UK General Election Prediction Thread

[DaWN]

Some rating changes:

Crawley - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Hastings & Rye - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Milton Keynes North - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Milton Keynes South - Tossup/Tilts Tory

Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory

Bristol North West - Likely Labour

Likely Labour -> Lean Labour

Camborne & Redruth - Lean Tory
Filton & Bradley Stoke - Lean Tory
South Swindon - Lean Tory
Totnes - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Plymouth, Sutton & Devonport - Lean Labour

Lean Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Labour

Bedford - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Ipswich - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Norwich North - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Peterborough - Tossup/Tilts Tory

Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory

South Cambridgeshire - Likely Tory

Likely Tory -> Safe Tory

Stevenage - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Gower - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Vale of Clwyd - Tossup/Tilts Labour

Tossup/Tilts Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Tory

Halesowen & Rowley Regis - Lean Tory
Nuneaton - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Stoke-on-Trent North - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Warwick & Leamington - Tossup/Tilts Labour

Tossup/Tilts Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Tory

Telford - Tossup/Tilts Tory

Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory

Bassetlaw - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Broxtowe - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Derby North - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Northampton North - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Northampton South - Tossup/Tilts Tory

Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory

Bolsover - Safe Labour

Safe Labour -> Lean Labour

Derby South - Safe Labour

Safe Labour -> Likely Labour

Gedling - Lean Labour

Lean Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Labour

Mansfield - Lean Tory
North East Debyshire - Lean Tory
Sherwood - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Colne Valley - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Penistone & Stockbridge - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Pudsey - Tossup/Tilts Tory

Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory

Dewsbury - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Rother Valley - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Sc u nthorpe - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Wakefield - Tossup/Tilts Labour

Tossup/Tilts Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Tory

Don Valley - Lean Labour

Lean Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Labour

Scarborough & Whitby - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Altrincham & Sale West - Likely Tory
Macclesfield - Likely Tory

Likely Tory -> Safe Tory

Barrow and Furness - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Crewe & Nantwich - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Warrington South - Tossup/Tilts Tory

Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory

Blackpool North & Cleveleys - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Blackpool South - Lean Labour
Bolton North East - Lean Labour
Wirral West - Lean Labour

Lean Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Labour

Bury North - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Bury South - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Weaver Vale - Tossup/Tilts Labour
Workington - Tossup/Tilts Labour

Tossup/Tilts Labour -> Tossup/Tilts Tory

Heywood & Middleton - Likely Labour

Likely Labour -> Lean Labour

Darlington - Tossup/Tilts Tory
Stockton South - Tossup/Tilts Tory

Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory

Hartlepool - Likely Labour

Likely Labour -> Lean Labour

Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland - Lean Tory

Lean Tory -> Likely Tory

Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill - Likely SNP
Rutherglen & Hamilton West - Likely SNP

Likely SNP -> Lean SNP

Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath - Likely SNP

Likely SNP -> Tossup/Tilts SNP


Mostly general changes in order to reflect the state of the election as I know see it. I'll probably make one more set of changes as we close in on election day.

[DaWN]

Final Changes

Linking all the quotes takes forever and I have things I need to do, so just take my word for it that these were the original ratings.

Chingford & Woodford Green: Lean Tory -> Tossup/Tilts Tory
IDS doesn't bring out the hate in me that he did a few years ago. I guess that's what time out of the limelight does. I'm almost rooting for Labour here.

Hornsey & Wood Green: Likely Labour -> Safe Labour
Would have changed this one last time if I noticed it. But I didn't.

Hastings & Rye: Lean Tory -> Tossup/Tilts Tory
Mainly because of a gaffe from the Tory candidate. This goes back to my original rating btw.

Guildford: Likely Tory -> Lean Tory
You know, if the Lib Dems could stop f!cking everything up, that would be great.

Wokingham: Lean Tory -> Likely Tory
Unfortunately, we haven't been hearing anything from this seat which gives me the impression Redwood is home and dry. Can't tell you how badly I'd like to be wrong about this one.

South Cambridgeshire: Safe Tory -> Likely Tory
Again returning to the original rating. I'm fickle and changeable, what can I say.

Brecon & Radnorshire: Lean Lib Dem -> Tossup/Tilts Lib Dem
Out of caution. I still think Dodds will win though.

Wrexham: Tossup/Tilts Tory -> Lean Tory
Another one I would have done last time if I noticed. This one falls even in a 2017-redux I think.

Edinburgh South: Lean Labour -> Likely Labour
pleaseletthesnpdobadlypleaseletthesnpdobadlypleaseletthesnpdobadlypleaseletthesnpdobadly

Glasgow North East: Likely SNP -> Lean SNP
See above.

North East Fife: Safe Lib Dem -> Likely Lib Dem
Out of caution, because the SNP always get f!cking lucky in seats like this.

Which leads to a final seat change prediction of:
Conservative gain from Labour
Ashfield
Barrow & Furness
Basseltaw
Bedford
Bishop Auckland
Bury North
Bury South
Canterbury
Colne Valley
Crewe & Nantwich
Dagenham
Darlington
Derby North
Dewsbury
Dudley North
Gower
Great Grimsby
High Peak
Ipswich
Keighley
Lincoln
Newcastle-under-Lyme
Penistone & Stockbridge
Peterborough
Portsmouth South
Rother Valley
Sc**nthorpe
Stockton South
Stoke-on-Trent North
Stroud
Vale of Clwyd
Wakefield
Warrington South
Warwick & Leamington
Weaver Vale
Wolverhampton SW
Workington
Wrexham

Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat
Eastbourne
North Norfolk

Labour gain from Conservative
Putney

Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Brecon & Radnorshire
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Richmond Park
St Albans
Winchester

Liberal Democrat gain from Labour
Sheffield Hallam

Liberal Democrat gain from Plaid Cymru
Ceredigion

Liberal Democrat gain from SNP
North East Fife

SNP gain from Labour
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
East Lothian
Glasgow North East
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Midlothian
Rutherglen & Hamilton West

SNP gain from Conservative
Stirling

DUP gain from Independent
North Down

Speaker gain from Labour
Chorley

And for fun...
Incumbent with largest margin of defeat: Zac Goldsmith
Closest seat: Canterbury
Safest seat: Liverpool Walton
Safest Tory seat: Christchurch
Seat that will be agonisingly close but no cigar and then the hated incumbent will retire at the next election blunting the possible joy in a gain: Wokingham
Seat that will most annoy me: probably Dulwich & West Norwood lmao
Seat that Twitter and the media got their pants in a twist about that will end up with the largest majority for the incumbent party: Leigh