CO-SEN Megathread: Cory In The House

[DaWN]

Right now, I am firmly convinced that Cory Gardner is headed to defeat in 2020. Not a single statewide Republican won in Colorado this year, Republicans were destroyed in the Denver metropolitan area, and Gardner is one of the most unpopular Senators in the country. Moreover, Trump will lose Colorado by at least high single digits, and the state's demographics will only become more unfavorable to Republicans over the next two years. So long as the Democrats nominate a competent candidate, they should have this race.

All of this is true, but don't forget Gardner is an incumbent, and therefore will run 50+ points ahead of Trump and win this clearly Safe R race.

[DaWN]

Right now, I am firmly convinced that Cory Gardner is headed to defeat in 2020. Not a single statewide Republican won in Colorado this year, Republicans were destroyed in the Denver metropolitan area, and Gardner is one of the most unpopular Senators in the country. Moreover, Trump will lose Colorado by at least high single digits, and the state's demographics will only become more unfavorable to Republicans over the next two years. So long as the Democrats nominate a competent candidate, they should have this race.

All of this is true, but don't forget Gardner is an incumbent, and therefore will run 50+ points ahead of Trump and win this clearly Safe R race.

2018 taught us that incumbency is no longer as powerful a factor as it used to be.

I was being sarcastic. I think this is Likely D.

[DaWN]

Gardner is likely going to lose, but why does Atlas pretend he is DOA no matter what? You guys seriously think he'd have no chance of winning even in a red wave against a weak opponent?

It's not Safe D this early, but I'd argue that if he needs the political environment dart to hit the dartboard in precisely right place and also get a weak opponent to have a shot then that's as close to DOA as anyone not named Doug Jones is going to get at this point.

Besides, McCaskill and Donnelly faced weak opponents in wave years for their party and still got thumped. Sure Missouri and Indiana are more Republican than Colorado is Democratic, and I'm not denying that in that circumstance Gardner would have a good shot - but arguing, as most of the pundits invariably do, that it's a Hyper Competitive Tossup Race because there might be a red wave is a bit silly, as is arguing he's even favoured if Republicans are having a good year elsewhere. He's just a generic R incumbent in a light-to-medium blue state. Ultra strong candidates don't beat incumbents who talk about nothing about abortion and condoms for the entire campaign by just 2 points in one of the most Republican years in recent history.

I can't speak for others, but I'm so bullish about this race for two reasons: firstly, that the main lessons I learnt from 2018 were not to underestimate partisanship and polarisation, and that 2016 trends are continuing whether we like it or not, and secondly, that hearing the pundits and the R hacks drone on about this Hyper Competitive Tossup Race for the next year and a half is going to be so mind numbing, I'd rather stake my counter position now.

[DaWN]

It doesn't matter. A Potted Plant (D) would probably be enough to defeat Gardner, providing said plant had no scandals.

[DaWN]

It doesn't matter. A Potted Plant (D) would probably be enough to defeat Gardner, providing said plant had no scandals.

A Potted Plant would beat Trump in CO

I think Gardner can outperform Trump by 2-3, Dems would really like a good candidate here, because they do not want this to fall into Tossup category, because Gardner is a good campaigner so, they have to consistently stay ahead to avoid risking this easy pickup

Even if the Dem-Trump margin in CO stays the same (all that that likely?), outperforming Trump by 2-3 won't be enough. There's no reason to think he'd manage that anyway - unless he gets a crap opponent (i.e a scandled potted plant or Todd Akin the potted plant), I can't see legions of D nominee - Gardner voters.

[DaWN]

Gardner is over. D+1

This won't make a difference, actually. Firstly because he's DOA anyway, and secondly because nobody is going to care about this in November 2020. It'll just be another notch added to his voting record that's already an easy target for the Dem nominee.

[DaWN]

Neguse would be one of the weakest candidates possible and would alienate Denver area(Arapahoe/Adams/Jefferson) moderates, and could actually lose

Johnston and Romanoff both would win by 3-6

If Hickenlooper or Perlmutter change their mind, this becomes Likely D

Just LOL.

Also, its already likely D, so I dont know what you mean by that.

Gardner is favored to lose, but not DOA, Dems win the AG race by 4 in a D+8-9 year, so Gardner could squeak it if he ends up with a trash-tier opponent like Neguse, Johnston and Romanoff aren't sure deals either, they'll win after SMP and DSCC spend tons of money. Perlmutter would become an immediate frontrunner and Hickenlooper would make Gardner DOA. Candidate quality is important, as shown in CO downballot elections

You're confusing trash-tier candidate and underwhelming candidate. A trash-tier candidate is Todd Akin, and yes, if Gardner gets an opponent like that, he could very well win. If Gardner pulls a slightly lower-tier opponent (still far from guaranteed, wasn't Krysten Sinema passing on a senate run at this point last cycle?) he might not lose by a large amount, but I don't see circumstances under which he wins outside of a huge red wave. If you think that's going to happen, fair enough, but be honest about that instead of going "But Gardner will win if he gets a weak candidate opponent because he's a Strong Moderate Incumbent^TM who will create legions of D Presidential Nominee-Gardner voters because reasons."

And yes, candidate quality is important. Do you know what's more important? The fundamentals. Gardner is an unpopular incumbent in a light blue state in a presidential year with a president who turns off Colorado's most important voters.

[DaWN]

I'd wager Trump being toxic in the state and Gardner being a weak unpopular incumbent will overcome Neguse being a #weakcandidate but each to their own I suppose.

[DaWN]

Fun fact: Blanche Lincoln outraised John Boozman in 2010

[DaWN]

To be honest, Gardner has a tough, but doable path

At this point, in the 2016 cycle, Ron Johnson was headed for a Blanching at the hands of Russ Feingold

At this point, in the 2018 cycle, McCaskill and Donnelly were going to be Blanched, while Heitkamp won by double digits

It's still early, and anything can happen

You're going to be very disappointed come November 2020.

[DaWN]

Saw on DKE that Jena Griswold is considering. She’d probably easily win the primary as the only woman in the race if she ran and she’d be the youngest senator if victorious.

I'd rather not given she just got elected SoS last year and we have plenty of good candidates in Colorado

On the other hand, she'd have to wait until Bennet retires or Polis is termed out to take a stab at a higher statewide office. She might be better off striking when the iron is hot.

[DaWN]

Here are some good pieces on Gardner's campaign strategy

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/30/cory-gardner-colorado-senate-reelect-1292266

https://www.denverpost.com/2019/04/29/cory-gardner-republicans-democrats-socialism/

If Gardner's strategy is going to consist of yelling 'SOCIALISM' then he's going to do even worse than I thought he would

[DaWN]

It's fairly telling most of the arguments I'm hearing for why Gardner is definitely in a Hyper Competitive Tossup Race^TM are similar to the ones I heard why Heller was definitely in a Hyper Competitive Tossup Race^TM.

[DaWN]

Lol, you really think Hickenlooper would be a Lieberman or Nelson in the Senate? Sure he'd do some stupid moderate posturing but I'd bet he'd almost certainly toe the line whenever it was necessary

In any case I'd come to terms with it now. If he runs he'd demolish in the primary and then crush Gardner under his foot.

[DaWN]

I seriously think Hickenlooper might be one of the few Democrats who could lose the race. It's very clear that he doesn't want to be a Senator, and he may not be exciting enough for the base to turn out for him. Gardner will attack him aggressively for running for President and not caring about Colorado. It just might work.

Only on this forum would a take like this be posted unironically

[DaWN]

Well I'm glad I won't have to spend the next 18 months arguing with anyone over this race because everyone will just accept its Safe D and move on. Not the biggest fan of Hick but he'll almost certainly vote like a Generic D and toe the party line when necessary so whatever.

[DaWN]

Look, there are perfectly legitimately reasons to dislike Hickenlooper but for those of you who do dislike him - seriously, come to terms with it now. He's inevitable. You'll save yourself a lot of avoidable anguish if you just accept it.

[DaWN]

The nuance I would add here is that while I respect more leftwing Dems wanting a more progressive candidate (and I think it's laudable from some posters here to draw a distinction between more conservative states and places like Colorado where a leftist candidate probably can win) I think there's still a point to not declare civil war everytime you lose a primary. Even the most right-wing Democrats are a lot better than Republicans.

Like, fight out the primary and sure put pressure on the guy to vote more left, but don't BernieBro it.

So we should just sit back and let this guy win? This is someone who compared bernie's policies to stalin!  HE's the divisive one! Healthcare for all, single payer, 15 minimum wage, and raising taxes on the rich are things that need to happen and he is completely against them. Therefore I will fight tooth and the nail to make sure he loses the primary!

See this is precisely what I mean. I agree he's too centrist and hopelessly moderate and maybe someone more progressive would be preferable.

But he's inevitable

Getting worked up over it like this is just going to make you bitter in the long run. It's not worth it.

[DaWN]

Looks like literally the only group of people not to have accepted Hickenlooper's inevitability is the pundits lmao

[DaWN]

Why is Atlas treating it as Likely D or Safe D?

Because it is Likely/Safe D

[DaWN]

I wish Sanders would have endorsed Romanoff. Maybe then his fundraising would be better, and he might have a fighting chance (or at least more than now).

As much as I like what Sanders, it's frustrating that he hasn't done more to boost progressive candidates down-ballot this cycle.

Sanders doesn't want to waste his time endorsing a candidate who has no chance. It's also possible he doesn't want to do anything to push Hickenlooper further away from the left, like, for instance, antagonising him by pointlessly endorsing his primary opponent.

[DaWN]

I wish Sanders would have endorsed Romanoff. Maybe then his fundraising would be better, and he might have a fighting chance (or at least more than now).

As much as I like what Sanders, it's frustrating that he hasn't done more to boost progressive candidates down-ballot this cycle.

Sanders doesn't want to waste his time endorsing a candidate who has no chance. It's also possible he doesn't want to do anything to push Hickenlooper further away from the left, like, for instance, antagonising him by pointlessly endorsing his primary opponent.

Hickenlooper would firmly oppose Sanders' legislation regardless of whether he endorsed his opponent.

No he wouldn't. He would vote like a generic D.

[DaWN]

Is there a chance Hickenlooper could loose the primary

No.

if so does Gardner have a chance?

No.

[DaWN]

lol what a dumbarse

He'll still beat Gardner by miles of course. He's no longer a lock in the primary though. Romanoff will also beat Gardner by miles.

[DaWN]

This race really is going to be the NJ-SEN 2018 of this cycle, huh?

"This scandal will surely doom Hickenlooper this time!" - Atlas and the Pundits, now until November


I'm going to let you all into a secret. Hickenlooper is an arse but he has a (D) next to his name and that will be enough.