orr.  The old Republican excise tax on vehicles was crushingly oppressive.  

And Daniels has hardly cut taxes, but he has resisted raising them.  I am not sure why people are terribly enamored with him, though, unless they happen to live in an area where some major infrastructure project received a big shot in the arm from his sale of the Indiana Toll Road.

As to IN-07, it's the district I know the very least about.  Representative Carson did struggle and I think that can only partly be blamed on her struggle with terminal illness.  If the GOP managed to field an African-American candidate who had some gravitas, I could see the district flipping in a Republican year.  It really is a largely black area with a growing Hispanic population, as well.