Who will carry Collin, TX?

[Roll Roons]

I think GOP is still going to win in Collin in 2024 no matter who the candidate is, but I think a MAGA candidate could make it very close, Trump only won by 4 pts here, but a generic republican like Cornyn won by 10 points in the same election. So, it all depends.

Trump = 1-2 points
DeSantis or someone more friendly = 5-7 points

Why would a trump type Republican not do well there? It’s not a very liberal type suburb

In eight years, it also swung from Romney +31 to Trump +17 to Trump +4. This is not Trump country at all.

And Trump lost ground in a lot of traditionally conservative suburban counties. Williamson, TN swung against him by 9 points. Waukesha, WI swung against him by 6. Hamilton, IN swung against him by 12.

[Roll Roons]

I think GOP is still going to win in Collin in 2024 no matter who the candidate is, but I think a MAGA candidate could make it very close, Trump only won by 4 pts here, but a generic republican like Cornyn won by 10 points in the same election. So, it all depends.

Trump = 1-2 points
DeSantis or someone more friendly = 5-7 points

Why would a trump type Republican not do well there? It’s not a very liberal type suburb

It's a white college degree majority county, most people are traditional conservatives who like low taxes, but they don't like Trump manners. I know many Trump-Biden and Biden-Cornyn voters, they didn't like Trump manners.

That, and it's also undergoing huge demographic changes.

[Roll Roons]

I don't think this is a Trump specific trend, there's just a lot of people moving in, who just happen to be D leaning, so I'll say the Democrats, the more interesting question imo is who wins Denton.

I'll be watching Denton very closely. If Biden wins it, I think he's won Texas.