UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[DaWN]

I think we're more likely than not to get a second referendum with the option to Remain. May would take that over a General Election. People have long questioned whether her heart is really in Brexit.

Well, it would be a lovely solution to this entire mess but nobody with any power wants it to happen, least of all May, who probably knows it will finally destroy the last vestiges of any authority she might have in the Conservative party.

She would take it over a general election after what happened last time, I agree with you there, but she won't do either. I think it's time to accept that the second referendum just isn't feasible unfortunately.

[DaWN]

I think we're more likely than not to get a second referendum with the option to Remain. May would take that over a General Election. People have long questioned whether her heart is really in Brexit.

Well, it would be a lovely solution to this entire mess but nobody with any power wants it to happen, least of all May, who probably knows it will finally destroy the last vestiges of any authority she might have in the Conservative party.

If she presides over a No Deal Brexit, she'll go down with Ted Heath's "three day week". This will be one to quite happily punt to the voters.

You're thinking as if she has the best interests of the nation at heart, which I can assure you she doesn't. Her main concern is keeping what remains of her authority in the party, and any stance which compromises Brexit will go down like a lead balloon with the parliamentary party and the membership. The Conservative party is the self-preservation society I'm afraid, and that extends right up to the top.

And yeah, No Deal Brexit is going to be a disaster and will sink the Conservative party, but it's not like Labour can turn around and say 'we told you so' because they, errr, didn't. If that is the case either our entire political status quo collapses and something new rises from the ashes (the good outcome) or every election from now until eternity is a close nailbiter between the two main parties because tribalism and 'I don't want to let the other guys win' (the bad outcome).

[DaWN]

No Deal Brexit

Parliament won't let that happen. If May wanted to keep her authority in the Tory Party, why agree to this deal which pleases no-one?

You have far too much faith in our esteemed elected representatives.

[DaWN]

hahahahah we're so f!cked

[DaWN]

Of course that’s not saying the Conservatives, or anyone, have many options given the dire lack of talent in Parliament.

Pretty much the only reason May has survived as long as she has I'd say. The lack of any remotely viable successor is a very serious problem for when her position finally becomes untenable.

I don't think Javid would have any race-related problems however - enough Tory members who would have had a problem jumped ship to UKIP or wherever years ago, no doubt leaving a 'comfortable with non-white people' majority in the party membership. his problems stem from the fact he's a lightweight empty suit who would get found out more or less instantly. But again, what are the alternatives?

[DaWN]

I mean there's still very little polling evidence that Yes even could win another referendum. Besides, I'll echo what I said in this thread a few weeks ago - Nicola Sturgeon has countless negative qualities, but stupidity is not one of them - she will not call a referendum she thinks she will lose, and even if she does, No will not repeat its mistakes that nearly cost them last time.

[DaWN]

Also anyone else find it a bit ironic that apparently the reaction of the Scots to the UK leaving a 'union' and causing a complete disaster is going to be an overwhelming desire to leave another 'union'?....

[DaWN]

^^ Why would it be a disaster? Czechoslovakia split, they're doing fine...
Some unions are unhealthy like Belgium and the UK, it's time to let go of our imperial legacy..

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1072463780007809024

^^ hmmm

I was referring to Brexit as the disaster. And really, trying to call Scotland being part of the union imperialism is pushing it a bit, don't you think? It's maybe not ideal for either side and definitely constitutional reforms will be necessary at some point in the medium term, but this isn't like India or some of the African states where we were clearly exploiting lands and peoples, the Scots are integrated democratically into the union.

I do get the feeling arguing about this could deprive us of all of our sanity though, so I'll leave it at that I think.

[DaWN]

The Tories will cling onto power like barnacles to a ship. They'll be dragged into a general election kicking and screaming.

Frankly I only see two options now: No Deal or a second referendum. One of those two is much MUCH more likely than the other.

[DaWN]

Not a good enough result for May to make her troubles go away, while also being a very poor result for the ERG, at least when one ignores their own ridiculous spinning and special pleading: to lose nearly two to one in a vote that you have spent months lobbying for is a bit embarrassing.

Pretty much agree with this, with the addition of noting the irony of John McDonnell claiming May no longer has a mandate to leave because a third of her MPs don't support her.

[DaWN]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/jan/08/heathrow-airport-departures-suspended-after-drone-sighting

Lol! Joke Country!

On a side note, I'm supposed to be flying home from Heathrow this weekend, so they'd better get this sorted quick....

A sentiment I can hardly disagree with, although not because of this. Even though it's really stupid that it's happened AGAIN, there's really very little to be immediately done. If after three days the authorities have been as crap with it as they have been with Gatwick, then I'll be more inclined to agree.

[DaWN]

In the least surprising development in recent political history in this country, May has lost. The final vote is 202-432

[DaWN]

Corbyn has tabled a vote of no confidence in the government. On any other night I'd think it likely the senile fool had finally lost the plot, but with such anti-May sentiment at a height for obvious reasons, it might just be the right time.

[DaWN]

So aside from wasting nearly a third of the remaining available time, delaying the vote by a month achieved... what exactly?

Absolutely f!ck all, of course. What else were you expecting?

[DaWN]

In an alternate world the DUP would have left the government, guaranteeing  a successful no-confidence motion and labour would hold a 20+ point lead on the Tories. All labour had to do for the alternate world to be a reality was to not make a hardcore anti-semite their leader

In an Alternate World May never blows her 20 point lead she had one month before election day in 2017. If that happens she wins a landslide and she would have had the mandate she needed

I'm not so sure. She obviously would have kept the majority with a better campaign, and probably increased it a little, but I think people disapproving of Corbyn grudgingly returning to Labour by election day was inevitable. My muother for instance hates Corbyn, but voted Labour in the end because she didn't want to even risk giving May the 400-seat landslide she wanted. The effect of this was inflated by the campaigns, but I think it was always going to be there (hindsight is of course a wonderful thing). It's also something I wouldn't bet too strongly on happening again, given Corbyn's previous year and a half of doing absolutely nothing at all to endear himself to those who didn't like him much and voted for him grudgingly, but since Labour appear to be at a higher starting point it probably won't matter as much.

I will say two things in general:
a) I think an election soon is unlikely
b) If there is an election soon, I would be very surprised if the result differed much from the 2017 one.

[DaWN]

It's becoming a bit like Charlie Brown and the football with all this Labour split stuff. It didn't happen the first 834 times it was reported as being imminent, it won't happen the 835th. I maintain that if the people who need to do it had the guts to do it they would have done it a long, long time ago.

In any case, it's probably too late to make a difference about Brexit now, and while such a party would theoretically do very well at the ballot box, remember that we as a country can't have nice things - I can just imagine the voters going 'Well I would vote for your not-awful party, but I'm going to vote for one of the awful two to keep out the other awful one' or something along those lines.

We'll be left with The Awful Twosome as our Prime Ministerial choices for a while yet I'm afraid.

[DaWN]

The answer to the question 'Why don't they join the Lib Dems?' is pretty simple: they're still toxic to the electorate because of the coalition and even moderate Labour MPs aren't going to forgive easily. Why join a ship that's barely staying afloat and that you hate anyway, when you could build a brand new ship that could achieve far more?

[DaWN]

Well, two days after I said it probably wouldn't happen, it happens. I should start calling myself NostraDaWNmus.

I'm glad I'll have someone to vote for without holding my nose, but I do worry about the long-term prospects of this new party. I feel people seriously underrate to embedded partisanship in this country, even with the current two leaders of the main parties.

[DaWN]

Well, two days after I said it probably wouldn't happen, it happens. I should start calling myself NostraDaWNmus.

I'm glad I'll have someone to vote for without holding my nose, but I do worry about the long-term prospects of this new party. I feel people seriously underrate to embedded partisanship in this country, even with the current two leaders of the main parties.

It might just be mass whip-resigning rather than a new party, of course.

Well, yes, but let's hope for everyone's sake that isn't the case, as that would just be downright embarrassing going to all this trouble for something so insubstantial.

[DaWN]

Well, two days after I said it probably wouldn't happen, it happens. I should start calling myself NostraDaWNmus.

I'm glad I'll have someone to vote for without holding my nose, but I do worry about the long-term prospects of this new party. I feel people seriously underrate to embedded partisanship in this country, even with the current two leaders of the main parties.

It might just be mass whip-resigning rather than a new party, of course.

Well, yes, but let's hope for everyone's sake that isn't the case, as that would just be downright embarrassing going to all this trouble for something so insubstantial.

For f!cks sake

[DaWN]

Well, it's disappointing but it's something. At the very least it shows the Senile Communist and his puppet master that not everyone agrees with their little Englander hard Brexit. It might even force them to try and actually oppose the government on the most important issue of the day, although let's not get ahead of ourselves.

[DaWN]

It's becoming a bit like Charlie Brown and the football with all this Labour split stuff. It didn't happen the first 834 times it was reported as being imminent, it won't happen the 835th. I maintain that if the people who need to do it had the guts to do it they would have done it a long, long time ago.

This aged well.

If you'd care to read up a bit, you'll be able to see that I acknowledged that this prediction was poor.

[DaWN]

They've successfully undermined Labour's first left-wing leader in years by painting him as some sort of left-wing Hitler (despite the fact he was elected leader both times with over 50% of the vote).

These are not mutually exclusive statements.

[DaWN]

They've successfully undermined Labour's first left-wing leader in years by painting him as some sort of left-wing Hitler (despite the fact he was elected leader both times with over 50% of the vote).

These are not mutually exclusive statements.

Oh so he was elected leader twice because he was some sort of left-wing Hitler?

I never said that. My point was that being elected twice does nothing to actually disprove he was a left-wing Hitler. He isn't - even I wouldn't dream of going that far - but his being elected in a bizarre fluke in 2015 where the establishment did literally everything wrong, and in 2016 where the Labour electorate had become very left-wing does not prove that he isn't one ideology or another.

[DaWN]

So how much of this is due to anti-semitism in Labour

It, or rather Corbyn's lacklustre response to it, is certainly a major factor, but I think it's secondary to Brexit and general discontent.