Election models megathread

[Roll Roons]

Interesting how the model gives Kelly a 62% chance of winning right now, which seems quite generous compared to 53% for Warnock

There hasn't been much GE polling in Arizona because the primary isn't fully settled, but there were some earlier polls that showed Walker leading by a bit.

[Roll Roons]

The senate model is clearly underestimating Republicans due to reliance on polls, the GOP has outperformed what the polls said in the Senate 4 cycles in a row, 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020, in all 4 cycles the GOP won more senate seats than most projected, no reason to believe the polls have corrected for the bias.

I know that’s true for 3 of the elections, but are you sure about 2018? I thought the results matched the polls in the Senate then - it was only Democrat hopium that was defeated.

The finial 2018 FL Senate rcp average was was Nelson+2.4
The final rcp average for Indiana Senate 2018 was Donnelly +1.3, Braun won by 6

Now do the other races that year for comparison.

The RCP average also had Missouri as a dead heat but Hawley won by 6.