List of crossover seats

[Roll Roons]

This is just including races that have been called so far. There will almost certainly be a few more in both categories, and I'll add them as they come in.

Trump/Dem:
AK-AL (Peltola)
ME-02 (Golden)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)

Biden/GOP:
AZ-01 (Schweikert)
AZ-06 (Ciscomani)
CA-22 (Valadao)
CA-27 (Garcia)
CA-40 (Kim)
CA-45 (Steel)
NE-02 (Bacon)
NJ-07 (Kean)
NY-01 (LaLota)
NY-03 (Santos)
NY-04 (D'Esposito)
NY-17 (Lawler)
NY-19 (Molinaro)
NY-22 (Williams)
OR-05 (Chavez-DeRemer)
PA-01 (Fitzpatrick)
VA-02 (Kiggans)

[Roll Roons]

Update: Added AK-AL, ME-02 and WA-03 for Trump/Dem. I know the first two won't officially be called until after RCV, but there is virtually no way the incumbents don't win in both.

I also added NY-22 and OR-05 for Biden/GOP. It may be technically possible for Democrats to win those, but it seems extremely unlikely. I also removed AZ-06 for now. I think Ciscomani barely pulls it out in the end, but there's a lot of uncertainty here.

[Roll Roons]

I added the AZ seats and CA-45 in light of Wasserman's calls.

5 Trump-district Democrats is all but confirmed as Ken Calvert looks likely to survive and there is no reason to think Kevin Kiley will lose.

There are currently 15 Biden-district Republicans with the possibility of up to four more from California (CA-13, CA-22, CA-27, CA-47).

[Roll Roons]

DDHQ called it for Garcia and considering that Smith only barely won today's update, they were justified in doing so. She needed a 2018-type blue shift and if it was happening, we would have seen it by now. 

Adding him to the list as the 16th Biden-seat Republican.

Three more Biden districts in California may be represented by Republicans: CA-13 (completely up in the air), CA-22 (leaning towards Valadao after today's updates) and CA-47 (Porter is favored but not completely out of the woods just yet).

CO-03 is the only Trump district that's really still in doubt. While Boebert is very likely to win, there may be some absentees/uncured ballots that give Frisch a narrow path to victory.

[Roll Roons]

Per Wasserman's call, the amazing David Valadao is the 17th Biden-district Republican.

With that, CA-13 is the last undecided seat in the country and will determine whether or not there are 17 or 18 Biden Republicans, and 22 or 23 crossover seats in total.